What was expected in the first week of September, what happened?
First, you can review my article at this link to see our expectations and possibilities as we enter September.
Bitcoin
The average volatility for September is 25%, with Deribit BTC DVOL around 58%. The average weekly implied volatility for September is around 12%. We saw this expected volatility happened in the first week. The market experienced a 10% drop. You can see the details in the table below.
This week, with 12% implied volatility, our price range is 48.2k-61.5k. The weekly opening was positive in the Asian market, and if we don’t see a sharp sell-off in the US market, we can consider that the price is now looking for a turnaround and may rise.
Ethereum
The average volatility for September is 35%, with Deribit ETH DVOL around 68%. The average weekly implied volatility for September is around 15%. We saw this expected volatility materialize in the first week. The market experienced a 10% drop.
This week, with 15% implied volatility, our price range is $1950–$2650. The ETHBTC chart is also potentially forming a bottom and has been holding above an important support for a long time. If it can’t hold at this level, we might see a sharp sell-off. It could find good support from the 0.038 area and bounce back above the support.
After seeing the first week’s movements in September, let’s now look at the general data.
The Funding Rate for BTC and ETH is at zero. In option contracts, there are 1,060,070 Call and 454,700 Put Open Interest contracts. The largest portion of these appears to be dated for the end of September and the end of the year. If you want to examine BTC and ETH specifically, you can look at the two images below.
Current $BTC and $ETH September 27 contracts and prices. They’ve generally become very cheap. You might want to take a look.
We have come to the end of this weekly article. I hope the days when we will start to rise and make profits are waiting for us. Good day to all.
