This week, we continue to monitor the sell-off in Mentougou. If it can be released to the market slowly and orderly, the existing rebound is expected to be maintained.
Another positive factor is that the US CPI data for June strengthened the consensus on interest rate cuts, which is conducive to the inflow of external funds into the crypto market.
There are two more good news next week:
ETH ETF may be launched;
Trump will attend the BTC conference and give a speech;
The current risk is mainly in Mentougou, which has 140,000 BTC, which will be gradually distributed. Every large transfer of money from a wallet will bring a small panic to BTC. Since yesterday, every pullback is the best time to buy, because the trend of the second half of the year has arrived.
In the face of the trend, no matter how many negative factors there are, they are short-lived and will not change the direction of the market. Therefore, investors can seize the opportunity to pay attention to the dynamics of Mentougou, while paying attention to the expected interest rate cuts in the United States and the launch of ETH ETFs. Staying vigilant and seizing opportunities will make investing in the crypto market more wise.
What do you think of the market in the future? Will the market continue to fall?
Many people believe that the negative impact of this wave of market has basically been exhausted, and there will be a main upward trend in the next 3-4 months. But I personally think it will not be so fast, and investors should be prepared to continue to suffer in the next 3 months.
Currently, Bitcoin is at the strong cross pressure level of MA120 and MA144, and it has not stood firm. I estimate that it will consolidate below this area for a while.
It is not easy to get out during a sharp drop or rise, but the shock and consolidation in the middle is the easiest to wash out the unsteady people. It will constantly hone a person's mind. If you don't get out during a sharp rise, you will be hit by the stick, and during the consolidation process, sometimes the rise and sometimes the fall will confuse you.
In short, the reason why volatility can easily throw people out is because of the error in short-term prediction. Short-term ups and downs are random, and you will often make mistakes in judgment. If you make too many mistakes, you will naturally doubt yourself.
Give up short-term predictions. As long as the overall system framework is configured correctly, let any situation in the short term happen naturally.
The big bull market is still to come. During the consolidation period in the next few months, if you equip yourself with the right track and continue to accumulate chips, you will most likely reap the rewards later.
The bull market is about to reach the altcoin outbreak stage:
1. Healthy market correction
No coin can continue to rise without a correction, and adjustments are healthy and lay the foundation for a strong bull market. In each cycle, Bitcoin will pull back to its previous historical high several times before breaking through strongly.
Traditional investors sell, and new investors buy. In this process, Bitcoin is transferred from weak hands to strong hands. This is a very bullish sign! Investors who bought Bitcoin in the $50,000 and $60,000 range will not sell at $73,000, they will hold it for longer, aiming to double their profits.
2. Market selling pressure eased
The market works very simply, the price of an asset is determined by supply and demand. If there are more buyers than sellers, the price goes up; if there are more sellers than buyers, the price goes down.
In the second quarter, Bitcoin faced tremendous selling pressure from Bitcoin mining companies, Grayscale and Bitcoin ETFs, the German government, and fear and uncertainty surrounding Mt. Gox.
These events combined to lead to selling pressure on Bitcoin, with altcoins following Bitcoin’s lead.
The good news is that the selling pressure is easing: Grayscale’s sell-off has slowed significantly, the German government is out of Bitcoin, Bitcoin mining companies are almost done selling, and Mt. Gox will slowly refund creditors in the third quarter, not All refunds at once.
In Q3, there will still be some selling pressure (Mt. Gox), but not as much as in Q2. Once the market absorbs these bitcoins and the sellers run out, the price will stabilize.
Future buying power:
US election
Rate cuts
Bankrupt exchange FTX refunds customers
The U.S. market is a major player in the crypto industry, so the dynamics of the U.S. market and changes in crypto policies can have a significant impact on the entire industry.
Cryptocurrency has become a key issue in the US election. Trump called himself the "crypto president", and the Biden administration quickly adjusted its anti-crypto stance after seeing the success of Trump's pro-crypto stance. Both parties are vying for the support of crypto voters, and the prospects are promising! The US election will be held in November 2024. As the election day approaches, the two parties will become more intense in their efforts to win the support of crypto voters, which will increase the awareness of cryptocurrencies among all American citizens and people around the world who are paying attention to the election, and they will attract more ordinary investors to enter the market.
Rate cuts = rising prices for risky assets. After each rate cut, holding cash in a bank account becomes less attractive because the bank's annual interest will decrease, and the rich will readjust their portfolios and increase their investments in risky assets (including cryptocurrencies), which will increase liquidity in the risky market.
Another special factor that will significantly increase buying power in Q4 is that FTX will begin refunding customers in Q4. In Q4, FTX will distribute $16 billion to its customers.
