Now the ETF inflows are pulling the overall market up. There has been no such regularity in the previous monitoring data. The inflows of ETFs in the past few days are not particularly large. It is unexpectedly so. If there is no inflow, it will fall. Does this mean that liquidity is insufficient and large institutions are needed to support the market? If so, I hope they will continue to support the market and keep inflows to push the market up to 80,000. Because we can only make money if the spot market rises, I certainly hope it will rise.

I have to think about how to deal with it if the institutional ETFs are no longer supporting the market. In our judgment, Japan's interest rate hike is a high probability event. The previous economic data pointed to no interest rate cuts. Today, the number of unemployment benefits of 24.2 is lower than expected, which is good news. Retail sales of 0.4 is also good news. As economic data are gradually released, if they all point to the improvement of the US economy, the probability of interest rate cuts will become smaller and smaller. Many people think that interest rate cuts are good news. What will happen if they don't? The United States has shrunk its balance sheet by 1.9 trillion and is still shrinking it. Market liquidity is still drying up. This is also a means to maintain a strong dollar, so the dollar is constantly appreciating. I still maintain a long-term view. The US economy continues to improve. The 1-2 year bull market in the US stock market will drive the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle. This only refers to the BTC bull market!

After experiencing two bull and bear markets, this time is very strange. Bitcoin fluctuates widely and passes the transition period from a small bull to a big bull. The altcoin passes the transition period from a small bull to a big bull through a sharp drop. If Bitcoin doubles, the altcoin will rise several times, and it's over. The more I think about it, the more interesting it is. I still want to rise a little more, but I can't find a reason to convince myself. Bitcoin 15wu, how much capital is needed to undertake it. The market value of the altcoin is hundreds of millions or tens of billions. How much can it rise? The last bull market started with millions. If it rises to hundreds of millions, it will be a hundred times!

Even if inflation is taken into account, it is reasonable to rise several times. So adjust the strategy again, slowly reduce ETH positions to Bitcoin, and reduce the positions of the altcoin. It is better to make money from the wave of Bitcoin than to make 1-5 times the altcoin. I have looked at most of the coins today. For coins that cannot even break the previous high, let alone the new high, is there any possibility of a sharp rise in the future? It is possible that the probability is very small. I am willing to put large funds in places with low risks and use small funds to bet on high-risk coins.

When the overall situation is paradoxical and the direction is unclear, choose to defend and seek stability!