In my previous article (link), I questioned the notion that halving is the catalyst for Bull Runs. I then posed two key questions that I committed to explore from a new angle:
Is halving truly the trigger for Bull Markets, or is the correlation between halving and the start of Bull Markets just a coincidence?
Are we on the threshold of a new bullish market, or are we simply witnessing artificial hikes orchestrated by institutions to catch us off guard?
Let's examine these questions from a technical perspective.
First, what is a Bull Run from a technical point of view?
A Bull Run, or bullish market, is technically characterized by an upward trend on a Monthly chart. On the monthly chart of Bitcoin shown below, we have isolated the Bull Runs of 2016-2018 and 2020-2022 to illustrate the behavior of Japanese candlesticks during these periods, as well as during Bear Markets. The surges are marked in green and corrections in red, thus offering a clear view of the trend. You will observe that during the Bull Market, the trend is significantly bullish, and during the Bear Market, it is clearly bearish. This analysis offers us a perspective independent of halving, based on the fundamentals of a trend to anticipate a Bull Run.
The Halving and the Bull Run
Halving, an event that occurs every 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years), cuts the Bitcoin reward given to miners in half. With the growing adoption of cryptocurrencies, one might easily think that halving favors the increase in prices due to the law of supply and demand. While this is not untrue, the crucial question is: Is halving the triggering element of Bull Runs? The answer is no.
Let's take a look at the Bitcoin chart since the end of the last Bear Market.
Currently, Bitcoin has recovered more than 50% of its drop incurred during the last Bear Market. By analyzing the different surges and corrections, it can be seen that since its low at $15,000, the bullish movements are significantly longer than the bearish ones; in other words, the price forms higher peaks and troughs; which is the technical definition of an upward trend. This phenomenon is also observable with Ethereum. Therefore, if we define a Bull Market as a monthly upward trend, Bitcoin has theoretically started a new bullish cycle and, consequently, a new Bull Market. This trend is also reflected in altcoins, even though the next halving is still four months away. This reinforces the idea that halving is not the direct cause of Bull Markets.
In conclusion, a Bull Run can start before or after the halving of Bitcoin; it depends on several factors.
The Halving in the Context of the Bull Run
Although halving reduces miners' rewards, thus influencing supply and demand, this reduction does not constitute a Bull Run in itself. Halving is rather one of the fundamental elements that support the long-term bullish trend of Bitcoin, alongside its adoption and other factors influencing demand. It contributes to a long-term trend, where Bull Runs are considered surges and Bear Markets are corrections.
The cryptocurrency market, like all financial markets operated by humans, follows the theory of market cycles. This is the real reason why we observe bullish and bearish markets.
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