Bitcoin is Pumping – What’s Our Upside Target ?

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👇1-11) Bitcoin has surged by 4% since yesterday, aligning with our tactical bullish outlook. The cryptocurrency made a decisive move upward, breaking out of the symmetrical triangle pattern, which suggests that there could be further upside potential. The Bitcoin funding rate has shifted back into a premium, supported by a $1 billion increase in open interest. Given these dynamics, a straightforward strategy would be to go long on BTC while shorting ETH, as BTC's dominance continues to rise and its share of open interest consistently diverges in its favor.

👇2-11) The Fed minutes were as dovish as anticipated, with a strong focus on the employment aspect of its dual mandate. The inflation target seems within reach based on the current economic data projections. A "vast majority" of FOMC members supported a rate cut in September, with several members even considering a July cut as a plausible option. This makes a rate cut in September almost a certainty.

👇3-11) Powell's upcoming Friday speech is expected to reinforce this dovish outlook, likely boosting risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin as monetary policy provides a favorable backdrop. The Fed's focus is shifting towards employment in its decision-making, with inflation data becoming less central, especially as CPI trends towards 2.5% over the coming months. Multiple rate cuts will likely be necessary to sustain the current economic expansion.

👇4-11) The revised employment data could confirm that risk assets are currently overvalued, as the comparison between the ISM Mfg Index and the S&P 500 suggested. While the employment data has begun to hint at a more dovish outlook, signs of a weakening economy will likely emerge first in the labor market. This deterioration would then ripple to consumer spending, eventually impacting corporate margins and profitability.

👇5-11) Bitcoin could rally higher (see our other posts)

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