Bitcoin continued to rise last night following the U.S. stock market, but it is still weak and not dominant, so there is a high probability that Bitcoin will continue to adjust. However, it has already tested the bottom twice and received effective support, so the subsequent market outlook is still expected.
The short-term upper resistance is around 59,000. Once it breaks through and stabilizes, the next target will directly challenge the ma120 position around 63,000.
CZ is about to be released from prison and is ready to make a big splash?
I have analyzed with you before that although CZ cannot directly manage Binance after being released from prison, he is still its largest shareholder, holds real power, and still controls key decisions.
It is worth noting that CZ attached great importance to education before going to prison, and is expected to promote the development of this field even more after being released from prison.
bnb has been very strong recently. The market speculates that it is related to CZ's upcoming return and the launch of a new IEO project. In addition, Binance added cat's API last night. It seems that the listing rumors are true. Cat has taken off. Aave has also been very strong recently. It recently said that it will cooperate with cb to launch cbbtc. Aave has also cooperated with Trump's new project and entered the rwa track. Judging from the current trend, aave has entered the next stage of the market. I remember that aave entered the bull market earlier than the main force in the last round. Is this round going to repeat history again?
All important economic data before the Fed’s first rate cut have been released, and the conclusion is that inflation continues to cool, the economy may be in recession, and a rate cut is necessary.
Next Thursday, September 19 at 2:00 a.m., the Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate meeting and decide whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. In addition, there may be two more interest rate cuts this year.
Regarding the judgment of this round of bottom, there are the following signal references:
The current ups and downs are all emotional effects under poor liquidity. If the U.S. economy does not enter a recession in July, August, and September, and no black swan appears, there is a high probability that the market will continue to fluctuate widely in these three months until September, entering the pre-election stage.
Next is the election cycle, which is generally favorable for risky assets and is relatively bullish.
If an economic recession occurs, then the current price level is definitely not the bottom, and a larger gold pit will appear.
Economic recession can be observed through the unemployment rate. When the United States experiences an economic crisis or recession, the unemployment rate will be above 5.2% or 5.4%. Powell also said in some meetings that when the unemployment rate exceeds 4%, the Federal Reserve will consider whether to cut interest rates in advance.
Because from the perspective of the Federal Reserve, their expectation for the unemployment rate in 2024 is 4.2-4.4. If it exceeds 4.4, it means that the economy has begun to get out of control and will gradually shift towards recession. When the unemployment rate gets higher and higher, the probability of triggering an economic recession becomes greater and greater. Although interest rate cuts may bring some promotion to the market, from a longer period of time, high unemployment rates may eventually evolve into an economic recession.
There is no absolute bottom, find the bottom range that suits you and make fixed investments. If you are a long-term holder and are willing to buy at the bottom, you can split your positions at the set price, and every time it drops by a certain amount, add a position that you can afford. The reason for buying ETH at the bottom is the spot ETF, betting that the increase will exceed BTC.
How to grasp the trend based on cycles?
Cycles are divided into large cycles and small cycles.
The big cycle is the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, such as raising or lowering interest rates, which represents whether the currency is loose or tight.
The small cycle is to judge whether it is in the early, middle or end of the interest rate hike? Is it entering a pause in interest rate hikes, or entering the end of the pause in interest rate hikes? Looking back at historical data, we can find that:
1. The initial period of the rate hike was a devastating blow to the entire risk market, whether it was cryptocurrencies or US stocks, they were basically falling. However, at the end of the rate hike, the entire risk market rose.
2. Entering a cycle of suspending interest rate hikes is generally beneficial to the risk market.
So from an operational point of view, sell when the interest rate starts to rise, and start buying when the interest rate reaches the bottom and everyone has begun to predict that the interest rate hike will be suspended. When it comes to the interest rate cut cycle, if there is no economic recession in the early stage of the interest rate cut, you can still hold your position. If there is an economic recession, then selling is a better choice. In such a cycle, you may not be able to escape the top accurately, but you can definitely get 70% of the entire rising cycle, and the risk is very low.
There is another cycle, that is, the more it falls before the mid-term election, the more you should buy, because it is likely to rise more after the mid-term election. According to historical data, this has happened 14 times out of the past 15 times, and there is at least a 40%-50% profit margin.
