ibit

Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin’s recent drop wasn’t caused by panic selling — it was likely institutional hedging.
According to Hayes, big banks like Morgan Stanley have created structured notes linked to BlackRock’s #IBIT ETF. These are bank-made products that depend on Bitcoin’s price.
When $BTC moves, banks must buy or sell BTC/futures to hedge their risk. This process is called delta hedging.
The problem?
When price falls, banks are forced to sell more BTC, which pushes price even lower. This creates a feedback loop that amplifies volatility.
Hayes says he’s now tracking these products because they can reveal:
Forced selling zones
Forced buying levels
Sudden large moves with no news
Bottom line:
Bitcoin is now plugged into Wall Street’s derivative system. Price moves are no longer just about sentiment — they’re also driven by bank risk models and automated hedging.
Welcome to the era of institutional volatility. 🚀📉

BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), recorded $231.6 million in net inflows on Friday, rebounding after two consecutive sessions of heavy outflows during a highly volatile week for the Bitcoin market.
Earlier in the week, IBIT saw a combined $548.7 million withdrawn on Wednesday and Thursday, as broader crypto market sentiment deteriorated sharply. During that period, Bitcoin briefly dropped toward the $60,000 level, reflecting intensified risk-off behavior across both spot and derivatives markets, according to data from Farside Investors.
Preliminary figures from Farside indicate that nine U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively recorded $330.7 million in net inflows on Friday, following three prior sessions that saw total net outflows of approximately $1.25 billion.
ETF Flows as a Gauge of Investor Sentiment
Since the start of 2026, IBIT has posted net inflows on only 11 trading days, highlighting the uneven and cautious positioning of institutional investors amid heightened volatility.
Market participants closely monitor spot Bitcoin ETF flows as a proxy for institutional demand and medium-term sentiment. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has declined by approximately 24.3%, and at the time of writing, BTC was trading around $69,820, according to CoinMarketCap.
Despite the price weakness, liquidity in IBIT surged. On Thursday, the fund recorded a daily trading volume of $10 billion, marking its highest single-day turnover since launch, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. Elevated volume during down moves is often interpreted as a sign of repositioning rather than simple capitulation.
IBIT Rebounds After Sharp Sell-Off
Balchunas noted that IBIT fell 13% in a single session, marking its second-largest daily decline since inception. The largest one-day drop occurred on May 8, 2024, when the ETF declined by approximately 15%.
However, IBIT staged a notable rebound on Friday, rising 9.92% to close at $39.68, based on Google Finance data. The sharp recovery suggests that dip-buying interest remains present, even as broader market uncertainty persists.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart commented that although Bitcoin ETF holders are currently facing their largest unrealized losses since U.S. spot ETFs launched in January 2024—estimated at around 42% when Bitcoin trades below $73,000—the scale of recent outflows remains relatively modest compared to the massive inflows seen during the market’s peak.
Longer-Term Context for Bitcoin ETFs
Before the market downturn that began in October, total cumulative net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached approximately $62.11 billion. Following the recent drawdown, that figure has declined to around $55 billion, indicating that a significant portion of institutional capital remains invested despite ongoing volatility.
This suggests that while short-term sentiment has weakened, long-term conviction among ETF investors has not fully broken, even after one of the most challenging periods for Bitcoin since ETF approval.
Conclusion
IBIT’s $231 million inflow following one of its worst daily performances highlights the complex and evolving behavior of institutional investors in the Bitcoin ETF era. Rather than signaling outright abandonment, recent flows point to active rebalancing, selective dip-buying, and cautious risk management amid heightened uncertainty.
As Bitcoin ETFs continue to mature, their flow dynamics are likely to play an increasingly important role in shaping short-term price action and overall market structure.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects a personal blog-style analysis. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
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#BTC #IBIT #BitcoinETF

$BTC BlackRock’s IBIT traded $10 billion yesterday — a historic high.
The previous record? $8B in November last year. Normally, $3B is considered active.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas called it: “Brutal.”
Because this $10B wasn’t a buy — IBIT dropped 13% that day, marking the second worst single-day performance since launch.
Put option premiums hit historic highs, 25 volatility points above Calls.
This is institutional hedging, or more bluntly, taking a loss.
Data from Bob Elliott (CIO, Unlimited Funds):
As of Friday’s close, the average purchase cost of IBIT is underwater.
All the money in IBIT is below average price.
What does this mean?
Every IBIT holder is asking the same question:
“How much longer do I have to endure?

#BlackRock #IBIT #ETF #MarketVolatility #InstitutionalInvesting

$BTC