The July non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate in the United States were far below expectations, with employment growth of only 114,000, far below the forecast of 175,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, also higher than the forecast of 4.1%. At the same time, wage growth and previous employment data were both lowered, indicating that the economy may slide into recession nonlinearly.

Nonlinear recession means that the economy may deteriorate suddenly rather than gradually decline. Sam's Law points out that if the unemployment rate is 0.5% higher than the lowest value in the previous 12 months for three consecutive months, it indicates a recession, with a historical accuracy of 100%. This data directly triggered the law.

Future highlights include:

1. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September is a foregone conclusion, and the market predicts a 50 basis point cut.

2. The interest rate cut is good for the RMB, and the RMB exchange rate has risen sharply.

3. The impact of the US recession on China is complex, and domestic demand pressure has increased, but the easing space of the People's Bank of China has also expanded accordingly.

4. Recession trading may further ferment.

5. The US recession, political uncertainty in the election year and tensions in the Middle East increase the risk of global black swan events.

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