#XAU โ UPDATE PLAN
Prices have been rejected in the 4,740โ4,755 peak zone and are now pulling back to check the entire lower value area. The current M30 candle opened around 4,712, pushed down to 4,670.5, and is now trading around 4,682.
This indicates that the sellers are controlling the short-term momentum and have already broken through the lower edge of the 4,685โ4,714 value zone. However, the M30 candle has not closed yet, so this is currently only a breakdown attempt; it is not enough to conclude that the market has accepted trading lower.
Areas to watch:
โข 4,685โ4,695: the lower edge of the old value, now becoming the decision zone when price retraces.
โข 4,670โ4,676: the zone that was just swept; watch for absorption behavior or whether sellers continue to control.
โข 4,658โ4,668: the deeper defensive zone of the M30 structure.
โข 4,700โ4,714: the price area that must be reclaimed if buyers want to correct the current bearish move.
Sell continuation scenario:
Wait for the M30 candle to close below 4,685. Then watch for an M5 pullback to test 4,685โ4,695, but if it cannot reclaim that zone, with buyers showing effort yet not producing results and a failed return appearingโonly then prioritize a Short entry, with the next observation zones being 4,670 and 4,658โ4,668.
Failed breakdown scenario:
If price wicks down and then reclaims above 4,685, and afterward the M5 retest holds within 4,682โ4,688, then the current bearish move may only be a liquidity sweep. In that case, price has a higher chance of correcting back to 4,695โ4,704. Only if value is rebuilt above 4,704 and 4,714 is reclaimed will buyers truly regain control.
I updated the image to be clearer
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