[8.5 hedging strategy sharing, recession is coming, stocks and coins are collapsing, will the decline continue? ]
This morning, Black Monday swept the world. Hit by weak US employment and economic data, Asia-Pacific stock markets continued to fall on Monday, Japanese stocks plummeted, and the Nikkei 225 index fell 6%. The currency circle is even more miserable, the implied volatility of big cakes and concubines has soared, and concubines have fallen below 2200.
I have repeatedly reminded you of the black swan before, and I suggest you hang up insurance. Integrate knowledge and action, has anyone listened to the advice and hung up insurance? Then congratulations, you have successfully resisted this tail risk.
Analyzing the main reason for the decline, it is nothing more than the recession mentioned earlier. The recession has turned from expectation to reality. Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a "shallow recession" in the United States to 25%, and the market has expected five interest rate cuts this year.
Uncertainty in the political field is also exacerbating market panic. On the one hand, global instability factors have increased, and geopolitics has triggered local wars, which is bearish for the stock market. On the other hand, the polls of Trump, a supporter of the crypto economy, are declining. As the saying goes, the Trump Emperor is old and Vansde is weak. The Republican presidential campaign is full of thorns again.
How to face the current market situation? It's very simple. Take insurance, avoid ups and downs, and use the high volatility to trade down.
First, for those who want to buy at the bottom, I suggest that you use the method of selling put options beyond one standard deviation of the forward, which is more stable. At the same time, selling puts is also shorting volatility, killing two birds with one stone.
Second, the combination strategy of shorting volatility, which has been shared many times before. Buy near low volatility shallow out-of-the-money, sell forward high volatility deep out-of-the-money, total theta is positive, total vega is negative, and delta can be balanced with contracts.
Finally, I would like to remind everyone that the decline will definitely rebound, but the overall trend is still downward. Don't dream of a sudden turn of trend, that is not in line with the law. Just as we can find risks, we can also find opportunities through changes in volatility.
Maintain the ability to observe details.
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