During the National Day holiday, performances of major global asset classes diverged. Stimulated by favorable policies, Hong Kong stocks and Chinese stocks concept-listed in the US surged. US economic data pushed up US Treasury yields and the US dollar index. Gold did not change much overall, while silver performed well. International oil prices surged amid geopolitical tensions.
Here are five big things to expect during the holiday season:
US non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, market reduces bets on rate cuts
Expectations for a Fed rate cut have cooled significantly. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls released on October 4 were much better than expected, with 254,000 new jobs created, exceeding all economists' forecasts, and the unemployment rate fell back to 4.1%. Traders are more confident of a soft landing for the economy, and are betting that the Fed will only cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in the next two meetings. Fed Chairman Powell also pointed out in his speech on October 1 that there will be two more 25 basis point rate cuts this year. But some officials have warned of the risk of rising inflation.
Hong Kong stocks surge as foreign investors invest heavily in Chinese assets
Driven by favorable policies and increased foreign capital, Hong Kong stocks continued to surge during the National Day holiday. Last week's average daily trading volume increased by 37.9% month-on-month. The Hang Seng Index rose 10.2% for the week, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 17.38%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index has risen for four consecutive weeks. Investors' enthusiasm remains unabated, and data such as the number of brokerage accounts opened and margin trading in Hong Kong have shown high growth in the past week.
Foreign investors continue to be optimistic. Goldman Sachs upgraded the Chinese stock market rating to "overweight" and expected it to rise by 15-20%. Morgan Stanley said that if more spending measures are introduced in the coming weeks, the Chinese stock market will rise by another 10% to 15%. HSBC Research believes that A-shares are still undervalued by 15%. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosed that JPMorgan Chase spent more than HK$4.1 billion in one day to buy Chinese assets.
Investors are rushing to enter the market. Some positions at China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation and securities firms have ended their holidays early to cope with the surge in account openings, but new accounts still have to wait until the 8th to be completed and trading can only begin on the 9th. For the first time, futures investors can complete online account opening procedures during the National Day holiday.
Middle East situation: One year after the Israeli-Pakistani war, the conflict spreads to multiple points
Iran fired about 200 missiles at Israel in retaliation. Israel said most of its missiles were intercepted and vowed to respond, with some leaders reportedly calling for attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities and oil fields. The two sides are on the verge of a war.
The military conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is also escalating. Both northern and southern Beirut are bombed by Israeli troops. Israeli ground forces entered Lebanon and engaged in fierce fighting with Hezbollah. Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets into northern Israel and launched a destructive attack on the Israeli port city of Haifa for the first time.
In addition, Israel also launched air strikes on Gaza, Yemen's Houthi armed forces, Syria, etc. Netanyahu said that Israel is facing a seven-front war, including Hamas, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Iran. The situation caused a sharp rise in international oil prices during the National Day.
Shanghai Stock Exchange: Starting from October 8, the time for accepting designated transaction declaration instructions will be extended
On October 6, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a notice that starting from October 8, the time for accepting designated trading instructions will be adjusted to 9:15 to 11:30 for each transaction. After the adjustment, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has increased the time for accepting designated trading instructions by 5 minutes compared with the previous time. The purpose is to facilitate the designated trading of newly opened accounts and improve efficiency, rather than canceling the call auction as market rumors analyzed.
Many cities introduced real estate optimization policies, and commercial housing sales increased
Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen adjusted their housing purchase restrictions and other policies before the National Day. More than 10 provinces issued provincial-level policy documents, and more than 50 cities issued their own property market optimization policies. More than 130 cities in more than 20 provinces carried out promotional activities, with nearly 2,000 projects from more than 1,000 real estate companies participating. Since the National Day holiday, the number of visits to most of the projects participating in the promotion has increased by more than 50% year-on-year.
The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data