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In the latest research report, analysts at Deutsche Bank warn that a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran is rapidly reversing global market sentiment. The risk of prolonged energy supply disruptions, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, has directly driven oil prices sharply higher, while in Asia, the yield on Japan’s 5-year government bonds has risen by 4.0 basis points to a new record level of 2.295%.

This development shows that the market is facing a double shock: surging geopolitical risk and the return of inflation fears. Elevated energy prices threaten central banks’ efforts to contain inflation, forcing investors to reprice expectations regarding the timing of tightening or the postponement of monetary easing on a broad scale.

A sell-off wave has spread across both global equities and bond markets as capital flows seek safer-haven channels. The sharp jump in bond yields reflects increased cost pressures, putting heavy strain on liquidity in financial markets and causing the USD index and the prices of essential commodities to swing violently.

For the crypto market, this negative macro pressure is significantly reducing risk appetite. Short-term capital tends to move into a defensive posture, putting $BTC and various altcoins under adjustment pressure; investors should closely monitor oil price movements and Middle East tensions before opening large positions.

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Following the hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh last Friday, as tensions escalated between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) for three-month delivery fell for two consecutive sessions to below $14,200 per ton. The continuously rising oil prices over three straight sessions are reviving fears of inflation and weighing on the outlook for the global economy.

Copper is seen as a gauge of the world economy’s health. Although this metal’s price is still up nearly 4% in August thanks to tighter supply, the upswing has now been checked. The market is beginning to reprice the risk that the Fed may need to keep raising interest rates to rein in price pressures stemming from the energy crisis, rather than easing policy as previously expected.

In traditional financial markets, the combination of geopolitical risk and inflation concerns is driving bond yields and the USD higher, while also putting downward pressure on industrial commodities and other risk assets. A cautious mood is causing capital to pull back from highly leveraged positions in search of safer havens.

For the crypto market, this macro pressure is capping the breakout momentum of $BTC . With global liquidity facing the risk of tightening further and risk-aversion sentiment prevailing, fresh inflows into crypto may stall in the near term, keeping the market in a range-bound accumulation phase until the interest-rate picture becomes clearer. 🌐

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The Jackson Hole conference has just dealt a strong blow to the market’s expectations of easing monetary policy. A Fed representative sent an extremely hawkish message, asserting that inflation has not cooled down quickly enough to reach the 2% target, while current financial conditions are not even truly restrictive. The economy and the labor market are still holding strong, opening up the possibility that the Fed may need to keep raising interest rates in upcoming meetings rather than reversing policy prematurely.

In an immediate reaction, yields on US Treasury bonds with a 2-year maturity jumped to 4.28%, reflecting investors repricing the risk that interest rates will remain high for longer. This pressure not only weighs on precious metals but also directly affects liquidity in risk assets. For the crypto market, $BTC is likely to face a period of intense volatility and short-term adjustment pressure as macro capital flows return to a defensive stance.

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