Judging from the current holdings of #Bitcoin for more than 155 days, there are nearly 14 million #BTC in a long-term holding state. This data will set new records almost every day starting from mid-October, which means that new records will start from January 2022. There is no need for more chips to change hands. Instead, they are waiting for changes in the general cycle.

It can be seen from this that this part of the bargaining chip completely ignores the Federal Reserve or monetary policy, and is not even interested in the earnings season. It is more waiting for the mid-term election, the halving and the superposition of macro shifts. Therefore, it is almost certain that if you want to Unless there is a black swan event, another large-scale price drop is almost impossible.

The black swan cannot rule out the risk of market devaluation due to the U.S. economic recession, probably in the third quarter of 2023.