Bitcoin is once again blocked at $64,000

After once approaching $64,000, Bitcoin seemed to encounter a short-term resistance. This morning (8th), it fell back to above $62,000. It is currently rising slightly and is quoted at $62,400. Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties are still unfavorable to short-term trends. The market expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates will decrease, and this week will also usher in the beginning of CPI and earnings season.

Why is Bitcoin falling?

Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty

In the past eight weeks, Bitcoin has been unable to break through the $66,000 mark. The main reasons include uncertainty in global economic growth, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and uncertainty about the outcome of the US presidential election.

In addition, stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data for September reduced the likelihood of a recession, but also reduced the chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

According to CME FedWatch data, the market currently predicts that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by another 2 basis points at the next FOMC interest rate meeting has dropped sharply from 40% two weeks ago to 0%.

A high interest rate environment will make investors more risk-averse, which is unfavorable for Bitcoin prices. In addition, China's latest economic stimulus measures have reduced the demand for alternative safe-haven assets. The Hong Kong stock index even hit a 32-month high, while the S&P index fell 0.5% from its all-time high.

Bitcoin futures long-short balance, ETF net outflow

The annualized premium rate of Bitcoin futures remains at around 8%, indicating a relatively balanced long and short position. In addition, since October 1, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of $335 million.

This week we will see the US CPI data

In addition to the above factors, the United States will usher in earnings reports and important economic data this week, which may also be the reason why investors tend to be conservative. On October 10 and 11, the United States will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) respectively. Both data are important indicators for measuring inflation and have a direct impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy.

If CPI and PPI decline, indicating that inflation is slowing down, the Federal Reserve may consider further interest rate cuts, which will help stimulate economic growth.

According to market estimates, the CPI annual growth rate in September may slow down to 2.3%, and the monthly growth rate is 0.1%. However, as the non-farm payrolls data in September exceeded expectations, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts this year have been significantly reduced.

If inflation remains sticky and the October non-farm payrolls are relatively strong, the Fed may pause its rate cut plans.

US stock earnings season kicks off this week

In addition to inflation data, this week will also see the start of the US stock earnings season. Financial giants such as JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and BlackRock will be the first to release their earnings reports, which will not only have a direct impact on the financial sector, but also be seen as a barometer of the health of the US economy.

Since Bitcoin remains sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical changes, this week's economic data and corporate earnings reports may have a significant impact on prices, and market trends should be closely monitored.