There is nothing much to say about bulls and bears. You can get rich no matter what you buy or how you buy. In fact, as long as you have been in the car since last year, it is basically fine. For BTC, I still think that as long as there is no recurrence of the CFTC and SEC events or a more serious black swan, the possibility of a stable drop below $26,000 is not great. ETH depends on the exchange rate, but as long as BTC rises, shorting ETH may not be correct.
I personally didn’t have the vision to invest in Ordinals, and Ordi is still losing money now, so there is no layout for the BTC ecosystem. How should I put it? There are rises and falls every day. I don’t know about others. Anyway, I don’t have the ability to buy all the rising ones, and I don’t have the ability to discover in advance that those ALTs may rise. It is true that the research in this area is too poor. It is necessary to increase some research on ALT in the future.
Since mid-September, the cryptocurrency market has recovered significantly and market confidence has been boosted
Regardless of whether the market is bullish or bearish, as long as liquidity improves and volatility increases, it is already very good news.
Starting from mid-September, the one-wave pull method gradually became a thing of the past. More and more people were exposed for short selling, and the market value of the currencies traded by funds also grew visibly. From the initial 20 million plate to a plate of several hundred million, after a month of brewing potential, the big cake was launched in mid-October as expected. All kinds of signs are very exciting, because everyone in the currency circle is not afraid of rising or falling, but is afraid that the market will not be attractive, afraid of losing personnel, afraid of declining attention, and afraid of no more volatility.
A vibrant market is a good market. From this perspective, we redefine the bull market. Bull market = sufficient liquidity + volatility, not just the number of big pie breaking new highs. A bull market should be a hundred flowers blooming, with a rich and increasing number of practitioners in various tracks and industries, rather than each company laying off employees and cutting off its arms to survive.
The exchange rate of Ethereum has improved recently, but ETH has not broken the previous high of 2141. Instead, it has accurately touched the 1910 resistance level mentioned earlier several times and then stopped. The "no entry" at these two positions is obviously intentional, showing the enemy weakness and showing inability when capable.
There are many factors that contribute to ETH's lack of growth, such as
1. Lack of fixed anchor point after POS
2. SOL and other public chains diversion
3. The narrative lacks appeal and has no attractive hot spots
4. Insufficient primacy
Bitcoin's rise is basically in place. Ethereum has clearly started to strengthen and recover in the past few days. The basic logic is still the old routine we mentioned before: "Bitcoin first absorbs blood and rises, then the auntie makes up for the rise, the mainstream makes up for the rise, the copycat makes up for the rise, the shipment is completed, and then it continues to fall." It is still valid. I guess it is probably in the second stage. But the market is still strong, and the psychological barrier of 2000 will be broken sooner or later.
There is still a chance for copycats
The rise is based on logic and fundamentals, rather than the random rise in the last round. This is actually healthier and more sustainable.
When evaluating the recent performance of the total altcoin market capitalization, it is clear that there is a high level of confidence in digital assets.
The local upside recorded a + 21.3% increase in the sector’s valuation, with only six trading days showing larger percentage changes. This highlights the waterfall effect of investor capital, as Bitcoin’s dominance tends to rise, tending to spark a rise in altcoin valuations compared to fiat currencies.
However, it is important to remember that Bitcoin’s dominance is continuing to rise. From a relative perspective, BTC now controls over 53% of the digital asset market valuation, while Ethereum, large altcoins, and stablecoins have all experienced relative declines in their dominance in 2023. Bitcoin’s dominance has risen from its cyclical low of 38% set at the end of 2022.
Finally, we can compare the year-over-year growth of Bitcoin and the total altcoin market cap (excluding stablecoins). Bitcoin market cap grew 110% in 2023, while altcoin market cap grew 37%, an impressive but relatively small increase.
If you think that this is a bull market, even if it is just the beginning of a bull market, or you think that spot ETFs will definitely pass, then it is not too late to enter the market even now, just control your position. But if you don’t think so, then what’s the point of waiting? Be modest and learn more.
Today's sharing ends here. Thank you very much for taking the time to read this article in your busy schedule. I hope the article is helpful to you. You can follow me and leave me comments to communicate with me.
