The current trading value of #bitcoin hovers at about $28,000, displaying a lack of discernible directional inclination.
The MVRV metrics for several time frames, namely 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day, exhibit values that are in close proximity to zero, indicating a neutral starting point for Bitcoin (BTC).
The levels of sell-side and buy-side liquidity may be observed at around $30,300 and $24,900, respectively, with a deviation of 10% and 9% from the reference point.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) exhibits a state of uncertainty as it hovers around the approximate value of $28,000. An examination of on-chain metrics elucidates the prevalence of lateral price movement and suggests an imminent occurrence of a significant price fluctuation in Bitcoin.
The price movement of Bitcoin results in the elimination of both gains and losses.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has had a 12% increase over the course of the past month and is presently exhibiting a horizontal trading pattern at the $28,000 mark. However, according to Santiment's Market Value to Realised Value (MVRV) index, it can be observed that the current state of holders' positions does not indicate either a profit or a loss.
The purpose of this index is to assess the mean financial gain or loss experienced by investors who have acquired BTC during a designated timeframe. The 7-day MVRV metric provides insights into the performance of Bitcoin holders who have made purchases within the preceding week. Presently, the 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day MVRV indicators are in close proximity to zero, indicating that Bitcoin (BTC) holders are currently experiencing a period of equilibrium when neither profit nor loss is incurred.
In the event of a substantial influx of investors experiencing financial gains, it is plausible for the market to witness the emergence of a peak as these individuals proceed to secure their winnings. In contrast, in the event of a substantial presence of unrealized losses within the market, individuals who maintain their investments over an extended period of time may seize the opportunity to purchase assets at lower prices, so instigating a subsequent upward movement in market activity. Given that neither scenario is accurate, the directional bias for Bitcoin remains uncertain.
The evaluation of Bitcoin's directional bias should not overlook the macroeconomic perspective, particularly in light of the October 6th employment report. The aforementioned occurrence demonstrated a notable increase of 336,000 employment opportunities for the month of September, surpassing the projected figure of 170,000 by a significant margin. Therefore, this significant macroeconomic occurrence took the market by surprise and led to a surge in the US Dollar, resulting in a temporary decline in risk-on markets.
The significance of the forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 10 lies in the potential for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to strengthen the notion of a further interest rate increase in November.
At the commencement of the current week, the CME FedWatch Tool indicated a 30.9% likelihood of a 25 basis point increase in interest rates. Following the release of the most current jobs data, the aforementioned figure has experienced a decline, now standing at 21.2%. The prevailing consensus among observers is that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current policy rate range of 5.25% to 5.50% without making any adjustments.
During the Jackson Hole conference, the Federal Reserve subtly indicated the possibility of implementing a further interest rate increase in 2023, contingent upon the data warranting such action. Given the current employment data, it is plausible that Powell may substantiate this notion, so introducing more challenges for more speculative investments.
The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures have significance, however, the forthcoming publication of inflation figures and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on October 11 and October 27 respectively, will assume a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve's determination regarding interest rates on November 1.
The technical indicators of Bitcoin exhibit cautionary tendencies, however they imply the possibility of a positive upward movement.
The current price of Bitcoin is currently situated below $28,352, representing the central point of the 21% decline that transpired between July 13 to September 11. Upon further examination of the technical indicators, it is evident that both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Awesome Oscillator (AO) are currently not displaying any negative signals.
In this particular scenario, there is a possibility that the price of Bitcoin may see an upward trend towards a more northerly direction.
The objective for bullish traders in this particular scenario would involve focusing on the accumulation of buy-side liquidity that is positioned above the swing highs established over the period spanning from July 20 to August 8. Overall, this movement would represent an approximate increase of 9%.
The prospective approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF has the capacity to significantly elevate the price of Bitcoin, maybe surpassing $30,000 and reaching levels as high as $35,000 or even $40,000. The aforementioned situation, albeit improbable, cannot be completely discounted as its occurrence is not impossible.
Conversely, in the event that the Federal Reserve affirms an increase in interest rates during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the immediate consequence of this announcement may result in a decline in the price of Bitcoin, as it seeks to gather the available purchasing power situated at about $24,900.
