The US economy should still be OK around February or March next year, but we will have to wait and see whether it will be a soft landing or a recession. At the same time, we should pay special attention to the unemployment rate and inflation. Although there is no recession for the time being, the expectation of recession may be hyped.

There are two more interest rate meetings this year, in November and December, and the total interest rate cut will be about 50% (based on the current situation. But whether it is 25% each or 50% in November and 0% in December or 0% in November and 50% in December, well, we don’t know now)

QT has not ended yet, when it will end, it may be in the first half of next year, but whether there will be QE in the middle... To be honest, I can’t say. Well, anyway, the US dollar liquidity is not so optimistic during this period. Remember, it is not so optimistic.

Local wars are more of a short-term impact. Japan’s macroeconomic situation, that is, when to raise interest rates, needs attention. There is an old saying: the more severe the fall before the US election, the higher the rise after the election... Anyway, there is still a full month before the election.

As mentioned before, the sentiment after the election is positive, and there are stimuli (such as FASB), which will definitely boost the BTC market, but there are also prerequisites, that is, the US economy is not in recession and Japan is cautious in raising interest rates. If there is such a market, I said before that the liquidity of the US dollar is not optimistic, so don't be too FOMO. Don't just shout 100,000 when it rises, okay? I know that some friends will say that I am looking for subjective evidence for my conclusion that there will be a good market from the end of this year to the beginning of next year. Uh, I want to say that the objective thing is that no matter when, we must respect the market and remain rational. The market is nothing more than ups and downs.