Will the financial crisis come? Even Buffett has run away! Where will the cryptocurrency world go this time?
The latest interest rate cut plan of the Federal Reserve is released! When will it start to release money to save the market? After reading it, it really exceeded my expectations!
So what major events are happening in the cryptocurrency world right now? Let’s follow Shuqin to find out.
First of all, the U.S. economy has triggered the Sam Rule, causing market panic, and the cryptocurrency world is also unlikely to remain immune.
According to the current data, once the unemployment rate meets the Sam rule, there is a 100% probability of triggering a financial crisis, that is, the average unemployment rate in the United States for three months minus the low point of the previous year. If this value is greater than 0.5%, the United States will enter a recession. You can see that in the past half century, the nine times when the US unemployment rate triggered the Sam rule, financial crises occurred.
Even Mr. Buffett urgently sold half of his largest holdings in Apple, choosing to hold cash rather than stocks. He currently has a record $230 billion in cash in his hands, waiting to buy at the bottom.
So the stock god is reducing his holdings and hoarding cash, which basically shows that he is bearish and is just waiting to buy at the bottom.
However, Shuqin would like to say that Buffett is not actually that great, because he did not buy at the bottom when the U.S. stock market was at its low point last year, and the Nasdaq index later doubled.
Will this financial crisis come? I think there is a chance of this happening, because not only the Sam rule, but also every inversion in the interest rate market is accompanied by a financial crisis.
Therefore, multiple indicators have given warning signals, which definitely require our close attention.
So where will Bitcoin fall? I think a slight correction to 53,000 or the previous low of 50,000 is a good entry price. But you have to know that the price of the currency is not determined by us retail investors, but depends on whether the unemployment rate will ease next time, which are all unknowns. So what we can do is to do a good job of risk control and try to hold spot goods that will not explode to deal with any unexpected situations.
And let me tell you, even if a recession does happen, the Federal Reserve will flood the market with money to save the market.
2020 is a very intuitive example. The U.S. stock market crashed and Bitcoin fell from 10,000 to 4,000. However, the Federal Reserve then began to flood the market with money to save the market. As a result, Bitcoin ushered in a super bull market and rose nearly 20 times.
Therefore, the current interest rate market has already changed. Wall Street currently prices that the Federal Reserve has an 85% probability of cutting interest rates twice at the September interest rate meeting, a total of 50 basis points. Optimistic, it is two times instead of one. Then at the interest rate meeting on November 8, there is also a more than 50% probability of cutting interest rates twice again. It can be said that a large-scale money release is imminent.
So you have to understand that this crisis brings not only risks but also opportunities.
Therefore, Shuqin is still confident about the future bull market, because the worse the environment is, the more money the Fed will release, and the cryptocurrency market will suffer first and then enjoy the sweetness, and rise higher. But the question now is whether you can hold on until then, and whether you can withstand the possible corrections in the meantime.
Therefore, I think a more stable approach is to reduce leverage when the cryptocurrency market rebounds. Especially for small coins, holding spot is definitely a safer choice.
Of course, the above is the worst-case scenario. Maybe the data will be better next time. This is all possible. After all, the unemployment rate data is determined by the Ministry of Labor. For example, just after the data was released last week, the Ministry of Labor suddenly revised the results.
The number of employed people was revised from 114,000 to a normal 179,000. So the next data may also be "revised", especially now is the critical moment of the election, you know.
So now we just huddle together for warmth, adjust our mindset, and get through this most difficult time.
Those who are interested in daily operations can come and have a look. Let’s operate silently, encourage each other, and wait for the subsequent massive release of US dollars. Then a new round of market will restart!
Okay, let’s continue.
The cryptocurrency world is not without positive news now. Wall Street giant Morgan Stanley has begun asking fund managers to promote Bitcoin ETFs to high-net-worth individuals. This is a first on Wall Street.
It can be seen that Bitcoin is gradually becoming popular. The current cryptocurrency circle is no longer the helpless and embarrassing situation it was a few years ago. In this cycle, both Wall Street and politics are actively embracing the encryption field.
The circulation of USDT in the cryptocurrency circle has not been affected by the plunge, but has continued to increase.
This shows that a lot of hot money is taking advantage of the plunge to exchange fiat currency for U.S. dollars to enter the market to buy at the bottom, which forms a huge divergence from the downward trend of the currency price.
Therefore, do not give up hope. Even if the worst recession occurs, the Federal Reserve will surely flood the market with money to save it. So the bull market will come late but it will surely come. As long as you can hold on to your currency, you will eventually rise again.
Add oil! (ง •_•)ง
