$ARM keeps going at it all day, up 8%—and funding is still positive at 0.00024613. The longs pay protection fees to the shorts while watching their account shrink right in front of them—this scene is too classic. The previous round of a similar setup was early April, when
$ARM slid from 300 down to 270 with funding positive the whole time. Just when everyone thought it was about to collapse and it dropped below 260, a short squeeze suddenly hit—hard—ripping it up 13% in two days. The question now is: with this positive funding in front of us, is it stubbornness from the longs… or stupidity? My take is that it’s far more stupid than stubborn.
Trump’s hand in semiconductors is a total mess. He’s calling for moving semiconductor manufacturing back onshore, while swinging a tariff bat wildly, pushing global supply chains to the breaking point.
$ARM does architecture licensing and doesn’t manufacture chips itself—so it’s caught in the worst spot, squeezed right in the middle. The broader market is digesting Trump’s new statements today: S&P futures are down 0.6%, and the Nasdaq is down even more. For a high-beta growth stock like
$ARM , the moment the market even slightly loosens its grip, it falls the hardest—no surprises there.
Now look at OI: 22,408 contracts. Roughly estimating by current price, that’s a few million dollars worth of volume—not huge, not tiny—but the positioning is highly concentrated in the 280–290 range. 278 has already fallen below the recent dense positioning zone. If tonight’s U.S. stock market open doesn’t get
$ARM back above 280, then 265 below is the next liquidation wall. Crossing it is only a matter of time.
I’m not going long right now. In a downtrend, funding is still positive—in my view, that’s a trap. When it’s up, positive funding is normal for sentiment; when it’s down and still positive, then the longs are collectively making a big mistake. Anyone charging in to catch the falling knife is basically handing free money to the people who pulled the cart ahead.
My thinking is very straightforward:
- Aggressive: If
$ARM bounces back to 285±2, and funding stays positive, I’ll open a 0.5x short immediately, with a stop-loss at 295. My first take-profit target is 270.
- Conservative: If it breaks straight through 275, I won’t chase a short. I’ll wait and keep a close eye near 260 to see whether OI shows a clear reduction.
Trading tags:
#TradFi #链上美股 #ARM
For people trading ARM, how should you respond to this headline?