Core points:
- The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and BTC price fluctuations: Recent observations have pointed out that during the period when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) dropped significantly. In particular, from 2019 to 2022, as the epidemic broke out, the Federal Reserve implemented an interest rate cut policy.
- Halving events and bull market cycles: BTC’s two important halving events occurred in 2016 and 2020 respectively, and subsequently led the bull market in 2017 and 2021 respectively.
- Market cycle analysis:
- Bear market stage: 2018-2020 and 2022-2024 are expected to be bear market cycles.
- Bull market and the superposition of multiple factors: The bull market in 2021 is particularly significant. Behind it is the combined effect of multiple factors such as halving, interest rate cuts and the end of the epidemic.
- Future Outlook: It is expected that there will be another bull market from the end of 2024 to 2025, when the halving and interest rate cuts will coincide, which may once again drive the market upward.
Key findings:
- The importance of time windows: BTC market performance is deeply affected by macroeconomic policies (such as interest rate cuts), technical events (such as halving) and global events (such as the epidemic).
- Market cycle rules: The industry generally follows the cyclical rule of "two years of bearishness, one year of shock, and one year of bullishness". Investors need to respond flexibly and avoid mechanically applying historical experience.
suggestion:
- Investors should pay close attention to market dynamics and make more accurate investment decisions based on time, space and background factors.
- Recognize the complexity and unpredictability of market cycles and avoid blindly following trends or being overly optimistic/pessimistic.
- Seize God-given opportunities while managing risks to cope with market uncertainty.
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