Is 16700 the bottom? It is definitely the bottom range, but it is not the bottom with a high probability. The reason is simple: the real bottom is that almost no one calls for bottom-fishing. After the bottom, the price of the coin will stay there for a rebound, which can last for 2 weeks to 2 months without anyone buying. Basically, no one talks in the group. Now the group is still very active, and people are calling for bottom-fishing all day long. Can this be the bottom?
Why did it start to fall sharply after rising to 18,300? Simply put, there was no buying. I have almost all BUSD (GAL can be ignored), and I would not chase it even if it rises to 20,000. The psychological price is below 15,000 before the first wave of buying begins; BTC is a risky asset and cannot be used as digital gold. Every time the Fed raises interest rates, the force of funds withdrawing from the market is superimposed. The decline time is not enough; in terms of market sentiment, bullish sentiment is too weak. Result: No buying
The recent rising trading volume is far less than the falling trading volume. The rise without volume has no meaning. And I can tell you that those who have enough cash to buy the dip, whether institutions or individuals, are not panicking at all, and will not say FOMO that they missed the bull market. They are waiting for a large-scale drop in the market and a panic of selling.
About BTC and small-cap coins Small-cap coins refer to other coins except BTC and stablecoins. I just saw that BTC accounts for 53% of the total market value (excluding stablecoins). According to the last bear market, this figure will reach 65-70 to be the real bottom. Consensus and funds need to be recovered to value coins, but considering the development of the industry, I expect 62-65 to be the turning point this time. In other words, other coins/BTC will fall by 10%-15%.
