pada_research

🧧Congrats to the crew for hitting the trade in the right direction, keep an eye on those TP levels I shared.
🔸 Wishing you all a great evening.$BTC
#Pada_Research $BTC

$BTC dù Fed giữ nguyên lãi suất nhưng market có quá nhiều tin xấu nên plan cũ vẫn giữ vẫn gồng về các vùng TP anh em nhé:
Plan cũ tại đây !

🔴 Strategy: The announcement will continue selling Bitcoin and will no longer allocate all new capital to buying BTC.

🔸 With declining confidence, it is expected that today BTC will run very fast, combined with selling ETH.
#Pada_Research

Hardliners in Iran accuse President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of taking advantage of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s absence to carry out a “soft coup,” aiming to reduce the role of the Supreme Leader and the parliament, while also pushing for negotiations with the United States.

Those aligned with hardline views believe that the current government has “surrendered” to Washington by signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and is trying to concentrate power in the National Security Council.

Commentary: As long as real power remains in the hands of military power centers and the clerical establishment rather than an elected civilian government, the outlook for a durable peace remains very fragile. A civilian government can only pursue dialogue and stability when it holds real authority over the formulation and implementation of national policy.
#Pada_Research $BTC

Yesterday there was very bad news: the possibility that the Fed could unexpectedly raise interest rates in the near future.
News 2: The Clarity bill is good for crypto, but the timeline could be delayed.
News 3: US–Iran negotiations have not been confirmed.
These news items have affected the price path, causing our plan to Fail. Nhận định hôm qua

🔸 Current plan: price will bounce up to 64K; then we will slightly cut losses on the orders from yesterday. After that, we will Sell down to these price zones:
TP 1: 62000
TP 2: 60600
TP3: 58000

🔸 If the Fed truly raises interest rates or if Clarity is officially postponed, then hitting the TPs is only a matter of time; patience with swing trading will earn long-term profits.

🎉 Wishing everyone a win!
#Pada_Research

⚖️ Regulation
• EU bans HTX trading from 23/8 due to Russia sanctions.
🧩 Other
• BitMart shuts down after 9 years, BMX token soars 58%.
🛢️ Oil / Energy
• Iran seizes 6 vessels in Hormuz, claiming control of the strait 🚨
• Iran considers a law to charge ships through Hormuz, banning Israeli vessels 🛢️
• The US inspects oil tankers in the Arabian Sea and destroys 2 ships, rendering them unable to operate 💥
• Saudi oil exports rise 19.5% thanks to a pipeline route via Hormuz 📈
• WTI breaks below $86, jumps 4.7% in the session—demand pressure 📉

🌍 Geopolitics
• Ukraine attacks an Iranian ship in the Caspian, opening a new front 🔥
• The US and Ukraine plan to send a proposal to pause airstrikes on Russia ⚠️
• The US-Iran officially responds to the Pakistan-Qatar reconciliation proposal 🕊️
• Netanyahu is set to meet Trump, ready to escalate in the West Bank 🚨
#Pada_Research

🌍 Geopolitics
• Iran launches a coordinated wave of UAV strikes on 3 U.S. bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait — claims of causing casualties 💥
• The oil tanker "Disha" is hit by a missile in the Strait of Hormuz; the U.S. warns it will fire at the engines 🚨
• The Houthis block the Strait of Mandeb, Saudi Arabia stuck hard on both oil export routes — risk of a dual supply disruption
• Ukraine launches UAV strikes on a defense plant & a deep oil depot inside Russia (1350 km from the border)

🛢️ Oil / Energy
• WTI falls 3.5% to 88.99$, Brent drops 4% to 96.44$ — takes profit after surging to 100$ 🛢️
• Black Sea: attacks on port infrastructure & cargo ships push wheat to a two-year high (7.11$/bushel) 📈
• The EU is confident: there’s no immediate shortage of oil, but it admits that prolonged conflict will tighten the market

🥇 Gold / Metals
• Gold rebounds from the low of 4022$ to 4060$ but is pressured by U.S. yields & a strong USD 📈
• Silver rises above 58$ (+1%), platinum edges up to 1600$, palladium sits at the floor (-5.5%) — metals moving against the trend

🏦 Monetary Policy
• ECB holds a closed-door meeting: many officials give the green light for raising rates in September because oil at 100$ is driving inflation ⚠️
• BOJ: internal information confirms keeping the rate unchanged at 1% next week — the yen is still bleeding 📉
• Russia cuts rates by 25bp to 14%, but warns that inflation of 6–7% in 2026 will persist due to fuel prices 🔥
• U.S.: 10-year yields jump to 4.71% (2025 peak), 30-year hits 5.19% — an extremely strong bond sell-off

📊 Macro / Data
• Eurozone PMI for July exceeds 51.9; Germany & France rebound — but oil threatens the upward momentum
• U.K.: June retail unexpectedly rises +1% thanks to the World Cup & hot weather, but pressure from energy costs remains heavy

💱 FX / Currency
• USDJPY stands at 163.93; BOJ is powerless — the U.S. calls on Japan to raise rates but Tokyo stays silent 📉
• India’s rupee holds at 96.56
#Pada_Research

$BTC there are currently many bad news making the fighting escalate, so the probability is very high that it will adjust to the 65300-64500 area, guys.

🔸SELL on dips because this morning I already placed a sell!

Bài viết tại đây !

🎉 Wishing you success. Sell along with BTC as well; included are $ETH $WLD and take profit—everything when BTC hits take profit.
#Pada_Research

💡 According to intelligence assessments shared by Israel with the United States, Iran has secretly moved thousands of uranium enrichment centrifuges into deep tunnel systems beneath Pickaxe Mountain, near the Natanz nuclear facility, following recent conflicts.
Worried that Tehran is preparing a breakout capability to produce nuclear weapons from a site that is almost impenetrable, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is believed to have urged U.S. President Donald Trump to allow preemptive airstrikes. Trump also confirmed that this option is still being considered.
Iran’s move suggests that conventional airstrikes may be unable to neutralize its nuclear program. By placing uranium enrichment infrastructure into tunnels through granite bedrock, it creates an almost indestructible nuclear shield.
The White House still leaving open the possibility of attacking Pickaxe Mountain indicates the risk of a large-scale operation using bunker-busting bombs, which could push the entire region into a wider war.
#Pada_Research $BTC Sell Now.

$BTC đóng nến D quite beautiful so the plan is as follows:
🔸 Buy now: 653xx dca: 650xx - 64500.
🔸 TP: 67000. SL: 63900.
$ETH Buy together with BTC.

- Some morning news:
🛢️ Oil / Energy
• War risk insurance for Hormuz rises 10% – a record since the conflict began 🚨
• Chevron shuts Petronius (U.S. Gulf) due to Hurricane Bertha, causing production disruptions

💱 FX / Currency
• The U.S. threatens a 50% tariff on Canada starting 19/8 for automobiles – CAD takes a hit 📉

🌍 Geopolitics
• The U.S. launches its 10th consecutive strike on Iran, targeting Hormuz capabilities 🔥
• A Saudi-led coalition opens the Bab el-Mandeb campaign, ready to retaliate against the Houthis
• The U.S. Senate is about to submit a sanctions bill against Russia – risks to oil supply.
#Pada_Research

💵 Long-term Bitcoin holder reduces selling pressure
- On-chain data shows that the group of investors holding Bitcoin for 1–2 years has significantly reduced their sell volume after a period of market correction.
- Some analysts see this as a positive sign, indicating that the profit-taking pressure from long-term holders is gradually weakening compared with previous months.

🦄 Uniswap considers expanding the fee-collection mechanism
- The Uniswap community is voting on a proposal to expand the fee-collection mechanism across multiple pools of Uniswap v4.
- The proposal also includes applying this model on the Robinhood Chain. The vote is expected to run until July 26.

📌 Notable point: Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin has remained stable as selling pressure from long-term holders gradually eases. Meanwhile, the market continues to wait for new signals from the Fed, while the DeFi ecosystem still maintains active development with upgrade proposals from Uniswap.
#Pada_Research

U.S. President D. Trump orders the U.S. War Department to “open the gates of hell” against Iran’s IRGC, “crush attacks” … after 2 American soldiers were killed in Jordan while intercepting Iranian IRGC missiles and drones launched into a Middle Eastern country outside this Gulf region!
Large-scale airstrikes by U.S. forces across the Middle East against IRGC terror targets are taking place throughout Iran’s territory!
Meanwhile, the latest reports show signs that a coup may be brewing in Iran… Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has been placed under undisclosed house arrest! … as the Iranian government wants to negotiate in search of peace, but IRGC terrorism and its so-called holy-war axis want war and continue to indiscriminately bombard across the Middle East!
Israel and a host of Gulf countries are on high alert and ready to take part in the war!
The White House and the U.S. State Department are urging American citizens to leave the Middle East immediately!
#Pada_Research

🌍 Geopolitics
• Iran fires missiles hitting a US ship in the Indian Ocean—tensions in the Strait of Hormuz peak 🚨
• Iran: shifts to full-scale attacks if the US continues bombardment 💥
• The US launches further strikes: 5 explosions in Yazd, 3 civilians killed in Hormozgan 🔥

🛢️ Oil / Energy
• WTI for August rises to 82.49 (+4.48%)—supply fears from Hormuz drive fuel prices 📈
• CFTC: Spek long WTI increases by +11.7k lots to 252.8k lots—the bulls fight hard 🛢️

🥇 Gold / Metals
• OTC gold breaks 4000 USD (+0.5%)—a new all-time high in the rush for safe-haven assets 🥇
• CFTC: net long COMEX gold up 4.3k to 119k lots—money flows into safe havens 📈
• OTC silver surges to 53 USD—tight liquidity, extremely volatile ⚡

🏦 Monetary Policy
• FedWatch: 85.6% hold rates unchanged in July, 51.2% raise by 25bp in September 🏦
#Pada_Research

🌍 Geopolitics
• The US launches a second round of attacks on Iran, targeting Hormozgan, Sistan, and Khuzestan 🚨
• The US fires at the oil tanker Belma heading toward Kharg, tightening the blockade of Hormuz 🔥
• The IRGC declares the next phase: destroying US military facilities in the region ⚠️

🛢️ Oil / Energy
• WTI breaks above $80, Brent rises to $86 after a new escalation 📈
• The US strengthens the blockade of Hormuz; oil tankers are fired upon—supply freezes
• IEA: Hormuz must reopen within weeks, otherwise a global energy crisis

🥇 Gold / Metals
• XAU rebounds strongly to $4080, ignoring pressure from yields 🥇

🏦 Monetary Policy
• CME Fed: 88.8% expect rates to stay unchanged in July; pressure to cool down 📊

💱 FX / Currency
• The USD index falls 0.43%; the JPY keeps sliding to 165 before Japan intervenes 💱
• South Korea estimates it will use the stabilization fund to buy USD from SK Hynix ADR to avoid KRW fluctuations
#Pada_Research

$BTC all economic news that supports the rebound uptrend despite the escalation of conflicts pushing oil prices higher.
👉 Long/short plan (short-term):
🔸 Entry: 64039 - 63839.
🔸 SL: if it breaks through 62K.
🔸 TP: 67-68K. At this point, we will temporarily stop monitoring.

$ETH enter the trade when BTC matches.
🎉 Wishing everyone success!

#Pada_Research

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he would make inflation a "thing of the past" and stressed that the Fed's top priority is to steer monetary policy in the right direction to restore price stability.

Warsh criticized the Fed's previous policy framework for allowing inflation to run above the 2% target, saying this was a mistake that has kept inflation elevated for years.

He also assessed that the U.S. economy is still growing steadily and believes that the wave of investment in AI will help boost productivity, thereby easing inflation pressure in the long term.

However, Warsh's message indicates that the Fed is still leaning toward the scenario of keeping interest rates high for an extended period.
#Pada_Research

🔥CPI 🇺🇸

📊 CPI this month 🇺🇸: 3.5% | Forecast: 3.8% | Previous: 4.2%
📊 Core CPI this month 🇺🇸: 2.6% | Forecast: 2.9% | Previous: 2.9%

Sudden CPI drop is great for Crypto. Brothers, close all Sell orders nhé.
#Pada_Research $BTC

The time has come to win the “Battle of Hormuz” and ensure freedom of navigation
President Donald Trump is right when he declared that the “ceasefire” order with Iran failed, and that the top priority now is to force Iran to permanently open the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States should use every necessary measure to secure freedom of navigation, while diplomacy is only an additional option. Iran has proved its promises untrustworthy: after reaching a preliminary agreement, it continued to attack merchant vessels and announced that it would close the strait.
The main goal is not for the United States to control or charge fees, but to ensure that international commercial ships can travel safely in international waters, with no country granted a monopoly or imposed tolls.
Iran claims it has the right to control the Strait of Hormuz, but the United States and its allies argue that this is a vital international shipping lane, where more than 20% of the world’s oil is transported. A blockade of Hormuz could seriously affect the global economy.
The United States’ blockade of Iranian ports and its continued airstrikes are part of a pressure strategy, but Washington should not turn the role of protecting freedom of navigation into a practice of charging tolls.
Finally, the United States should increase military pressure, strike key targets of the Iranian authorities, and make it clear to Tehran that good faith can only be demonstrated through action: opening the Strait of Hormuz for the long term before any further negotiations.
#Pada_Research