In trading on Wednesday, Brent oil prices officially surpassed the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since July 24, marking a 25% increase since the beginning of the previous month as U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated seriously.
This price surge reflects a severe deterioration in expectations of conflict de-escalation, especially as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply from 8–9 million barrels per day to below 2 million barrels per day, according to data from Rystad Energy. A number of major banks, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and HSBC, have all raised their oil price forecasts, while the IEA estimates that global supply this year will drop by 4% (around 4.3 million barrels per day) despite efforts to increase production from non-OPEC countries.
The oil price shock above $100 is reigniting global inflationary pressure, directly threatening the timeline for monetary policy easing by central banks. Government bond yields and the U.S. dollar are likely to stay at elevated levels due to concerns that the Fed will be forced to keep interest rates tight for longer, creating sell-off pressure on stock markets and other risk assets.
For the crypto market, pressure from macro monetary policy will trigger short-term defensive sentiment, tightening capital flows into
$BTC and altcoins. However, if inflation persists alongside deep geopolitical instability, the argument that Bitcoin is a decentralized store of value could attract safe-haven flows in the medium and long term.
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