At 2:00 a.m. Thursday, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. Economist Anna Wong believes that the communication of the July meeting will provide initial hints of a September rate cut, and clearly hint that the best time for a September rate cut will be Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting at the end of August. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting in August has always been an opportunity for the Federal Reserve to shift its monetary policy, accommodating the September rate cut.

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Debbie Stabenow, director of the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee, said that a crypto bill has been in the works and a hearing is scheduled for Wednesday. The bill will give the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) authority over "digital commodities" and provide the CFTC with permanent funding to oversee the market. The bill will specifically require cryptocurrency companies to hold adequate capital reserves and set strict cybersecurity standards. Musk participated in the XTakeover podcast of the Tesla Owners Silicon Valley Club◇Musk affirmed the merits of BTC and other cryptocurrencies, but emphasized that he does not promote any cryptocurrency. He admitted that he prefers Dogecoin because he likes dogs and memes, but insisted that any promotion is just a joke. And warned that videos showing him supporting cryptocurrencies are likely to be deep fake videos. On July 30, the Cryptocurrency Panic and Greed Index was 67 (74 yesterday), and the market's greedy sentiment cooled. Bloomberg reported that infrastructure provider Anoma Foundation sought to raise $40 million at a valuation of $1 billion. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission amended its complaint against Bn, seeking to no longer prove that tokens such as SOLANA are securities, a move that currently eliminates the need for the court to rule on the charges against these tokens. The liquidator of FTX Digital Markets Ltd. has initiated the next stage of the liquidation process. FTX customers need to choose whether to participate in the official liquidation process in the Bahamas (the "Bahamas Process") or the Chapter 11 case in the United States (the "U.S. Process"), and must make a choice before 4:00 a.m. on August 17. Raoul Pal, former Goldman Sachs executive and founder of Real Vision, said that BTC will break the cup-handle pattern and enter the banana range. The "banana range" represents a highly cyclical stage. When liquidity enters the market and the Federal Reserve needs to refinance all debts, it will please with candy. At this time, cryptocurrencies usually rise vertically. This is a debt refinancing cycle driven by macroeconomic forces, which affects all asset prices, but cryptocurrencies are particularly outstanding.

Rich Rosenblum, CEO of GSR, said that BTC's market dominance has been rising this month, and BTC may continue to lead the next stage of the bull market cycle. This is the most confident time for him. Altcoins will come back and will come back strongly. Matrixport said that although BTC faces multiple resistances on the upside, the price has rebounded above the range and may usher in a new breakthrough. Yesterday's attempt to break through the trend line failed due to market concerns that the US government will transfer BTC (allegedly just transferred to a new custodial account). There may also be profit-taking before the Fed meeting this week. Regardless of the reason, this setback seems to be temporary, and a new round of breakthroughs may be coming. On July 29, the US BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of US$123.1 million, of which: BlackRock IBIT had a net inflow of US$204.6 million, and Grayscale GBTC had a net outflow of US$54.3 million. On July 29, the US ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of US$98.3 million. Among them: BlackRock ETHA had a net inflow of $58.2 million, Fidelity FETH had a net inflow of $24.8 million, Grayscale ETHE had a net outflow of $210 million, and Grayscale Mini Trust (ETH) had a net inflow of $4.9 million. Fidelity's custodial address received 12,000 ETH in the past 24 hours, and Fidelity currently holds 209,000 ETH, worth approximately $697 million. Samara Cohen, Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock ETFs and Index Investments, discussed the ETH Trust ETF (ETHA) and expects to see the configuration of crypto ETFs in model portfolios by the end of this year or in 2025. Analyst Mads Eberhardt said that the large-scale outflow of funds from the Grayscale ETH ETF may subside this week. Referring to the previous Grayscale ETH ETF, its outflows decreased significantly after the 11th trading day, and the outflows of the Grayscale BTC ETF bottomed out on the seventh trading day, after which the BTC price rose by about 92% in 50 days. In contrast, Grayscale ETH ETF outflows were much faster than GBTC, reaching 17.3% in just four days, and the overall correction of ETH prices relative to BTC was smaller. Economist Anna Wong believes that the communication of the July meeting will only provide initial hints of a September rate cut, and clearly hints that the best time for a September rate cut will be Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting at the end of August, when he will have one more month of employment and inflation data.

Economists at Deutsche Bank said the Fed is expected to start cutting interest rates in September, and the Fed may cut interest rates three times in the second half of the year, suspend interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025, and resume monetary easing in the second half of the year. Philip Wee, a strategist at DBS Bank, said that the Fed should open the door to interest rate cuts at this week's interest rate meeting, but avoid supporting the market's bets on a September rate cut. After the release of the US unemployment rate data on August 2 and the CPI data on August 14, the Fed may give time guidance at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Analyst Noelle Acheson said that Powell is expected to make some "exciting remarks" this week and hint at a rate cut in September. Market observers expect the Fed to announce a rate cut in September, and other central banks such as the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are expected to issue similar statements. On July 30, the MtGox address sent 0.02 BTC to a newly created address (perhaps for testing), and the currency market plummeted. At 2:00 a.m. on Thursday, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%, followed by a press conference by Powell. Powell may give a preliminary hint of a September rate cut at this meeting. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting in August has always been an opportunity for the Fed to shift its monetary policy, in line with the September rate cut. After the ETH spot ETF was listed, traditional asset management giants, mainly BlackRock and Fidelity, increased their holdings, and the old issuer Grayscale sold off. Grayscale's ETH ETF lost $1.72 billion in five days, a decrease of about 18.7%. Fidelity's custodial address received 12,000 ETH in the past 24 hours. Fidelity currently holds 209,000 ETH, worth about $697 million. Grayscale lost market share, and the other eight ETFs increased their market share, corresponding to the trend of spot ETFs that first fell and then rose after listing. Waiting for the Fed's interest rate meeting on Thursday, the Fed's monetary easing policy will lay the tone for the bull market in this round of easing cycle. #比特币大会 #美联储何时降息？ #美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易