分析师舒琴

Qin’s fan army, assemble! Everyone, hurry and vote for me—we’re about to end up at the bottom.

Babeesss, don’t start with me and then abandon me! You all wanted me to show my face, and I did, but then you watched and ran off. If you don’t vote for me now, I’ll be really sad.

Looks like you can vote once a day, so you can vote for me regularly, just like dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin. Visit my profile and vote for me every day. Little Qin thanks you!

Look! Shu Qin has exposed her own live trading positions—how much has she lost?

Here it comes anyway. I couldn’t hold up under the pressure, so I opened my live contract positions for everyone to see. As shown in Figure 1, it can be seen on my Plaza homepage.

My returns are relatively stable: they go up in a straight line with no major drawdowns. The main reason is that my win rate is 90%, and I’m quite satisfied. Because this isn’t data from just a few days—it’s 365 days of data. I see a lot of babies in my comments always saying that I must be profitable forever. The truth is, it really is. So, please stop arguing with me.

A bear market is the best quality inspector. In a bull market, everyone goes long without thinking and makes easy money. The more leverage you use, the more you might profit. But even in a bear market, this Shu Qin can still earn steadily—whether it’s bull or bear, stable performance.

Actually, I didn’t want to open my live trading positions before because it makes me care too much about momentary gains and losses. For example, crude oil—this kind of market is suitable for a long-term short position layout, entering in batches. Before the war stops, the position may be in unrealized loss. Many babies might see that and say, “Wow, Shu Qin made another wrong move.” But in reality, after the ceasefire, it will immediately become very profitable.

So opening my live trading positions doesn’t really bring me any benefits. It affects my mindset. For now, I’m only temporarily showing everyone the specific situation, and later I’ll turn it off. I have several accounts, and I might not open it on every one. But after Binance Plaza introduced the cash-on-spot/晒单 feature, all my funds are now transferred to several Binance accounts to trade, and I’m even helping to operate a fund.

Honestly, I’ve already moved past the stage of getting rich overnight from trading. As you can see in Figure 3, in my last cycle I became financially free. I’m entering the next stage now: protecting wealth, cashing out everything—not trying to make even more. Because even if I earn a lot, I can’t spend it all. But once a black swan happens, the profits made before might all go wrong. I don’t want that.

So now I trade crypto even more as a career. I only allocate 200,000 U for contracts. Every time the contract accumulates some profit, I cash out. I don’t want to roll the profits into a snowball. Look at Figure 1 for the withdrawal amount—it’s the kind where I only withdraw and don’t top up. If one deal earns 1,000 U, I’d already be very happy. That’s basically my monthly meal money.

And then everyone, please keep an eye on my updates in the Plaza. My homepage also has a chat room function—if anything comes up, you can directly ask me~

This is terrifying. With prices falling like this, are we in for a Black Monday on Monday? Let’s talk about where Bitcoin and U.S. stocks are headed next week.

1. Next week is shaping up to be pretty eventful, with several major things coming up. The first is arguably good news: Israel is holding elections on Tuesday, and hardliner Netanyahu is trailing in the polls. If he loses, could that bring a turning point in the Middle East conflict?

2. It’s possible! As you can see in the chart, Netanyahu’s approval rating is currently 31%, while the centrist Gantz is at 52%—a pretty substantial lead. If Gantz takes office, his position is more moderate, which could ease tensions with Iran. That would be good news, and crypto and U.S. stocks could see a rebound.

3. On top of that, the Fed is about to make waves. It will announce its decision at 2 a.m. next Thursday, and Warsh will give a speech at 2:30. We already know the outcome of this meeting: there’s a 100% chance rates won’t be raised, which is a pretty good sign. Warsh’s speech, though, is expected to take a hawkish tone to rein in inflation. We’ll have to see just how hawkish his wording is. A slightly hawkish tone could actually be good news.

4. Of course, all of the above are just supporting acts. The real main event is still the U.S. and Iran! Is Trump just talking tough to pressure Iran into backing down, or is he really going to strike again? That’s the key factor driving the market. If Trump doesn’t give a clear answer, markets could stay weak all the way until after the midterm elections. That’s the biggest uncertainty right now.

5. As retail investors, we can’t control what happens between the U.S. and Iran, but we can manage our own risk and avoid putting ourselves in danger. So it’s fine to buy the dip in small amounts—quite a few coins are down 20%—but don’t go all in, and definitely don’t use high leverage.

6. Let’s just be patient, hold our spot positions, and ride out this period of turmoil. Once we get some positive news on the U.S.-Iran front, or Trump pulls a TACO, a new rally can get underway. Then Shu Qin will give the signal, and we’ll charge in together. Sound good?

It's time for daily voting! Everyone, please vote for Benqin every day, just like you dollar-cost average into Bitcoin. Voting is almost over—if you don't vote now, you'll miss your chance!

Damn, stop dropping already—we’re about to get liquidated. Crypto and U.S. stocks have both crashed. Why are they falling, and will they fall further?

1. First, let’s talk about whether Bitcoin will keep falling. To find the answer, we need to understand the logic and reasons behind this drop. The reason is simple: oil prices are in trouble! So what happens next?

2. Things are better than we thought! As shown in the chart, crude oil is making a classic five-wave Elliott uptrend, with each wave reaching a higher high, but not by too much. Usually, the third wave is the largest, while the fifth wave is somewhat smaller.

3. So oil prices are actually getting close to a short-term top, probably around 105–110, after which they’re likely to drop sharply. By contrast, crypto prices and U.S. stocks should rebound. That’s the technical analysis; barring any other disruptions, this is most likely how things will play out. Also, don’t forget: the higher oil prices go, the more likely Trump is to step in.

4. Now that we’ve covered crude oil, let’s take a look at Bitcoin itself. Bitcoin is now near strong support around 80,000. If you haven’t bought in yet, this is a decent entry price for spot. As for futures, we’ve already traded three rebounds here. Opening a futures position for a fourth time would be less reliable, so spot is preferable; if you do trade futures, keep your position small.

5. A safer futures trade would be to place an order at the next support level, 78,000, where you could use a slightly larger position to trade a rebound. I took profit on my BTC long at 84,000 and my ZEC long at 1,300, as I mentioned earlier. As for buying the dip again, as shown in the chart, Shuqin didn’t rush everyone into buying at 82,000. I’d only consider opening the first position after a pullback to just above 80,000 at the earliest.

6. So our patience and risk management have paid off with a better entry price. Others may be stuck in positions bought near the top, while we’re only just getting ready to enter. Stay patient and follow Shuqin’s trades—there are plenty of opportunities ahead~

Can't seem to fall any further—only go up? Bitcoin is killing it, and selling pressure is holding up! Is it time for the next leg up?

1. Bitcoin has given us a huge surprise. The US stock market has crashed over the past few days, with the Nasdaq down nearly 10% from its peak. But Bitcoin? It's only down 3%. That's a sign of strength. CRCL even surged past $90. So the question is: where does Bitcoin go from here?

2. Here's the answer, straight up: I'm feeling very confident about crypto right now. All kinds of indicators suggest that the bull market has quietly already begun. The move from $60,000 to $87,000 was just the first wave. As a rule, after every big Bitcoin rally, the market builds momentum and consolidates for 1–3 months before rising again—and the next move tends to go even higher!

3. Crypto is really being dragged down by the US stock market right now, because things have become unstable again in the Middle East. But one thing we can be sure of is that the negative impact from the Middle East is temporary. I'm not saying they'll reach a full resolution right away, but at some point we'll surely get a wave of good news, like a Taco. So if crypto barely falls on Middle East-related bad news, won't it surge once positive news hits?

4. Either way, I'm treating this dip as an entry opportunity. I'm not saying we're in a full reversal, but we should at least be able to catch a bounce. So, as shown in the chart, Shu Qin told everyone to buy the dip during yesterday's drop, entering around $80,800. If you got your order filled, congratulations! If not, no worries—there might be another retest of the lows, giving us another chance to get in~

5. Besides that, our dip-buy picks, small-cap coins CRCL and Pengu, are both gradually gaining strength—especially CRCL. I sold my previous position when Bitcoin hit resistance at $84,000. If it has a significant pullback soon, I think it could be worth buying back in gradually. Spot only is fine. Whether you're trading short-term swings or holding long-term, the outcome should be good. Keep those trades coming every day~

Buffett makes a move? Nasdaq plunges 3%! Panic is spreading through the market—and that man has made his move.

First, let’s look at the broader market. It really took a beating. Early this morning, the S&P 500 fell 1.21%, its worst performance since July. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped more than 6%, while the Dow edged up 0.02%.

There were two main triggers: Meta beat revenue expectations but raised its AI capital spending outlook, sending its shares down nearly 7% and dragging tech stocks lower. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East escalated, pushing Brent crude to $113 a barrel.

So Wall Street sprang into action. Investors seeking safety poured into Treasuries, and the 10-year yield fell below 5% for the first time since September 23.

In plain English: doubts about AI returns and rising oil prices stoking inflation have squeezed tech stocks’ room for error to the limit, prompting some institutions to seek shelter.

Now let’s look at Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway: its cash and Treasury holdings have climbed steadily since the 1990s, reaching $365.5 billion in cash and short-term Treasuries at the end of June.

While others borrow money to chase AI, Berkshire has piled up provisions like a mountain, earning 5% interest on U.S. Treasuries. Looking at that stockpile of “ammunition” now, you can’t help feeling that old-fashioned patience is more solid than any narrative.

But! Do you see the blue bar at the far right? It’s started to shrink for the first time in three years! That suggests Berkshire is gradually beginning to trim its cash and Treasuries—its fixed-income holdings—and perhaps turning back toward the stock market?

This is a signal worth watching closely. But don’t get too excited: Buffett has only shifted a small corner of his mountain of gold—not gone all in. We can take it as a point of reference~

Everyone, let's go! Vote for me—I want to go there in person and take them on!

Is the crypto market falling apart? The breakout failed—what happens next? Let’s take a look.

1. I think everyone already knows why Bitcoin is falling: the U.S. is evacuating its citizens from the Middle East and sending several more warships. This could very well mean it’s gearing up to strike Iran again! So the question is: where should we buy the dip?

2. Before talking about buying the dip, we need to understand how serious the current bearish factors are. If the war resumes, then without a doubt, Bitcoin could break below the $80,000 support level and head for the next support at $78,000.

3. But have you noticed that $78,000 isn’t really all that different from the previous $80,000 level? That’s because there’s a very dense support zone around $75,000–$80,000. So if you buy the dip at $80,000 and it breaks lower to $78,000, that’s still manageable.

4. There’s another possibility, too: Trump might just be putting on a show to put psychological pressure on Iran and force it to sign an agreement. So it’s still uncertain whether the fighting will actually happen. But Trump keeps saying he’ll resolve the Iran issue after the midterm elections. If he really does resort to force, Bitcoin and U.S. stocks could potentially keep falling until close to the end of the election cycle.

5. So let’s play it safe for now. We can still try to catch a bounce around the $80,000 support level. If that breaks, we can look to go long again around $78,000. Shuqin’s video yesterday also warned everyone about the risks around the midterm elections. Did you watch it? Once the elections are over and the uncertainty is gone, the market should move more smoothly.

6. Also, yesterday Shuqin suggested taking profits on Bitcoin around $84,000 and ZEC around $1,300. As shown in the chart, we even opened a small short position. Looking back now, that was absolutely the right call. Congrats to everyone who followed along!

Oh no, is the US evacuating civilians from the Middle East? Does this mean fighting is about to break out again?

1. The S&P 500 took another major hit in premarket trading! US stocks had been doing great yesterday after Zelenskyy softened his stance, raising hopes that he might cede 25% of Ukraine’s territory in exchange for ending the war. But then—early this morning, everything suddenly changed...

2. As shown in the image, multiple media outlets have reported that the US is evacuating civilians from the Middle East, while several US warships are gathering in the region. In the past, this has often been a prelude to renewed conflict. Trump has also repeatedly stressed that he would resolve the Iran issue after the midterm elections. Everyone thought he meant a peaceful resolution, but now it looks like he might use force instead?

3. In response, the Nasdaq plunged 1.8% in premarket trading, Bitcoin plunged 2,000 points, and US crude rose 3%. What a turbulent time—one surprise after another.

4. But Trump can be pretty unpredictable. There’s always a chance he’ll suddenly TACO later on. So for now, let’s play it safe and avoid taking overly aggressive positions. Hopefully nothing happens—that would be best. But if fighting really does break out and the market takes a major dive, history tells us those are the best entry opportunities!

And lastly, don’t forget to vote for me on my profile page, as shown in image 2, and help me make it into Binance’s Top 100!

🤣 Holy crap, ZEC is crushing it! Up 10% in a day—is it time to sell at the top? What should you do with Bitcoin now? Let’s take a look.

1. First, let’s talk about ZEC. Things are looking up. After plunging 40% over the past few weeks, it had pretty much finished correcting, so a rebound was only natural. What I didn’t expect was a 10% bounce in a single day! So the question is: can ZEC go even higher?

2. Looking at the charts, ZEC’s first resistance is around 1,300, with strong resistance near 1,450. So the rebound is now approaching that first resistance. If you’re using high leverage, you can take some profits—that’s perfectly reasonable. You could even take some profits on your spot holdings and see if there’s a decent pullback to buy into again.

3. But if ZEC rises to 1,450, I won’t be bullish on it in the short term. I might even consider flipping short for a while. There’s still a lot of resistance around 1,450, with nearly 100 million worth of sell orders sitting there. Yesterday, when ZEC was at 1,130, Shuqin saw a lot of money coming in. And with Bitcoin entering a rebound phase, ZEC could catch up too. That’s why I told everyone to buy the dip in ZEC—and look, the results were immediate. Trust me, I know what I’m talking about!

4. As for Bitcoin, there’s no doubt that around 80,000 is strong support. As shown in the chart, Shuqin posted about buying the dip and going long here on the 14th and 15th. But the market moved so slowly that it took a whole week just to rebound to the 84,000 target. So the question is: should you take profits?

5. This 84,000 resistance has already been tested three times, and it looks like there’s a decent chance of breaking through on the fourth attempt. But if you want to play it safe, you can consider taking profits on your futures positions, especially those with high leverage. Personally, I have 30% in short-term positions and 70% in long-term holdings. I’m still holding my long-term position; the plan hasn’t changed. I’m holding through next year, with a target of 100,000+!

6. Thinking about it, Bitcoin’s recent sideways action has really put everyone through the wringer. Shuqin feels for you too. But the outcome has been good: you bought in aggressively around 80,000, and congratulations—you’ve got your first round of profits. Shuqin will keep at it too, looking for opportunities like ZEC and placing trades aggressively every day~

Up 830%! SpaceX’s latest earnings are astounding—what exactly happened?

Musk gave the market a huge surprise, with the company’s results making a dramatic turnaround: it posted a massive $1.1 billion loss in the same period last year, but now has racked up $4.4 billion in net profit for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA soared to $8.8 billion, up 306% year over year and far exceeding Bloomberg’s $1.7 billion estimate!

The most impressive performer was the Superintelligence (SI) business: quarterly revenue came in at nearly $7.6 billion, up a staggering 830% year over year and accounting for more than half of the company’s total revenue! Powered by the rollout of cloud services, the Cursor acquisition, and Grok Bot, its computing capacity has expanded to 1.7 gigawatts. Its growth momentum is completely eclipsing the traditional business.

The longtime cash cow, Starlink, remains steady, with quarterly revenue of $5.2 billion, up 69% year over year, and more than 13.6 million users worldwide—keeping the company’s core business firmly on track.

Put simply: SpaceX has completely transformed.
It has evolved from the aerospace company most people associate with rockets and satellite internet into a giant powered by two engines: AI computing and space infrastructure.

As a result, SPCX surged nearly 10% in a single day! Xiaoqin gave everyone an early heads-up on Monday that SPCX was about to report earnings. Did you happen to catch it?

SpaceX made its name in aerospace, but AI computing is now its ultimate growth ace. For now, overseas AI is still dominated by OpenAI, Claude, and Gemini. How much market share SpaceX can capture in the future will depend on how well Musk executes—but the momentum is certainly looking good at the moment.

And before you go, don’t forget to follow! Shuqin shares updates on U.S. stocks every day~

Bitcoin is starting to pick up momentum~ If you prefer to play it safe, you can take some profits on high-leverage long positions near the minor resistance around 84,000.
The long-term trend is still bullish, so patience is key. I’m still holding spot, and we can take it slow during the mid-term consolidation.

Is ZEC about to take off? Could it reach 10,000? And what should you do with Bitcoin right now? Let’s take a look.

1. Let’s start with ZEC. Most people have probably heard how explosive this coin can be—it’s up 4x this time around! Is it risky? Very. But does it have potential? There’s a pretty good chance. So here’s the question: is now a good time to buy the dip?

2. Honestly, ZEC’s current pullback is very tempting. It’s already down 40% from its previous high! I’m not saying it’s definitely bottomed, but it’s getting close to a support level for this phase, and the odds of a short-term rebound are rising. If you’re interested in this coin, you could buy some spot on dips, entering in three batches. Try to avoid futures, because it’s extremely volatile.

3. Also, based on ZEC’s past price action, after every major rally it tends to consolidate for 2–4 months before building enough momentum to move higher again. This time, ZEC has only been correcting for a month, so I don’t think the odds of another major rally starting in the short term are very high. For now, I’d only consider playing a rebound.

4. Of course, to be fair, ZEC is still very risky. Allocate no more than 10%—or don’t hold any at all. Our core assets are still SOL and CRCL, along with various other solid large-cap coins. I treat something like ZEC as a speculative shitcoin: aim for outsized gains with a small position, buy in batches, and check back in a few months.

5. We’ve actually made a lot of money on ZEC. As shown in the chart, we shorted it at several peaks. At the time, we saw buying pressure fading and the indicators hitting their highs, so we went in hard on the short with low leverage and a long-term view—and got a great result. This time, we’re trying a different approach: building a position in batches and trading spot. We can’t get liquidated; if we get stuck holding, so be it. We’ll wait a few months for its next breakout.

5. As for the macro picture, the biggest headwind is still crude oil. CL remains high, so U.S. stocks and crypto aren’t able to rally. That’s to be expected. I think Trump may pull a big move around the midterm elections—maybe do a “TACO” or something. It’s certainly possible. If oil prices fall, crypto and U.S. stocks could start rising again. Shu Qin will be waiting right along with you~

AI stocks now account for nearly half of the S&P 500, reaching dot-com bubble levels! How much longer can we feast on this boom?

JPMorgan data shows that 41 AI-related stocks currently account for about 49% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization.

For comparison: the figure was 41% during the 2000 dot-com bubble, 40% during the 1972 “Nifty Fifty” era, and 44% in Japan in 1988 (as a share of the MSCI World Index)—all extremely high levels of concentration.

More importantly, Bianco Research estimates that these 41 stocks contributed around two-thirds of the S&P 500’s year-to-date increase in market capitalization. The index’s impressive performance is largely being carried by them.

These figures are both exciting and unsettling. Exciting, because today’s AI leaders are generating real profits; unsettling, because after the bubble burst in 2000, the S&P 500 fell about 49% from its peak and took several years to recover.

So, is the S&P really in danger?

Xiaoqin believes that high concentration doesn’t mean the market is about to peak, but it is a yellow warning light—at least for chip and memory stocks. Other industries aren’t particularly bubbly and remain relatively stable. The more top-heavy the basket gets, the more opportunity there may be—but it’s all the more important not to forget to diversify.

There’s a good reason not to put all your eggs in one basket. It’s also worth allocating to defensive sectors. Companies like Coca-Cola and McDonald’s, which can weather both bull and bear markets, are solid choices. What share of your portfolio is in AI? Let’s chat in the comments~

☺️US stocks are surging today! This QQQM rebound has been so good~

Wow, everyone, I’m over the moon! Bitcoin is surging and QQQM is bouncing back—it feels amazing. Is it still a good time to get in?

1. Yesterday, our negative premium data showed that Bitcoin retail investors were severely oversold and capitulating—they’d totally lost their heads. If not now, when should we buy the dip? Bitcoin and U.S. stocks started rebounding strongly as soon as the markets opened on Monday. So the question is: will they keep going up?

2. This looks like a good opportunity! For now, watch the resistance around BTC’s 84,000 mark. We’ve shorted it twice before and both trades worked out. But this is the third test. As the saying goes, third time’s the charm—it might break through this time and head higher. If it doesn’t, it can just consolidate a little longer. No big deal.

3. If you bought the dip using highly leveraged futures, you could consider taking some profit as it approaches 84,000. If it pulls back, you can trade another rebound. But if you’re holding spot for the long term, there’s no need to rush. Shuqin says the broader bull-market trend in crypto has already begun, and prices will climb higher from here. The outcome is set; it’s just a matter of time. When the moment comes, things will fall into place naturally.

3. Also, has anyone noticed that the oil short we shared over the weekend worked out too? It dropped 3% from 100—talk about instant results! I think we can just trade the range between 100 and 95. Whenever it gets close to 100, you can open a short position, then take profit after a 5-point drop. No need to hold it for long. Easy money!

4. And QQQM is starting to rebound too! As Shuqin mentioned over the weekend, I added 2 million worth, and today it bounced from 292 to 296. We’re still trading in real time, even over the weekend—I hope you managed to follow along~

😂 The Tesla Roadster took off, but the stock didn’t follow? What should we think as shareholders?

Musk has pulled off another major stunt: the next-generation Roadster made an appearance at the SpaceX test site, with 0–100 km/h acceleration in under one second and flips in midair. The whole internet went wild. But on Friday, the stock surged more than 5% before the market opened, then closed down 2.1% at $354.72.

JPMorgan maintained its “Neutral” rating and $415 price target. The subtext: this is an engineering showcase, not a business plan. Only the special edition comes with thrusters; the version ordinary people can buy will be the standard one.

The timeline is even more awkward. Tesla has been taking $50,000 deposits since 2017, but mass production isn’t scheduled until 2028. Musk has also said that safety may not be its design priority. How are the people managing the money supposed to work that into their valuation models?

Of course, Tesla’s real test comes after the market closes this Wednesday (October 21), when it reports Q3 results. Q3 deliveries came in at 486,500, about 25,000 above the consensus estimate, but still down 2.1% year over year. China retail sales fell about 9.4% year over year in September. Strong deliveries look good, but profits are what matter. The earnings report will show whether price cuts have weighed on gross margins.

Xiao Qin thinks the Roadster is fireworks for the fans, while the earnings report is the answer for shareholders. One more thing to keep in mind: Tesla’s forward P/E remains extremely high at 158x, and many expectations are already priced in. That’s worth understanding.

And before you go, don’t forget to follow—Xiao Qin shares market updates every day~