Many of you may not remember that last July I introduced to you that the U.S. House Financial Services Committee approved the Republican-led cryptocurrency regulatory framework bill. This framework bill is actually the current FIT21, and its main function is to distinguish the regulatory responsibilities of cryptocurrencies under the SEC and CFTC.

FIT21 was proposed in Congress and passed by the U.S. House of Representatives. Its purpose is to clarify the roles of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in digital asset regulation. The bill also aims to provide stronger consumer protection, including disclosure of digital assets, fund segregation, capital allocation, and higher custody standards. However, the bill still needs to be passed by the U.S. Senate before it can take effect.

First of all, the full name of FIT21 is
H.R.4763 - Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (HR4763 - 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act)

The main content is
If the blockchain or digital ledger on which the digital asset relies is fully functional and decentralized, then the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) must regulate the digital asset as a commodity. The bill classifies a blockchain as a decentralized blockchain if, among other requirements, no person has unilateral control over the blockchain or its use and no issuer or affiliate controls 20% or more of the digital assets or voting power in the digital assets. In addition, the bill gives the CFTC exclusive regulatory authority over the cash or spot market for digital commodities.

If the relevant blockchain is functional but not decentralized, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must regulate digital assets as securities. However, the bill provides certain exceptions to the SEC's regulation of digital assets, which limit annual sales, restrict access to non-accredited investors, and meet disclosure and compliance requirements. The bill also imposes requirements for primary and secondary market transactions.

The CFTC and SEC must jointly issue rules to define terms and exempt dual-registered exchanges from duplication of rules.

More about FIT21
Address: congress.gov

The approval time for the $ETH spot ETF is between 2:00 and 4:00 a.m. Beijing time on May 24. The probability of the SEC announcing it is the highest. You can pay attention to the SEC's official website to obtain the first-hand information.

The relationship between 19b-4 and S-1/S-3 in the $ETH ETH spot ETF application can be understood from the following aspects:

1. Overview of 19b-4 rules
The 19b-4 rule is a rule established by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to regulate the trading of securities listed on stock exchanges. The rule requires that stock exchanges must formulate and implement reasonable rules to prevent manipulation, fraud, and unfair trading practices.

2. Overview of S-1/S-3 forms
Forms S-1 and S-3 are registration statement forms that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires listed companies to submit when they conduct an initial public offering (IPO) or a secondary offering. Form S-1 applies to initial public offerings, while Form S-3 applies to secondary offerings.

3. The relationship between 19b-4 rules and ETH spot ETF applications
ETH spot ETF applicants must comply with the 19b-4 rule, which means that they must formulate and implement reasonable rules to prevent manipulation, fraud, and unfair trading practices. These rules may include:

Suitability requirements for market makers
Restrictions on trading volume
Restrictions on price fluctuations
Restrictions on order cancellations and modifications

4. The relationship between S-1/S-3 forms and ETH spot ETF applications
ETH spot ETF applicants must disclose detailed information about the ETF in S-1 or S-3 forms, including its investment objectives, strategies, and risks. This information is critical for investors to assess whether the ETF is suitable for them.

5. Summary
Both the 19b-4 rule and the S-1/S-3 form are rules established by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to protect investors and ensure market fairness. ETH spot ETF applicants must comply with these rules to ensure that their ETFs comply with relevant regulations.

Currently, S-1 is the approval required by most applicants, while S-3 is the approval required by Grayscale. So even if 19b-4 is passed, it does not mean that the spot ETF has been approved. It still needs the approval of S-1/S-3 to be truly listed.

Millennium Management is the world's largest hedge fund with assets under management of $64 billion. It disclosed at the last minute that it holds $2 billion in#BTCspot ETF. I roughly calculated that institutional holdings should exceed 50%, and may even exceed 60% or more.

😂I guessed the price of $BB last time, but I dare not guess the fully circulated $NOT this time. It is already traded on AEVO, and the current price is $0.00846. This price is indeed a bit low. If this is true, it is probably the lowest yield of#BinanceLaunchPool in history. Let's take a look at the data first.

In this mining, the average output of one#BNBis 145 NOT, and FDUSD worth $585.6 can mine 102 NOT. Based on this standard, we can derive the following formula. According to the current price of 0.00846, BNB's yield is only 0.2%, and FDUSD's yield is as low as 0.15%.

But to be honest, after all, it is listed on Binance, which is different from AEVO, and it is fully circulated. To be honest, the price of around 0.008 made me sell it, which is not very meaningful, mainly because it is too little. The income of 1,000 BNB is only 1,200 USD. At least it should be 0.5%, otherwise it will be a pig's trotter meal if sold. Just take a gamble. Of course, I don't recommend that everyone do this.

As for the opening price, it may be between 0.007 and 0.009. After it stabilizes, it is not ruled out that it may rise. After all, it is fully liquid. I hope there will be opportunities for pattern, and try not to slap your face.

I just read BlackRock's financial report. It's a rough reading because it doesn't involve the field of#Bitcoinspot ETF separately. The data of all ETFs are integrated together, so it's difficult to reflect the ETF income. However, BlackRock's financial report stated that in the first quarter, the total inflow of funds for its more than 400 ETFs was $67 billion.

Then I calculated that as of March 28, 2024 (after the holiday), BlackRock's net increase in holdings was 251,783 #BTC. According to the average price of this period, about $55,000, it is $13.848 billion. In general, it is very likely to exceed $14 billion, which means that the capital volume of $IBIT ETF accounts for 21% of BlackRock's overall net inflow.

Although there is no clear data, I believe that IBIT is definitely one of the top four popular products, which also reflects the global investors' love for "compliant" BTC.

I have been very busy these days, but I still found some time to talk to my friends about CPI. So when the CPI data came out, the trend of the market should be within everyone's expectations. What is the most important thing after the CPI data came out this time? I have already talked about it in the afternoon. For most friends, the broad CPI is inflation, and for inflation, whether it is within expectations is very important. Today's broad CPI not only exceeded last month, but also exceeded the expected value. What is the psychological expectation now?

That is, the Federal Reserve will not rush to cut interest rates. This matter has actually been said many times. For the market, it is good to be able to cut interest rates three times in 2024. Before, it was expected to cut interest rates twice.

But is this a terrible negative? Not necessarily. The core CPI, which is the core inflation (core PCE) that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about, is higher than expected, but it does not exceed the value of last month. In other words, although it is not very good, it is not very bad. This kind of data actually has limited impact on the market.

If there is no rate cut in May, there should be no need to gamble now, unless the unemployment rate in April jumps directly to more than 4.5%, which is still too unlikely. Otherwise, the probability of the Fed moving interest rates in May is not high. Some friends are worried about whether there will be a rate hike, which is a bit too much to worry about. At least the current inflation is not enough for the Fed to break the interest rate.

The previous ones are all nonsense, and I have said it dozens of times. Looking back at the data of#BTCand #ETH, although the price has fallen now, this is a reaction to market sentiment, which is actually a short-term effect. My personal opinion is still that it is not necessarily correct to be bullish when it rises and bearish when it falls.

I guess many new friends don’t understand the 12 words “It may not be correct to say that if it rises, it will rise, but if it falls, it will fall”. In the morning, I saw someone leave a message after the price rose to 68,500 in the early morning, saying that it was not “not expected to rise if it rises”, how could it rise so much.

Let me explain a little bit. The so-called “if it rises, it will rise, but if it falls, it will fall” is used by many friends. For example, if it falls below 66,000 US dollars, it will be expected to fall to 62,000 US dollars. If it rises above 67,000 US dollars, it will be expected to rise to 70,000 US dollars. This is to say that if it rises, it will rise, but if it falls, it will fall.

This set of ideas is actually applicable at some time, but it still depends on the reasons for the price push. For example, in the previous declines, many friends saw the beginning of 5 or even 4. Many of them are of this kind of thinking. From my personal point of view, this may not be correct.

The main reason is that the current game is not a game of emotions, nor a game of information, but a game between selling#BTCand purchasing power. In layman's terms, if you sell 100 BTC, but only buy 10, the price will fall. If you sell 1 million BTC, but buy 2 million, the price will rise.

So the key point is not the simple buying and selling volume. It is not about the simple price trend, but the current state of the game. It has been reiterated many times that although the recent purchasing power is indeed not good enough, which can be clearly seen by ETFs, the stock of the exchange has the opportunity to refresh the lowest stock value in the past six years almost every day, which means that most investors do not want to sell their BTC at the current price.

This is the most fundamental reason. Not many people sell. Although the purchasing power is average, not only the price drop is limited, but the rise is also limited. Because many people do not want to sell at $66,000, it does not mean that they do not want to sell at $69,000, but it is difficult for purchasing power to rise steadily and continuously without the promotion of new emotions or events.

But this does not mean that the price of#BTCwill not rise or fall. Instead, it may fluctuate upward gradually with a relatively small amplitude, or it may fluctuate downward, or even go sideways. It may seem like nonsense, but this is how the game is.

There are about two options for interest rate cuts now, both of which have been verified by history. The first is defensive interest rate cuts, that is, when the US economy has not yet had problems, the interest rate is cut for fear of an economic recession. There are successful experiences and failed experiences of this type of interest rate cut.

The so-called success and failure are relative to inflation. After all, the main reason for raising interest rates is to fight inflation. This time, Powell absorbed the experience of Paul Walker before. If there is no clear possibility that inflation can return to 2%, there is a high probability that there will be no aggressive defensive interest rate cuts.

Therefore, it is very likely that interest rates will be cut 2 to 3 times in 2024. There is only one possibility for not cutting interest rates at all, that is, inflation continues to rise, or even the increase is not small, after all, high interest rates still have an impact on the US economy.

The second interest rate cut is because the economy has been destroyed, and it has to reduce losses by repairing interest rates. This is a more conventional approach, and for the Federal Reserve, economic recession is the best solution to fight inflation, but now the US employment and GDP are good, and it is still a bit early to talk about economic recession, so it is not discussed.

In general, the probability of the United States not cutting interest rates in 2024 is very low. There should be a rate cut, it just depends on the way the rate cut is done. The former has the probability of a soft landing or no landing, and there is no need to say more about the latter.

I had good luck the day before yesterday, and I predicted that it would be on the LaunchPool soon, so I bought some $BNB BNB at the bottom. In just two days, I not only made money on #BNB, but also mined more. The old rule is, don’t predict the price first, the price needs to get more It is easy to judge based on the data. Judging from the current known situation, the selling pressure of #aevo AEVO in this period is less than that of $PORTAL in the previous period. The last period was released on the first day and accounted for 16.82% of the total circulation. The data is even It is higher than the 14% of $PIXEL in the previous period.

Moreover, PORTAL is unlocked by the team, which is also the main reason for the pressure. As a result, the price of PORTAL is still nearly 1 US dollar lower than the price at the time of opening. This makes all friends who have a pattern feel distressed, including me, which is sad.

This time AEVO is smart and does not write the release ratio, but we can still see some clues from the data provided by @BinanceResearch. The share of LaunchPool mining this time is 4.5% of the total circulation, and the total amount released that day is 11%, which is indeed lower than PORTAL and PIXEL, but there is a sentence here that caught my attention. The original English text is - -

“Private Sale Investors (Seed and Series A) and Team’s $RBN tokens will fully vest by May 2024, RBN Holders may convert RBN to $AEVO at a 1:1 rate, with a 2 month lock-up period”

What this means is that $RBN held by private investors and team members will be fully unlocked (vested) in May 2024. This means that they will obtain the ownership of the token and can freely sell or transfer it, and the exchange of RBN and AEVO will be unlocked after two months.

So this tells us that it may not be too structured. A large number of Tokens will be available in two months. By then, it may be really unclear, so it doesn’t matter to friends who are willing to gamble, but for those who are willing to gamble, it doesn’t matter. For cautious friends, it may be a better opportunity to leave the market within two months.

And from the perspective of selling pressure, it may not be very high at the opening, and it may be easier to control the price. The specifics will be discussed when we make price expectations.

Judging from the BTC spot ETF data in the last 24 hours, there is a trend of rest. Although the price has been more stable in the last 24 hours, there is indeed no trend of large buying as in the past, especially for BlackRock, the leader. Generally speaking, the net buying volume in the last 24 hours has been lower than the average of the last two weeks. However, compared with the data two weeks ago, this buying volume is within the normal range.

In addition to BlackRock, Fidelity, which is also in the first tier, performed slightly better. The increase in holdings in the past 24 hours also exceeded the previous day, which also increased the total#BTCholdings of BlackRock and Fidelity. The amount exceeds 300,000. According to the current market value, it has reached 20.1 billion US dollars. This is only the sum of the two ETFs.

I don’t know if Sister Mu, who is in the second tier, has bought it again. In the past 24 hours, her holdings have returned to four digits. Currently, the total number of BTC under management has exceeded 36,000. Bitwise, which ranks fourth, has also increased its holdings to a certain extent. Judging from the general trend, only Invesco's BTCO has obvious outflows except GBTC, and the other eight funds are all experiencing positive inflows.

As of now, the total institutional holdings of the ten spot ETFs are 794,192 BTC. Excluding grayscale GBTC positions, there are 384,349 BTC. This data is nearly twice the holdings of MicroStrategy that we are familiar with. The current total market value is US$25.75 billion.

Although the number of#BTCcurrently in circulation is increasing as the price rises, as ETF institutions continue to purchase, it is very likely that the circulation in the market will begin to decrease in the next period of time. Of course, even if the data is now declining, we can still see that institutional investors in the United States are still buying BTC.

The data for spot ETFs on Friday was indeed bad. This is due to two aspects. First, it was the selling of GBTC, which directly rose to nearly 10,000. This number was more than the total of the other four days last week. The main reason should be Genesis. Compensation selling, we also talked about this issue on Saturday. If it is really Genesis, then after this part of the selling pressure ends,#BTCwith the same amount of funds will be bought immediately.

On the other hand, BlackRock and Fidelity's spot ETF purchases have decreased. Fidelity's data has been bad since Thursday, while BlackRock's data on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are all good, only on Monday and Not on Friday, but the net purchase of 3,236 ETFs was nearly double the holdings of other eight ETFs.

So it can only be said that the overall situation last Friday was not good, even for the first tier, let alone the second and third tiers. Therefore, the ETF data last week was indeed dominated by net outflows, with an outflow of 4,787 BTC.

However, last week’s data still made a big leap compared to two weeks ago. Two weeks ago, there was a net outflow of 10,647 #BTC, an inflow of 21,616, and a net inflow of 10,969 BTC. Last week’s data showed an outflow of 16,843 BTC and a net inflow of 53,795 BTCs have flowed in, and the net inflow is 36,952, which is more than 3.5 times that of two weeks ago. Of course, the specific situation will depend on the reaction of several ETFs after the US stock market opens today.

It’s a little early to say that ETFs are mainly selling, so let’s wait and see for two days.