A spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund or ETF is the most anticipated crypto investment product in the United States and across the crypto space in 2024.

During 2023, giants of finance, investments and capital management, such as BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton or Invesco, have filed applications with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which until now has been reluctant to the idea of approve a spot BTC ETF.

ETF Bitcoin 2024

After a large number of requests and with heavyweights in finance and investments pointing towards the presence of a #ETF of #Bitcoin $BTC in cash, for the first time, in the United States United, all eyes have been directed towards the #SEC during 2023.

Delay by delay with each decision, the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF has taken longer than the context seemed to indicate. Especially when BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager with more than $9 trillion, filed its application with the SEC in June.

Will this situation change next year? Will the SEC finally approve a Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024? Everything seems to indicate yes. But with Gary Gensler's SEC, when it comes to the cryptocurrency industry, there are few certainties.

Requests waiting

A few days before the end of 2023, the SEC has in its possession a list of 13 applications for a spot Bitcoin ETF on the table to be evaluated for 2024. Let's look at the list:

  • Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Since 2021, asset manager Grayscale has decided to convert its Bitcoin Trust product into a Bitcoin ETF, and has even battled and defeated the SEC in court to do so. Grayscale has asked the SEC to approve all Bitcoin ETFs at the same time, without choosing “winners or losers.”

  • ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) de las firmas 21Shares y Ark Invest

  • iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBTC) led by asset giant BlackRock

  • Bitwise Bitcoin (BITB) from Bitwise Company

  • VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) proposed by investment firm, VanEck

  • Wisdomtree Bitcoin Trust (BTCW) from New York asset manager Wisdomtree

  • Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) presented by Invesco in partnership with Galaxy Digital

  • Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust liderado por Fidelity

  • Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund (BRRR) solicited by Valkyrie

  • Global X Bitcoin Trust proposed by ETF provider Global X

  • Hashdex Bitcoin ETF (DEFI) from investment firm Hashdex

  • Franklin Bitcoin ETF powered by Franklin Templeton

  • Pando Asset Spot Bitcoin Trust presented by Swiss asset manager, Pando Asset AG

SEC delays

The US securities regulator has been rejecting and blocking proposals for a spot Bitcoin ETF for years. In 2023, it delayed all decisions for the different presentations in the name of "consumer protection."

Most of the proposals have received modifications and amendments throughout the year, without finding validation from the regulator. This is the reason why there is a large number of applications under review.

The SEC and Gensler have come under heavy criticism for the way they have handled the entire approval process for a Bitcoin spot ETF.

Especially since the regulator has approved BTC futures ETFs, which are considered higher risk.

Ark Invest's Cathie Wood has been blunt in pointing out Gensler as the only obstacle to the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. The criticism has gone beyond the cryptocurrency or finance industry, as a group of congressmen submitted a letter to Gensler and the SEC, urging them not to discriminate against any Bitcoin spot ETFs and approve them all equally.

2024, key

With the numerous delays in responding positively to the requests, the SEC will have to make a decision in 2024. In fact, the decision could occur at the beginning of the year, since a bulk of the proposals have the new response deadline of the first 15 days from January.

Different analysts, investors and industry participants believe that the alignment of these dates could mean that the SEC will finally approve a Bitcoin spot ETF in January 2024.

In recent days, the agency has held meetings with representatives of different applicants, where key technical details were discussed, Reuters reported.

These movements are interpreted as a positive signal for future approval. Bryan Armour, director of North American passive strategies research at Morningstar, was "optimistic" about the SEC approving "batches" of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, explaining that the agency appears to be valuing more seriousness the last group of applications.

For its part, VanEck, one of the firms awaiting approval, dared to predict that the approval of a BTC spot exchange-traded fund will finally arrive in 2024.

Perspectives and impact

Inside and outside the cryptocurrency industry seem to agree on the importance of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States. But what would this type of ETF represent for Bitcoin? In particular, the significance of the investment product is seen at the institutional level.

Wood has claimed that the arrival of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund would represent a “final seal of approval” for the entry of more institutional investors into the cryptocurrency space.

If we talk about market impact, numbers seem to be a key factor in sizing the impact of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded product. Different analyzes have estimated the flow of capital that could enter Bitcoin ETFs after the spot ETF is approved:

  • VanEck estimates more than $40 billion in the first two years of trading.

  • Bloomberg analysts believe they represent a market opportunity of up to $100 billion.

  • For Galaxy Digital, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are estimated at $14 billion in the first year, $27 billion in the second, and $39 billion in the third.

  • Glassnode sees over $70 billion flowing into Bitcoin from ETFs

Source: Observatorioblockchain.com