Recently, analysis firm Glassnode predicted in its latest weekly newsletter that Bitcoin (BTC) ordinal numbers are increasing miners’ profits, but “revenue pressure” is approaching. Competition among Bitcoin miners is exploding, with hash rates hitting all-time highs. This shows that miners are barely making ends meet at current BTC price levels. Serial number inscriptions are helping, turning empty block space into a source of income for miners.

However, the proportion of revenue generated from fees has increased by 1% to 4% compared to the lows during Bitcoin’s bear market, but is still modest by historical standards. Since February, as more miners and newer ASIC rigs are built and come online, the hash rate competing for these rewards has increased by 50%. This hash rate surge is setting the stage for the upcoming showdown. In April 2024, miner rewards per block will drop by 50%, twice the so-called “production cost” of each BTC. Currently around $15,000, this would be over $30,000 - higher than the current spot price.

Glassnode has come up with two models to estimate the price at which miners will fall into the red overall, comparing issuance to mining difficulty above. Using this model, the researchers estimated the acquisition price for the most efficient miners on the network to be approximately $15.1. However, the purple curve shows that level 'doubling' to $30.2k post-halving, which could put much of the mining market into severe revenue pressure.