Bitcoin suffered one of its more dramatic declines ever last Thursday at least in part thanks to the realization that a strengthening economy means interest rates are likely to stay on the rise.
Consumer spending and new home sales data for July both came in stronger than expected last week, prompting the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool to up its forecast to very speedy 5.8% GDP growth in the third quarter (July-Aug-Sept)
Those sorts of numbers are typically just seen coming out of recessions and the only time the U.S. has experienced such fast growth in the last decade was in a few of the quarters following the Covid lockdown-induced economic collapse
This week brings the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium and a keynote speech Friday morning from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Ahead of the talk, the WSJ’s Nick Timaros – known as the Fed Whisperer for his close contacts within the U.S. central bank – Monday morning wrote a column suggesting officials believe the so-called neutral rate of interest could be far higher than previously thought. It’s a fairly wonkish subject, but the takeaway is that the Fed’s benchmark fed funds target – currently at 5.25%-5.50% – could stay a lot higher for a lot longer than market participants expect.
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