BullRun🐂

On March 17, 2025, Ki Young Ju, CEO of blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, made a striking declaration on X (formerly Twitter):

“#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”

This statement, backed by on-chain metrics and market data, has sent shockwaves through the crypto space. With Bitcoin hovering around $95,000–$100,000, down from its $108,268 all-time high in December 2024, the question on everyone’s mind is: Is the bull run truly over, or is this just another shakeout before a bigger move? 🤔

🔎 The Basis of Ki Young Ju’s Claim

Ki Young Ju’s prediction isn’t just speculation—it’s based on on-chain analytics and historical patterns. Here are the key factors he highlights:
📉 1. Bearish Signals from MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL

These key on-chain indicators track whether Bitcoin holders are in profit or loss:

MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value): Suggests the market may be overextended.
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio): Shows that profits from previous transactions are declining, meaning fewer holders are selling at a gain.
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): Indicates a shift toward bearish territory, which historically signals a cooling market.

CryptoQuant’s internal models—using a 365-day moving average—suggest Bitcoin has reached a cycle turning point.

💸 2. Liquidity is Drying Up

New money entering the market appears to be slowing down. Fresh capital inflows are critical for sustaining price momentum, and Ki Young Ju notes that this demand is waning—a warning sign that the bull cycle might be losing steam.
🐋 3. Whale Behavior is Shifting
Large Bitcoin holders (whales) are starting to sell at lower prices, suggesting they might be positioning for a longer consolidation or downtrend.

This aligns with CryptoQuant’s January 2025 analysis, which predicted a Q1–Q2 2025 peak based on the fact that 36% of Bitcoin’s market cap in Q4 2024 consisted of recently traded coins—a typical sign of a maturing cycle.

📊 Market Reaction & Key Developments

As of March 18, 2025, Bitcoin is testing key support levels between $93,000–$95,000, following a 12–15% correction from its all-time high. The reaction to Ju’s statement has been intense, with crypto influencers and traders on X echoing bearish sentiment:

💬 @anneLee_Cool: “Brace for a 6–12 month winter. I don’t see demand picking up anytime soon.”

💬 @AZCoinNews : “CryptoQuant’s metrics haven’t been wrong before… maybe it’s time to take profits.”

Meanwhile, macro conditions aren’t helping. The U.S. Federal Reserve just announced a 25-basis-point rate cut on March 18, but also reduced the expected 2025 rate cuts from four to just two. This move spooked risk assets, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin could struggle for upside momentum in the coming months.

🔥 The Counterpoint: Why the Bull Cycle May NOT Be Over

Despite Ju’s prediction, not everyone agrees. Here’s why some analysts still believe Bitcoin has more room to run:

⏳ 1. Historical Cycle Timing Suggests More Upside

Bitcoin halvings have historically led to bull peaks 12–18 months later. Since the April 2024 halving, that puts the expected top between April and October 2025—meaning we could still be mid-cycle, not at the end.
📈 2. MVRV Z-Score Shows More Growth Potential

The MVRV Z-Score, which measures Bitcoin’s valuation relative to its historical norms, hit 2.7 at Bitcoin’s $108K peak—far below the 3.5+ levels seen at previous cycle tops. This suggests Bitcoin could still reach $120,000+ before hitting its true peak.
🤷‍♂️ 3. Retail Euphoria Hasn’t Kicked In Yet

Historically, Bitcoin’s biggest bull runs end in retail mania—when everyday investors flood in. Ki Young Ju himself noted in 2024 that this "retail bubble" hasn’t formed yet. Google Trends data and exchange sign-ups remain moderate, suggesting we haven’t reached that blow-off top phase typical of past cycles.
💰 4. Big Players Still See Higher Targets

Investment firms like ARK Invest and IntoTheBlock still forecast a mid-2025 peak with targets between $200,000–$243,000. They argue that Bitcoin’s current dip is just a healthy breather before another leg up.

🛣️ What’s Next? Key Levels & Market Outlook
Ju’s 6–12 month sideways/bearish prediction suggests Bitcoin could trade between $80,000–$100,000 for most of late 2025/early 2026. If Bitcoin loses key support at $93,000, we might see a dip toward $80K or lower.

However, it’s important to note that Ju’s stance has shifted before:

🔄 In February 2025, he suggested this could be Bitcoin’s longest bull run, extending into April or beyond—showing that market conditions can change quickly.

📌 Final Thoughts: Is This the End or Just a Pause?

Right now, the market hangs in the balance:

✅ Bearish signals (liquidity drying up, whale selling, macro uncertainty) suggest a slowdown.

✅ Bullish factors (historical cycle timing, MVRV data, lack of retail FOMO) suggest upside remains.

The $93,000–$95,000 zone will be critical—if Bitcoin bounces here, we could see a push to new highs. If it breaks below, a prolonged correction may be on the horizon.

📊 Key Factors to Watch:

👀 ETF inflows/outflows—Will institutional demand return?

👀 Macro trends—Will the Fed reverse course on rates?

👀 Whale accumulation—Are big players buying or selling?

For now, $BTC investors should stay cautious, manage risk, and avoid panic selling. Whether this is the end or just a pause, the next few weeks will be crucial in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory.

What do you think? Is the bull run over, or do we have one last rally left? Drop your thoughts below! 👇🚀🔥

#bitcoin #crypto #BullRunAhead #BTCNextATH #BullRun🐂

Analysts Suggest Bitcoin May Be Moving Away from Its Traditional Cycle – What Does This Mean for Investors?
Until now, every Bitcoin bull cycle followed a four-year pattern, driven by BTC halving events. Historically, this mechanism of reducing supply triggered a sharp price surge, typically peaking around 18 months after each halving.
However, analysts are now observing a shift – the current bull market does not fully align with past cycles. Could this be the start of Bitcoin’s first extended bull cycle? And what does it mean for traders and investors?
Bitcoin's Shift Away from the 4-Year Cycle – What's Causing It?

📌 Two key factors indicate a deviation from the classic cycle:

✅ 1. Delayed Altseason – In previous cycles, altcoins peaked in the first quarter following a Bitcoin halving. This time, the altcoin season has been delayed, suggesting that the market may not follow historical patterns precisely.
✅ 2. Bitcoin’s Early Start – BTC’s price has been rising faster than expected, which could signal a shift in its cycle. Analysts now speculate that the traditional 4-year model may no longer apply.
💬 Some traders believe the 4-year cycle is dead. One pointed out that stock markets do not follow fixed cycles, and Bitcoin could be heading in the same direction. If this theory holds, we may be witnessing Bitcoin’s first prolonged bull market.
Is It Safe to Stay Bullish?
🚀 One crypto analyst encourages the community to remain optimistic and not blindly rely on old models.
📉 The market’s fear index has dropped to levels not seen since October 2022, just before Bitcoin bottomed out and surged into a bull run.

📊 If history repeats itself, BTC could soon enter another phase of aggressive growth. But the question remains: Is the market evolving to the point where new trading strategies are needed?

#bitcoin , #BTC , #crypto , #CryptoNewss , #BullRun🐂

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,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“

We have just witnessed a spectacular breakout from Bitcoin as its value has officially returned to $101,000! This is a strong signal that BTC is on the path to continue its extraordinary growth, affirming its leading position in the cryptocurrency market.

🔥 Why is this event important?
Positive market sentiment: The recovery and surpassing of the $101K mark helps eliminate previous concerns about the potential decline of the market. The feeling of confidence in cryptocurrency is growing stronger.

Why do I say the bullrun is not over yet...?
Because if we refer to the previous 4-year cycle, we are still on the path of the previous 2 bullrun cycles. Namely the 2017 bullrun and the 2021 bullrun.
Please pay attention to the image for your analysis. We are currently in the best buying phase for the last time before the decline in the middle of the year.
First image 01/01/2017 - 31/01/2017

Second image 01/01/2021 - 31/01/2021

Please compare with the third image 01/01/2025 - 31/01/2025