Brothers, have you checked your stock accounts these days?
In three days, the Shanghai Composite Index fell directly from 2,700 to 3,000 points. The circle of friends of investors was like the New Year. Before many people could come to their senses, the capital market had changed drastically.
What exactly happened behind this?
On September 24, the central bank launched two measures that will go down in history. The first is a 500 billion swap facility loan. Simply put, financial institutions such as securities, funds, and insurance can take their CSI 300 stocks or bonds to the central bank for a total of 500 billion in mortgage loans. However, the money can only be used to buy stocks and increase A-share positions. If the effect is good, there will be a second 500 billion and a third 500 billion. There is also a special loan with an initial scale of 300 billion. Simply put, listed companies can also borrow from banks, and the borrowed money can only be used to repurchase their own stocks, and the loan interest rate is only 2%.
If the effect is good, we can do it again. These two pieces add up to 800 billion yuan of incremental funds, accounting for 3% of the circulation of A shares. This wave of central bank has prepared sufficient bullets to support A, which can be called a historical milestone for A shares.
Think about it, why did the A-shares not rise before? In essence, there was no incremental funds. When the market fell, investors redeemed their shares, and public funds also passively sold stocks. Everyone’s confidence was insufficient, and the entire market fell and no one bought. This time, it is equivalent to the central bank actively providing bullets to financial institutions and listed companies, and it is 800 billion yuan at a time, 500 billion yuan for institutions, and 300 billion yuan for listed companies. If it is not enough, you can add more. The key is that for financial institutions, this money is equivalent to lying down and making money. A simple calculation, the current dividend rate of the CSI 300 Index is about 3.21%. If you borrow 100 million to buy, you can get 3.21 million yuan in annual dividends, and the special loan interest rate is 2.25%, which is 2.25 million yuan in interest per year. Then, after the institution pays off the interest, it can still make 960,000 yuan. This is not counting the money from the appreciation of assets after the stock price rises. Therefore, as long as there is arbitrage space, there will be institutions to borrow, and this money stipulates that it can only buy stocks, so in the end this arbitrage will form a money-making effect, which is the core of this round of market rise.
You have to wait for the right time to make a move, and when the time comes, you should make your move. Why is it that right after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the country immediately launches a series of major policies? Aren’t they just waiting for capital outflows after the US dollar cuts interest rates so that we can grab these funds?
What is the key? The current environment does need the stock market to improve. In the past, we relied on real estate to achieve wave after wave of asset appreciation and created a large number of middle-class people. Now everyone is looking for a new way to grow their wealth, so many people put their money in the stock market. According to the data of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, there are 220 million domestic stock market investors and more than 700 million fund investors. The operation of the market affects hundreds of millions of families and tens of billions of industrial and commercial enterprises. In other words, if your net worth goes up, your desire to consume will naturally increase, and buying cars and houses will naturally become more active. #BTC #ETH #加密市场反弹 #美联储宣布降息50个基点
