pada_research

🧧Congrats to the crew for hitting the trade in the right direction, keep an eye on those TP levels I shared.
🔸 Wishing you all a great evening.$BTC
#Pada_Research $BTC

THE 30-YEAR TREASURY BOND YIELD HITS 5.28%, THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2007.

The 10-year yield also reaches 4.75%, the highest in 18 months.

The rising term premium is driving this— the additional return investors demand to accept greater risk.

Investors are concerned about future interest-rate hikes.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has sharply reduced guidance on future rate decisions.

Previously, investors used this guidance to estimate where interest rates would go, especially in the short term.

Now they have to price in greater uncertainty.

Inflation adds further pressure. Energy costs are still 14.7% higher than last year, while geopolitical tensions could push oil prices and prices in general back up.

Short-term yields are reacting to the Fed’s unclear policy, while added inflation and policy risks are pushing longer-term yields even higher.
#Pada_Research #tinkinhte

$BTC Strong support zone around 64K and fairly long compression, so this week the plan will be as shown in the chart: watch for adjustments in the 638–64 zone with a Long signal to go back up to the upper zone.
If it breaks above 67, it could reach a maximum ping around 70–72K. When it reaches this zone, Sell strongly back to the 43K zone.
#Pada_Research

I still maintain the downtrend outlook, so today $BTC đ closing the candle was quite bad, so:
🔸 Sell now: 64100. Dca: 64700.
🔸 SL: 65800.
🔸 TP: 61800.
With information suggesting there will be negotiations causing the price to rise recently, I believe it’s only a temporary pullback; the price will soon return to the main trend.
🎉 Wishing everyone success in the trade!
#Pada_Research

$BTC dù Fed giữ nguyên lãi suất nhưng market có quá nhiều tin xấu nên plan cũ vẫn giữ vẫn gồng về các vùng TP anh em nhé:
Plan cũ tại đây !

🔴 Strategy: The announcement will continue selling Bitcoin and will no longer allocate all new capital to buying BTC.

🔸 With declining confidence, it is expected that today BTC will run very fast, combined with selling ETH.
#Pada_Research

Hardliners in Iran accuse President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of taking advantage of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s absence to carry out a “soft coup,” aiming to reduce the role of the Supreme Leader and the parliament, while also pushing for negotiations with the United States.

Those aligned with hardline views believe that the current government has “surrendered” to Washington by signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and is trying to concentrate power in the National Security Council.

Commentary: As long as real power remains in the hands of military power centers and the clerical establishment rather than an elected civilian government, the outlook for a durable peace remains very fragile. A civilian government can only pursue dialogue and stability when it holds real authority over the formulation and implementation of national policy.
#Pada_Research $BTC

Yesterday there was very bad news: the possibility that the Fed could unexpectedly raise interest rates in the near future.
News 2: The Clarity bill is good for crypto, but the timeline could be delayed.
News 3: US–Iran negotiations have not been confirmed.
These news items have affected the price path, causing our plan to Fail. Nhận định hôm qua

🔸 Current plan: price will bounce up to 64K; then we will slightly cut losses on the orders from yesterday. After that, we will Sell down to these price zones:
TP 1: 62000
TP 2: 60600
TP3: 58000

🔸 If the Fed truly raises interest rates or if Clarity is officially postponed, then hitting the TPs is only a matter of time; patience with swing trading will earn long-term profits.

🎉 Wishing everyone a win!
#Pada_Research

🔴 The US tightens the terms of the deal with Iran, proposals have been sent to Iran.

According to the New York Times, three officials reported that President Donald Trump has tightened the terms of the potential deal framework aimed at ending the war with Iran and has made amendment proposals for Iran to consider. It's unclear what specific changes Trump has made to the deal text. Two officials noted that Trump is concerned about the part related to the release of Iranian funds in the potential deal. He often criticizes the approach of former President Obama in the agreement signed a decade ago aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program. One official mentioned that Trump is also disappointed because Iran has yet to respond to the proposals from the US. These proposals have gone through several rounds of negotiations involving intermediaries, including Pakistan. This official stated that the amendments proposed by Trump — which represent a stricter new proposal — may be aimed at pressuring Iran to quickly push for acceptance of the deal framework that has been sent for approval from Supreme Leader Khamenei.
#Pada_Research #Iran

🚨 US seizes $1 billion in crypto from Iran. 🇮🇷🇺🇸

Bessent on Iran: "We've confiscated around $1 billion in crypto from Iran. We've directly taken control of the wallets." "Some of them might be entering their info right now and may not realize that their wallets have been compromised.
🔸 To me, this is nothing short of robbery because everyone has human rights; why impose and blatantly steal like this?
What do you all think? Let me know in the comments below.
#Pada_Research #Iran

Chinese and US Stocks
Since May 31, 2021, the US S&P 500 index has surged nearly 80%, while China's CSI 300 index is still down 15%.
This nearly 100% gap reflects two completely contrasting narratives. In the US, the explosive wave of artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and colossal tech corporations has continuously pushed the market to new all-time highs.
Conversely, China is grappling with a prolonged real estate crisis, weakened consumer confidence, and a tight regulatory environment imposed by the state on the private sector.
China, the world's second-largest economy, recorded a GDP growth of 5% in Q1 2026, with a record trade surplus of $1.19 trillion, yet their stock market is nearly in reverse.
#Pada_Research

💡 Night play for the Longs
#BTC Now 71300.
TP 74000. SL 70K.
#NEAR Now 2400.
TP 2.8. SL 2.295.
Wishing everyone wins so we can grab breakfast tomorrow!
#Pada_Research

🚨 Trump rejects Iran's latest proposal. 🇮🇷

Trump turned down Iran's latest offer last Friday, stressing to his aides that Tehran needs to make serious concessions right off the bat, not over an extended period.
#Pada_Research

Kuwait activates its air defense system in response to 'missile and drone threats' as the US continues launching new airstrikes against Iran

🔹 The US military has carried out additional strikes targeting a military site in Bandar Abbas

🔹 US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that US forces also shot down 4 Iranian suicide drones that were deemed a threat to the Strait of Hormuz

🔹 According to CENTCOM, the site in Bandar Abbas was hit just before Iran was set to launch its 5th drone

🔹 Meanwhile, Kuwait announced that its air defense system has been activated to counter 'threats from hostile missiles and drones'

🔹 The Kuwaiti military stated that the explosions heard by civilians were from the air defense system intercepting airborne targets

📉 The Stock futures market is in the red, with gold and BTC dropping
🛢️ Oil is up nearly 4%, now sitting at $92
#Pada_Research

🔸 🔹 11:55: As of the time of this post, the Iranian Foreign Ministry has stated that the US is using the excuse of Iran downing an "Apache" helicopter to launch attacks in southern Iran. This action severely violates the United Nations Charter, once again exposing the criminal war nature of the US. In response to the US military aggression against Iran, as well as the blatant violation of Iran's national sovereignty and territorial integrity, the Iranian armed forces have exercised their inherent right to self-defense, carrying out a strong counterattack on US bases and assets in the region, which are the source of the crimes.
#Pada_Research $BTC

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Axios: The U.S. and Iran have struck a temporary ceasefire deal for 60 days and are opening negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, but are still waiting for President Trump’s green light.

🔹 The agreement includes ensuring that shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz operate "without restrictions"; Iran must clear all mines within 30 days, and the U.S. will gradually lift naval blockades.

🔹 Iran is reportedly committed to not developing nuclear weapons, while the U.S. will discuss easing sanctions, unfreezing assets, and providing humanitarian aid to Iran.

🔹 According to Axios, President Trump wants a few more days to weigh his final decision.

🛢️ Oil prices are currently dipping below $89.
#Pada_Research #BTC $BTC

📣 The Bank of Japan is keeping its bond-buying strategy, which is bullish news for the market:

🔹 10:21: The Central Bank of Japan: New monetary market operations guidelines will take effect from June 17.
🔴 10:21: The Bank of Japan: From April 2027, it will pause reducing bond purchases, maintaining the monthly purchase scale of Japanese government bonds at around 2 trillion yen.
🔴 10:21: After the BoJ's interest rate decision was announced, the USD/JPY pair jumped over 10 pips in the short term, reaching 160.22.
🔴 10:21: The Bank of Japan will continue to hike policy rates based on economic activity, price levels, and financial conditions.
👉 Close the position 66666 and wait to short at 68, or long at 68 or 67.
#Pada_Research $BTC

🏦 Monetary Policy
• Citadel warns the Fed might hike rates in September due to persistent inflation 📈
• CME FedWatch: probability of a Fed rate hike in 2025 rises to 59.4% from 57.3% 🚨
• Walsh might ditch the dot plot for the first time in 14 years, leaving the market directionless 💥

🛢️ Oil / Energy
• API crude inventory decreased by 833k barrels, surpassing the consensus of 451.5k – bullish for prices 🛢️
• Iran exports oil for the first time in 2 months: 2 VLCCs carrying 380k barrels break the blockade 📉

💱 FX / Currency
• StoneX warns Japan may intervene in USD/JPY ahead of the Fed, if FOMC is hawkish then a breakout is likely ⚠️
• US government shutdown threat: Democrats oppose increasing defense spending, risk of closure
#Pada_Research

🔹 17:45: On June 12th, according to official reports from Iran's National News Agency, local time on the 12th, the main framework of the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US regarding the cessation of hostilities includes the following points: First, the nuclear issue remains unchanged. The current memorandum does not relate to agreements concerning nuclear matters, and Iran will not make any new commitments. Negotiations on the nuclear issue will occur within 60 days after the agreement is signed. Second, the Strait of Hormuz: no transfer of management rights, nor any role granted to the US.
#Pada_Research #Iran