[Audio version] Jinshi Futures Breakfast on January 9, 2024 (Tuesday)

【Futures Morning Rush-Audio Version】

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Macro News

1. Ukrainian military officials said that Russia launched a large-scale missile attack on several regions of Ukraine during peak hours on Monday morning, and the whole country of Ukraine was on air raid alert. The Ukrainian Air Force said on the social platform Telegram that Kiev was threatened by ballistic missiles. Military officials in Krivyh, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Khmelnitsky also said that their cities were subjected to "large-scale missile attacks" by Russia.

2. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of January 8, 2024, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 2098.60 points, up 70.9% from the previous period.

3. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a symposium on promoting green and low-carbon industrial development on January 8. The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to steadily promote carbon emission reduction in the industrial field, coordinate the promotion of carbon peak in key industries such as industry, steel, building materials, petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals, vigorously develop green and low-carbon industries, promote green upgrading of traditional industries, and accelerate the promotion of coordinated efficiency of pollution reduction and carbon reduction. Accelerate the construction of green manufacturing and service systems, deeply implement green manufacturing projects, strengthen the construction of green and low-carbon standard systems, and actively create green consumption scenarios.

4. According to the information obtained by the reporter of Securities China News Agency from the industry, Dalian Commodity Exchange issued the "Notice on the Implementation of the 2024 Fee Reduction Plan" to its member units on the 8th. According to the notice, the fee reduction is divided into two parts: transaction reduction and position reduction. In terms of transaction reduction, the transaction fee of members' futures and options varieties will be reduced by 30%, and iron ore futures, coking coal futures and coke futures varieties will not be implemented for the time being. Specific programmatic reporting customers recognized by the exchange will not participate in the transaction reduction. In terms of position reduction, the average daily position of members' futures and options varieties in 2023 will be used as the base. If the average daily position of the member's variety in a certain month in 2024 is not less than the base, the member's transaction fee payable for that variety in that month will be reduced by 10%. Iron ore futures, coking coal futures and coke futures varieties will not be implemented for the time being. Specific programmatic reporting customers recognized by the exchange will also not participate in the position reduction.

5. According to the announcement of Guangzhou Futures Exchange, from January 10, 2024 to December 31, 2024, Guangzhou Futures Exchange will implement the following fee reduction measures. 1. The following fees for all futures products are exempted: delivery fee; standard warehouse receipt transfer fee; standard warehouse receipt transfer payment fee; standard warehouse receipt as margin fee. The above measures are implemented by direct exemption. 2. The hedging transaction fees of all futures and options products are reduced by 50%, and the reduction amount will be calculated and issued to members every month to offset the subsequent transaction fees.

6. From January 7 to 8, the National Business Work Conference was held in Beijing. The conference emphasized that we should promote the continuous expansion of consumption and improve the market and circulation system. We should stimulate consumption potential, cultivate and expand new consumption, stabilize and expand traditional consumption, and promote the upgrading of service consumption quality. We should accelerate the construction of a strong trading nation. We should upgrade goods trade, expand intermediate goods trade and cross-border e-commerce exports, innovate service trade, and develop digital trade. We should create the "Invest in China" brand and promote the steady growth and quality improvement of foreign investment.

7. A Maersk spokesperson said the company has not yet participated in any negotiations with the Houthi rebels on a safe passage through the Red Sea. Earlier, it was reported that the Houthi armed forces had held talks with some shipping companies on the issue of the Red Sea passage and reached some agreements. Maersk's stock price once plummeted by 8%.

8. Zou Lan, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, said that the People's Bank of China will strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, and work from the three aspects of total volume, structure and price to create a good monetary and financial environment for high-quality economic development. In terms of total volume, the People's Bank of China will comprehensively use basic monetary release tools such as open market operations, medium-term lending facilities, re-loans and re-discounts, and reserves to provide strong support for the reasonable growth of social financing scale and monetary credit.

9. Swiss logistics service company Kuehne + Nagel said that the world's large container shipping companies are still largely avoiding the Red Sea route. Because the Houthi armed forces are attacking merchant ships in the region in response to Israel's actions in Gaza. Franziska Bietke, a spokesperson for the company, said in an email that the latest information the company has obtained is that six of the eight largest shipping companies have completely avoided the Red Sea, and the other two only send ships through according to specific circumstances.

Global futures market changes

1. International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.77% at $2,034.1 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.02% at $23.31 per ounce.

2. International oil prices fell across the board, with the February contract of U.S. crude oil falling 3.92% to $70.92 per barrel, and the March contract of Brent crude oil falling 3.11% to $76.31 per barrel.

3. All base metals in London closed lower, with LME copper futures down 0.31% to $8,437/ton, LME zinc futures down 2.28% to $2,504/ton, LME nickel futures down 0.84% ​​to $16,235/ton, LME aluminum futures down 1.61% to $2,237/ton, LME tin futures down 0.76% to $24,435/ton and LME lead futures down 0.58% to $2,064/ton.

4. The main agricultural futures contracts of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed lower across the board, with soybean futures down 0.84% ​​to 1245.75 cents per bushel; corn futures down 1.36% to 454.5 cents per bushel, and wheat futures down 3.17% to 596.5 cents per bushel.

5. Domestic commodity futures closed generally down at night trading, with energy and chemical products performing weakly, fuel oil fell 4.27%, crude oil fell 3.69%, LPG fell 2.82%, low-sulfur fuel oil fell 2.78%, ethylene glycol fell 2.11%, PTA fell 1.95%, and pulp fell 1.5%. Black series fell across the board, with coking coal falling 1.49%. Agricultural products generally fell, with rapeseed meal falling 1.9%, cotton yarn falling 1.76%, palm oil falling 1.71%, cotton falling 1.57%, soybean oil falling 1.5%, and soybean oil falling 1.33%. Most base metals closed down, with alumina falling 2.09%, Shanghai aluminum falling 0.81%, Shanghai zinc falling 0.75%, Shanghai tin falling 0.67%, stainless steel falling 0.59%, and Shanghai copper falling 0.16%. Shanghai gold fell 0.46%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.05%.

Black hot news

1. According to Mysteel, from January 1 to January 7, the total amount of iron ore arriving at 47 ports in China was 28.6 million tons, a decrease of 499,000 tons from the previous month; the total amount of iron ore arriving at 45 ports in China was 27.712 million tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons from the previous month; the total amount of iron ore arriving at the six northern ports was 14.418 million tons, an increase of 813,000 tons from the previous month.

2. Recently, the Shaanxi Bureau of the State Administration of Mine Safety conducted an on-site inspection of the Shenfu Economic Development Zone Haiwan Coal Mine Co., Ltd. and found that the mine had major accident hazards. In accordance with the "Special Provisions of the State Council on Preventing Coal Mine Production Safety Accidents", the Shaanxi Bureau of the State Administration of Mine Safety ordered the Shenfu Economic Development Zone Haiwan Coal Mine Co., Ltd. to suspend production and rectify.

3. According to preliminary statistics from the Statistics and Information Department of the China Coal Industry Association, in 2023, there will be 17 enterprise groups with raw coal production exceeding 50 million tons. The total raw coal production of the 17 enterprises is about 2.79 billion tons, an increase of about 70 million tons from 2022, an increase of about 2.6%. In 2023, there will be 8 enterprises with raw coal production exceeding 100 million tons, an increase of 1 from the previous year; there will be 9 enterprises with raw coal production between 50 million tons and 100 million tons, and the total raw coal production of the 9 enterprises is about 560 million tons, which is basically the same as last year.

4. According to the export data of the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce, in the first week of January 2024, a total of 4 working days, Brazil's iron ore was 6.6833 million tons, compared with 24.5731 million tons in January last year. The average daily shipment volume was 1.6708 million tons/day, an increase of 49.59% from 1.117 million tons/day in January last year.

Hot news on agricultural products

1. According to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Malaysia's palm oil production is estimated to decrease by 12.36% from December 1 to 31, 2023, including a decrease of 11.92% in the Malay Peninsula, 13.07% in East Malaysia, 14.15% in Sabah, and 9.68% in Sarawak.

2. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, as of January 3, 2024, the national live pig output price was 14.56 yuan/kg, down 1.02% from December 27; the corn price in major wholesale markets was 2.58 yuan/kg, down 0.77% from December 27; the pig-to-grain price ratio was 5.64, down 0.35% from December 27.

3. Virit Viseshsinth, director of the Thai Sugar and Sugarcane Board Office, said that Thailand is expected to produce 8-8.5 million tons of sugar in the 2023/24 production year, a decrease of about 25% from the previous year. Virit Viseshsinth said that the decline in production was due to the impact of El Nino climate. According to the agency's data, in 2023, Thailand exported 7.64 million tons of sugar and its total production was 11.05 million tons.

4. According to data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Pressers Association (SPPOMA), from January 1 to 5, 2024, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 20.56%, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.38%, and output decreased by 22.56%.

5. China Reserve Network issued a notice on matters related to the auction transaction of the rotation of central reserve frozen pork on January 10, 2024. The auction transaction this time is 30,000 tons.

6. According to the Ministry of Commerce's foreign trade, the actual soybean import shipment in December 2023 was 1.3929 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 55.37%; the forecast import shipment in December was 4.3935 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 34.81%; the forecast import shipment this month was 255,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 96.17%.

7. According to Wind data, as of January 8, 2024, the national port inventory of imported soybeans was 7.4053 million tons, and on January 2 it was 7.3057 million tons, an increase of 99,600 tons from the previous month.

8. According to consulting firm AgRural, as of January 4, Brazil's 2023/2024 soybean harvest was only 0.6% complete, and Brazil's summer corn harvest was 3.3% complete.

9. According to the data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of the week of January 4, 2024, the export inspection volume of U.S. soybeans was 674,749 tons, which was lower than market expectations. The revised figure for the previous week was 969,454 tons, and the initial value was 961,694 tons. The United States shipped 351,044 tons of soybeans to China (mainland). The United States shipped 471,169 tons of soybeans to mainland China in the previous week. The export inspection volume of soybeans from the United States to China accounted for 52.03% of the total export inspection volume that week, compared with 48.99% last week.

10. According to export data from the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce, in the first week of January 2024, a total of 627,500 tons of soybeans were shipped in a total of 4 working days, compared with 839,600 tons in January last year. The average daily shipping volume was 156,900 tons/day, an increase of 311.09% from 38,200 tons/day in January last year.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. According to Longzhong Information, as of January 8, the total sample inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 76,700 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from the previous period, a month-on-month increase of 24.31%. The commodity inventory was 54,500 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from the previous period, a month-on-month increase of 30.70%. The total social inventory of styrene in Jiangsu to ships, pipelines and trucks was 43,500 tons, and 28,500 tons were picked up in this period. The total MEG port inventory in the main port area of ​​East China was 987,000 tons, a decrease of 37,100 tons from the previous statistical period.

2. According to the announcement of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the revised version of the "Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Flat Glass Futures Business Rules" has been reviewed and approved at the 9th meeting of the 8th Council of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has been reported to the China Securities Regulatory Commission. It is now issued and will be implemented from the 2502 glass futures contract. Article 23 is amended to: "Benchmark delivery product: 5mm ordinary colorless transparent flat glass that complies with the "National Standard Flat Glass of the People's Republic of China" (GB11614-2022) (hereinafter referred to as the "National Standard for Glass"), with a specification of 3.66m×2.44m." Article 24 is amended to: "Alternative delivery products and premiums and discounts: 6mm ordinary colorless transparent flat glass that complies with the provisions of the "National Standard for Glass", with a specification of 3.66m×2.44m, no premiums and discounts."

3. The international oil price continued to fall on Monday. The market generally believed that the previous reduction in Saudi Arabia's official oil pricing for Asia was greater than expected, which strengthened the signs of weakness in the spot crude oil market. Data also showed that before Saudi Arabia made the decision, oil market fund managers significantly increased their short positions in Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the second highest increase since 2017.

Metal Hot News

1. Russian miner Udokan Copper said that the fire on December 30 damaged some facilities of the company's Far East plant, but copper concentrate production was not affected, adding that the damage was still being assessed. Udokan's copper reserves reached 26.7 million tons. Udokan Copper did not specify whether the fire accident would delay the start-up of the company's cathode copper production line. If delayed, it may exacerbate the global copper supply tension.

2. According to export data from the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce, in the first week of January 2024, a total of 54,400 tons of copper ore and copper concentrate were shipped in a total of 4 working days, compared with 71,400 tons in January last year. A total of 35,800 tons of aluminum ore and aluminum concentrate were shipped, compared with 162,900 tons in January last year.

3. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said in a speech prepared for the South Carolina Bankers Association's 2024 Community Bankers Conference on Monday that the Fed's monetary policy appears "restrictive enough" to reduce inflation to the Fed's 2% target. Bowman also said she is willing to support an eventual rate cut as inflation falls.

Bragging about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!

1. With supply expected to increase, will urea's subsequent trend be bearish?

Founder Futures Analysis pointed out that after the bidding was closed on January 4, the bidding situation gradually became clear. The lowest CFR on the East Coast was US$329.4/ton, which was equivalent to the ex-factory price in Shandong at RMB 2070-2100/ton, which was about RMB 200/ton lower than the current ex-factory price in Shandong. With exports almost hopeless, the domestic market can only hope for agricultural reserves and off-season reserves in the short term. If corporate inventories continue to decline, the futures market may have limited room for adjustment under the relatively pessimistic expectations. If corporate inventories rise again, and the gas head device recovers seasonally, the equilibrium price may be further tested downward. In terms of operation, the short-term sentiment component is high, and a cautious bearish mindset is adopted. Pay attention to the support performance of 2030 below, such as a breakthrough or a test of the 1900 mark.

2. As demand continues to be under pressure, will coking coal continue to operate at a weak level?

Baocheng Futures analysis pointed out that due to the recovery of downstream raw material inventories and the decline in molten iron production, the spot prices of coking coal and coke were under downward pressure. In addition, the macro-driven factors were temporarily suspended, and the coking coal futures contract maintained a weak and volatile operation. It is recommended to maintain a range approach, mainly short-term highs, and pay attention to the dynamics of stable growth policies.

Overview of recent important futures data and events

1. At 16:00 on January 9, China announced the annual rate of M2 money supply, social financing scale, and new RMB loans in December. According to institutional forecasts, with the support of government bonds, a number of positive policies continued to be implemented in the fourth quarter, and the momentum of economic recovery continued to strengthen. It is expected that the growth rate of social financing will rebound in December.

2. At 1:00 on January 10, EIA released its monthly short-term energy outlook report. In the previous report, EIA lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 by 60,000 barrels per day to 1.34 million barrels per day. It also expects crude oil prices to fall in 2024. Pay attention to the report's views on the outlook for global oil supply and demand.

3. At 12:30 on January 10, MPOB will release Malaysia's December palm oil supply and demand monthly report. According to a Bloomberg survey, Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to be 2.37 million tons in December 2023, a decrease of 2.1% from November; Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to be 1.61 million tons in December 2023, a decrease of 10% from November. Pay attention to whether the actual data meets expectations.

4. At 20:00 on January 10, Conab released Brazil's soybean production forecast, soybean yield forecast, and corn production forecast for January. The weather cloud map shows that in the next week, there will be varying degrees of rainfall in the drought-stricken areas of central and northern Brazil, and there will be large-scale heavy rain in early January. Pay attention to CONAB's adjustment of Brazil's soybean production forecast.

5. January 10th is to be determined. ITS/Amspec/SGS will announce Malaysia's palm oil export volume from January 1 to 10. According to data from December 1 to 31, Malaysia's recent palm oil exports have continued to decrease on a month-on-month basis, and demand continues to remain weak. We will pay attention to whether there are signs of improvement in subsequent exports.

The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data