In November 2023, Bitcoin had a positive start, its price increased from $34,200 to $38,000. An important indicator was the STH RP (Short-Term Holder Realized Price) - the average price of acquiring Bitcoin by investors who hold it for less than 155 days.

Analysis of Bitcoin's recovery from cyclical lows showed characteristic patterns in the STH RP. The breakout of STH RP and Long-Term Holder RP in December 2022 led to a significant rally, lifting Bitcoin from $17,000 to $24,000. The trend continued until August 2023, followed by a decline when Bitcoin fell below the STH RP to $28,300 and corrected to $24,900. However, in October 2023, Bitcoin once again broke beyond the STH RP, rising from $27,900 to $35,000.

Analysis of monthly changes in STH RP and Long-Term Holders Realized Price (LTH RP) shows that when the monthly change in STH RP reaches $2000, it signals local peaks, especially after recovery from bear markets. The negative monthly change in LTH RP indicates that long-term investors are realizing their investments in Bitcoin.

Now, when the STH RP monthly change reaches $2000 and the LTH RP monthly change turns negative, a local peak at $38,000 - $39,000 is possible. However, it should be noted that the overall trend points to a further decline to the STH RP level, which could push the price down to $30,000 - $31,000 as the STH RP hovers around $30,000.