FED INTEREST CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE INCREASING RAPIDLY: SHENGBAO BANK'S EMPHASIS ON THE DETERMINATIVENESS OF MACRO DATA!!
➡️ Shengbao Bank strategy team announced that expectations about the US economy have changed significantly in the last month. Last month, there was a general belief in the markets that the US would not cut interest rates this year, but now expectations have increased that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates five times by the end of the year.
Short-Term Expectations and Enterprise Risk Management
According to Shengbao Bank, currently short-term expectations are largely shaped by the Risk Management policies of institutional investors. This situation stands out as an important reason for the fluctuation in the markets.
Macro Data and Medium Term Expectations:
➡️ The Bank stated that the medium-term economic outlook will be determined according to new macro data. In this context, indicators such as unemployment rates, inflation data and economic growth are closely monitored.
Possibility of Economic Recession:
➡️ Shengbao Bank remains cautiously optimistic about the economy, estimating that the probability of an economic recession will not exceed 33%. This forecast is based on the bank's macroeconomic analysis and evaluation of available data.
What Do Other Sources Say?
➡️ Various analysts and financial institutions similarly evaluate that interest rate cut expectations have increased and what impact this may have on the markets. For example, some sources suggest that a rate cut could support economic growth by increasing consumer spending.
Conclusion
While interest rate cut expectations for the US economy are changing rapidly, macro data will be decisive in shaping the medium-term outlook. Although economic recession concerns continue, market players and financial institutions continue to update their strategies according to new data.
