Hot topics of Master Chat:
Although the non-farm and inflation data of the past two weeks have not yet reached the point where people are worried about inflation, they have already dampened expectations of "recession" and "immediate interest rate cuts."
The data from CME today showed that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has risen to 84%, and the possibility of no rate cut has decreased. So the market reaction last night was flat, because the basic expectations did not change.
In the medium term, expectations of recession and interest rate cuts have cooled. The market now seems to be lost, unable to find a direction, waiting to re-anchor. The most critical thing in the future is the direction after the interest rate cut, recession or rebound? The first interest rate cut is important, but the subsequent rhythm is the key to whether the economy will pick up.
At present, the recession concerns have been temporarily eliminated, and inflation has slightly exceeded expectations but has not shaken the probability of a rate cut in November. The risk is not big, and we can take a breath for the time being.
But don’t forget, it’s earnings season again. Coupled with the uncertainty of the US election, the stock market may have to wait for the earnings report to give a signal to see whether it will perform strongly or weaken.
As for the cryptocurrency world, the most important thing is liquidity! No matter how weak the fundamentals are, as long as liquidity is strong, there will always be some hope.
Keeping an eye on the US dollar liquidity indicators, especially the changes in the size of bank reserves, and even the fluctuations in the issuance of USDC, may also be an indicator to observe. After all, a fish cannot jump high in a pond without water!
Master looks at the trend:
As soon as the CPI was released last night, the US began to say that prices were rising slowly, so there was no rush to cut interest rates. As a result, Bitcoin dropped immediately upon hearing this, and said goodbye briefly, falling below 60K.
Now, every time the market falls, the trading volume is so fierce, as if everyone is rushing to jump out of the car. But when it rebounds, the trading volume is very quiet, as if everyone is watching the show from the sidelines.
So if the buying is not strong, we may see a small rebound, and then continue to slide down according to the downward trend.
In general, the current rebound idea is like the temporary blood replenishment in the game. Once it is used up in the short term, you have to run away quickly.
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 60600
Second resistance level: 61300
The first resistance level is being tested now. If you want to see a bigger rise, you have to break through it and then stabilize your position. It's like playing basketball. You have to break through your opponent and stabilize the ball, otherwise the ball will go out of bounds and you will have wasted your trip.
If the first resistance is successfully broken, we still have to observe whether it can break through the downward trend line in one go. If it successfully holds 60.6K and consolidates back and forth, the hope of a rebound will greatly increase.
After all, we are still in a bearish trend. If the trading volume is not enough when we reach the second resistance line, we should change our thinking quickly. Don't wait foolishly for the price to go up. It is safer to make some adjustments.
Support level reference:
First support level: 60000
Second support level: 59300
If it falls below 60K again, it will trigger a larger decline, like a falling version of the "N-shaped" trend. At this time, 60K is like your safety rope. If you release it, you will be hit by the tide!
Yesterday the price hit 59K, which is like the ice cream in front of you melting, and the resistance is getting smaller and smaller. Now the hope is to hold the price of 60.4K, so that there can be a rebound. Otherwise, this rebound is unlikely to happen.
Today's trading suggestions:
The current price is a bit awkward, like standing on the threshold, neither going in nor going out. So I suggest you don't rush into the market, wait until it falls back to the support line, and see if it can rebound, or consider shorting when it reaches the resistance level.
Anyway, the reasons for the market to rise are as rare as missing persons, so you can't ignore the risk of falling when trading. You still have to be cautious these days, and don't let the market teach you a lesson that not every attack is a hero.
Yesterday, the price of the currency fell to around 58,900, and the first target of long orders, 60,100, was realized, earning 1,100 points of profit. Currently, the price of the currency has risen to around 60,700. Friends who still hold long orders can first stop profit and exit steadily.
10.11 Master's short-term pre-buried order:
Long entry reference: 59000-59300 range, long in batches, defense 500 points, target 60000-60600
Reference for short entry: short in batches between 61300 and 61600, defense 500 points, target 60600-60000
