Hello everyone, I am Mu Mu.
Do you know? Entering the stock market is a practice. The ultimate goal of all kinds of temptations is to make you have less and less pie. Many people still don't understand this truth. The following is all the dry goods written by Mu Mu, digest them slowly by yourself.
Every product that will return to zero will eventually go further and further away from the trend of the big cake, ushering in a long road of decline until it is finally abandoned by everyone. FIL was made by aunts, and whether it can be glorious again in the next cycle also depends on aunts.
I am not saying that FIL will definitely return to zero, but I believe that it will show a downward trend for a long time in the future, and the highs will eventually be lower than the previous ones.
Let me first state my conclusion:
1:2.41 is not the bottom of FIL.
2: FIL is currently undergoing the last major downward movement of this round.
3:238 is the epic peak of FIL, and it will not be released for at least 5 years.
4: The expected downward position of this round is 1.18-1.74
5: The top price of the next round of market will be between 27 or 39-51.
Since the highest point of 238 at the end of March 21, it has been five stages of downward movement.
2.419 is the bottom of the third downward trend, not to mention the bottom of the entire downward trend. The current trend is the fifth downward trend.
Since the third section moves downward very sharply, the fifth section's downward trend will become slower and its duration will be shorter than that of the third section.
After breaking through the light-colored box in the chart, the price formed a weekly head, which means that the biggest resistance in the next round of market is at this position.
From the perspective of trading volume, the volume in the first head area is smaller than that before and after the third section bottoms out, so when the third section bottom is broken, the resistance in this area is the greatest. The starting point of a new round of market is to release the trapped retail investors in this area, which is the light purple box in the figure. It is speculated that a head and shoulders bottom pattern will be formed to release the trapped investors. Of course, after this position is released, the space above is still limited.
At present, FIL's fee rate has formed a downward channel since it went online. The good thing is that the recent lows of the exchange rate are obviously in a state of price slowdown, indicating that the exchange rate is being repaired. Of course, repair does not mean a big rise, but it is just because the downward trend is too sharp, so the downward trend is blocked. Reflecting on the FIL price itself, it will slow down, or overall, the final stage is mainly a slow decline.
Based on the above judgment, it is temporarily believed that FIL is moving in a downward 5-stage, which is the first downward stage in the next 5-8 year cycle.
That is to say, starting from March 2021, the large-scale downward trend will continue for 8-10 years.
What is coming in 24 years is the second rebound (A-B-C) of this level downward and then the third downward movement.
If FIL has a technical breakthrough, or the third downward segment does not fall below the lowest point of this round, it can be considered that this large cycle has failed.
The judgment is valid. Looking only at the trend of this round, there is about 20 times of space from the predicted bottom to the predicted top. There are many logics supporting the bull market. It is difficult to maintain the high point of FIL relying on CX. Therefore, whether the aunts can continue to store water in the pool in this cycle is also a very important point.
