降息期待

【Market News】
Dear all, the U.S. job market has weakened again. The ADP non-farm payrolls for November released yesterday unexpectedly dropped significantly—market expectations were for an addition of 40,000, but instead, there were layoffs of 32,000, marking the largest decline in two and a half years. Small businesses were hit the hardest, laying off 120,000 people in one go; larger companies with over 50 employees added 90,000 jobs. Education, healthcare, and leisure hotels are still hiring, but professional services and manufacturing continue to contract. Manufacturing managers are generally worried about the uncertainties brought by tariffs, finding it even harder to cope than during the pandemic, which may lead to a wave of layoffs next year. #小非农ADP数据已公布

This “non-farm” report is an important reference ahead of Powell's meeting next week, and combined with last Friday's PCE data, the market is almost betting on a rate cut in December. Wall Street has also remarked: if the Federal Reserve does not ease, the market may face a crash.

In terms of sectors, Microsoft is under pressure due to rumors of lowering AI software sales targets (though this has been clarified), affecting Nvidia and other AI-related stocks. Agencies remind us to pay attention to the debts large companies have taken on to build data centers; AI is no longer blindly pursued, beginning to differentiate winners from losers.

In summary: the November ADP data is alarming, and if the Fed references this data, a rate cut in December is almost certain. #降息期待

💰 The Era of Huge Losses for the Federal Reserve Ends After Three Years! Is This a Major Positive for the Cryptocurrency Market?

It has been three years, and the Federal Reserve has finally ended its continuous losses! It has returned to profitability since early November, and the scale of deferred assets has decreased for the first time. The key reason is the interest rate cuts—rates have dropped from a peak of 5.5% to 3.75-4%, significantly reducing banks' interest expenses on reserves.

This is not only a change in accounting items but also an important signal of a shift in monetary policy:
✅ Reduced operational pressure on the Federal Reserve
✅ Further opening of interest rate cut space
✅ Continued improvement in the global liquidity environment

For the cryptocurrency market, this means:
🔥 A rebound in traditional funds' risk appetite
🔥 Market liquidity is supported
🔥 A more favorable macro environment for crypto assets

Historical experience shows that interest rate cut cycles are often a good period for the performance of risk assets. Although the Federal Reserve will not directly purchase cryptocurrencies, a loose monetary environment creates favorable conditions for the entire crypto market.

#美联储降息周期 #宏观经济 #降息期待 #加密市场 #流动性分析

The probability of Japan raising interest rates has soared to over 60%! Brothers, are you panicking?

In a nutshell, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda just “coughed lightly”: discussions on interest rate hikes will take place in December — the global market immediately exploded.

In just two weeks, the probability of an interest rate hike jumped from 30% → 60% → 80%, and capital was directly awakened from its semi-sleeping state.

Why is the whole world afraid of Japan raising interest rates?

Because Japan is the cheap funding faucet for the global market.

Over the past decade, a large amount of international capital has borrowed yen at close to 0% interest rates, leveraging into U.S. stocks, gold, bonds, and even cryptocurrencies.

This is called: Yen Carry Trade.

Once Japan really raises interest rates, these massive leveraged positions will have to do two things:

① Sell assets (including BTC, ETH, U.S. stocks)

② Exchange back to yen to repay debts

This will trigger a chain reaction; history has proven this before — the destructive power is immense.

The market has already started to panic in advance:

Japan's two-year government bond yield has surged to a new high since 2008

The yen against the dollar has directly risen to 155.4

Global arbitrage positions are beginning to withdraw early

But the most “laughable” part is:

Japan is hinting at raising interest rates while also planning to issue 63 trillion yen in government bonds to stimulate the economy.

On one foot, it hits the brakes, and on the other, it steps on the gas; the market is left in a daze.

Adding insult to injury:

On the U.S. side, expectations for interest rate cuts in December are continuously rising.

If the U.S. cuts rates and Japan raises rates on the same day?

That would be the doomsday liquidation of the Carry Trade —

Yen skyrockets, assets plummet, and liquidity tears apart.

Are many people still acting like nothing has happened?

Really, the closer we get to this stage, the less we should move our positions.

Those who are unstable should reduce positions first, and the aggressive should lower leverage first; don’t bet before the trend has formed.

If you haven’t taken action yet, it’s not too late to move now.

If you want to stabilize the situation, scan the code to join the chat room, we will keep an eye on the data, catch the rhythm, and not be the last one buried.

#日本加息 #降息期待 #加密市场风暴

Japan's interest rate hike probability exceeds 60%! Are you worried?

A statement from the Governor of the Bank of Japan directly caused the global market to explode! A gentle mention of considering an interest rate hike in December caused the probability of a hike to soar from 30% to 80% within two weeks, putting global capital on high alert.

Why so intense?
Japan is the global faucet of cheap funds! In the past, countless international capitals borrowed nearly zero-interest yen to speculate on U.S. stocks and buy Bitcoin worldwide.
Now that Japan is looking to raise interest rates, they will have to sell assets and convert back to yen to pay off debts, triggering a chain reaction.

The yield on Japan's two-year government bonds has reached a new high since 2008, and the yen has surged to 155.4 against the dollar, spreading panic in the market.

Moreover, while Japan calls for rate hikes, it plans to issue 63 trillion yen in government bonds for economic stimulus, which is a contradictory move that has completely confused the market.

As expectations for a rate cut in December rise, if the Bank of Japan raises rates at the same time, the yen is bound to rebound strongly, leading to a doomsday settlement for global arbitrage trading...

If you haven't taken action yet, it's still not too late! Click → 扫码进聊天室, top-level strategies will help you double your returns!

#日本加息 #降息期待

$ETH $BNB $币安人生
Content mining tutorial, come into the live room and chat 🐶

#幣安人生 #以太升級 #降息期待

$ETH $BNB $DOGE Content mining tutorial, come into the live room to chat 🐶
#幣安人生 #以太升級 #降息期待

The market is highly likely to enter a honeymoon period next! Two phases + three major certainty opportunities, clarify in advance～

The subsequent market will basically be divided into two waves: the first wave from this week to December 10, and the second wave from December 10 to Christmas. Overall, it is highly likely to rise first and then fall, so grasping the rhythm is crucial～

Three clear opportunity points provide support, ensuring certainty:
1️⃣ The U.S. Treasury's TGA account replenishment is expected to release about $300 billion in liquidity in the next 3-6 weeks, providing support on the funding side;
2️⃣ The expectation of a rate cut on December 10 is high, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December on Polymarket has risen to 87%. The market is already anticipating this good news in advance;
3️⃣ On December 1, the Federal Reserve will halt tapering, and they mentioned plans for a new round of Treasury purchases in January to help alleviate market pressure, providing a policy support.

Additionally, recent geopolitical and external markets have stabilized, making this window period indeed worth looking forward to～ However, be aware that after the rate cut on December 10 until Christmas, it has historically been a phase of tighter market liquidity, and the market is highly likely to reverse then. It will probably be a good time to take profits, so don’t be greedy～
#行情推演 #降息期待

According to predictions from Polymarket, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has soared to 85%.
We have reached a time for another interest rate cut. The previous two rate cuts were seen as bets that were digested in advance, resulting in a certain degree of increase. The data from December 3rd and 4th will play a crucial role in determining the subsequent direction, acting as a vanguard. If there is once again a need to cut rates due to an overall poor environment, along with the currently precarious geopolitical situation, we may face another downward movement. #降息期待

Two months, from 3000U to over two hundred thousand, it looks like a story, but in fact, it's the awakening of a person who has persevered through it.

On the day I first met him, he looked completely defeated.
3000U was his last chip, and the previous loss of 40,000 made him afraid to even look at the K-line.
He said something that I will remember: "Uncle, if I don't make it this time, I might quit."

At that moment, I was calmer than he was.
Many people fall into the same trap, anxious, confused, wanting to turn things around overnight.

My first requirement for him was to survive.
No need for aggressive trades, no need to gamble on direction, just use the minimum effort to gain some breathing space.

We started testing the waters from 300U.
Each time only moving 30U, with 100 times leverage.
When the market is favorable, a 1% fluctuation would double it;
When the market is unfavorable, it only falls a little, not draining his spirit.

He followed my guidance and gradually stabilized.
If he incurred a loss, he would cut it off, not hold on.
The moment the stop-loss point lights up, he wouldn't hesitate, leaving first and discussing later.
If he faced several consecutive losses, he would shut down the computer and avoid the chaotic rhythm.

The profit part is even more critical.
Every time he accumulated to 3000U, he would take half and walk away.
It's not that he doesn't dare to trade, but he knows that the numbers in the account are just floating.
What he takes into his hands won't evaporate in the next fluctuation.

His position never exceeded 10%.
A light position made him unafraid of fluctuations, unafraid of being washed out, unafraid of sudden big bearish lines.
With a steady mind, his hands wouldn't shake, and he could clearly see the charts.

Gradually, he stopped chasing the market.
He began to pick directions, wait for rhythms, and seize trends.
He did very little each day, but it became smoother and smoother.
His account grew from three thousand, layer by layer, up to over two hundred thousand.

Many people think the impressive part is the speed of doubling.
But I care more about how he became able to "live".
Contracts are not about being aggressive, but about whether you can hold on until the market gives you an opportunity.
Those who can last to the end are always the ones who know when to stop and when to brake.

This is his way of turning things around.
Clumsy, yet effective; slow, but steady.

True experts never show off; they rely on discipline and execution. Follow me, together we can turn around in this market, reap profits, and recover losses. Slow is fast; living longer allows you to smile in the end.

#降息期待 #美联储何时降息？ #特朗普加密新政
$BANANAS31 $MON $KAS

Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations are soaring! There is an 84.7% probability of action in December, and the cryptocurrency market is in a state of fluctuation waiting for a surge.

High-ranking officials from the Federal Reserve have consistently voiced their support for rate cuts: Governor Milan bluntly stated that "inflation is no longer a problem," and the current high-interest rates are slowing down the economy, calling for a quick return to neutral levels; San Francisco Fed President Daly also supports a rate cut in December, concerned about a sudden weakening in the job market.

Data also supports the case for a rate cut: the U.S. core PPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year in September, and retail sales only rose by 0.2% month-on-month, both below market expectations, confirming a cooling demand in the economy.

The market reacted positively: CME data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December surged to 84.7%, the U.S. stock market saw a V-shaped rebound (Dow Jones up 1.43%), Apple’s stock price hit a record high, and gold also saw a significant increase. Institutions like Goldman Sachs are betting on a rate cut in December, and although CITIC Securities warns that uncertainties remain, expectations for a rate cut have fully heated up.

In contrast, the cryptocurrency market is currently in a state of fluctuation, but under the expectation of global easing, it is likely to follow the rhythm of the U.S. stock market and gold, making the rebound opportunity worth looking forward to.

#加密市场反弹 $BTC #降息期待
$ETH
$BNB

Listen to Brother Gan's words, wealth will come rolling in
#降息期待
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL

【Shocking Revelation! The true driving force behind this round of soaring prices is actually it? 🤯】

Last night at 22:00, the Middle Eastern little tyrant suddenly took action! Israel announced its first interest rate cut of 25 basis points since January 2024! 💥

Did you think only the Federal Reserve could stir the market? Wrong! The financial influence of this country has been severely underestimated👇

🔥【Israel's Hidden Strength】
✅ About 70% of wealth is controlled by Israeli-Americans
✅ Holds 21 seats among the top 40 wealthiest Americans
✅ 50% of Wall Street elites are of Israeli descent
✅ Top investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers were founded by Israelis
✅ Core figures of tech giants like Google, Intel, and Oracle all come from Israel

💡【Deeper Influence】
Most Federal Reserve chairs after 1970 are of Israeli descent
Wall Street capital flows are deeply influenced by Israeli consortiums
The global tech industry is inseparably linked with Israeli capital

🎯【Operational Suggestions】
1️⃣ Pay attention to Middle Eastern policy trends
2️⃣ Keep a close eye on global liquidity changes
3️⃣ Seize asset allocation opportunities during interest rate cut cycles

Remember: The market always has unseen hands pushing it! Learn to analyze from multiple dimensions to seize opportunities 🚀

(Data for reference only, investment requires caution)

💝 Think it's useful? Like and follow to stay on track～

#BTC #加密市场回调 #降息期待 #宏观分析

Follow Brother Gan for meat to eat, steady and reliable😍
#利好消息 #降息期待

The Federal Reserve is currently in a particularly sensitive position, with data, market sentiment, and internal debates all piling up, and no one dares to confidently predict the next steps.

Over the past year, they have consistently emphasized "making decisions based on data"; however, more pronounced internal divisions have recently emerged, indicating that the direction is not as clear as before.

The key person this time is Powell.

His influence has increased, and he may choose a method similar to "insurance-style rate cuts": lowering rates just once to hedge against the sudden weakening of the labor market, while simultaneously telling the market "don't overthink it, this doesn't mean I will start a series of rate cuts."

This approach is quite similar to the "mid-cycle adjustment" of 2019, which is a fine-tuning, not a shift.

Looking back over the past year, the Federal Reserve's focus has clearly been shifting.
In the second half of 2024, they will primarily monitor whether inflation continues to decline;
By 2025, the focus will shift to the impacts of weakening employment, tax increases, and tariffs.

It has a typical late-cycle flavor: policies are already tight, but the parts of inflation that cannot bear the burden are still dragging behind.

Internal disputes are also becoming more public. Hawks fear sticky inflation, while doves worry about a hard landing for the economy. Monthly CPI and monthly non-farm payroll data no longer provide clear direction.

Powell needs to find a balance in the middle; he cannot be too loose, nor does he want the market to mistakenly think he is being forced to pivot dovishly.

If he cuts rates this time but emphasizes "just once for now," the market will interpret it as a "prickly rate cut": providing short-term relief, but potentially creating upward pressure on long-term rates.

The Federal Reserve is doing this to gain observation time, especially regarding the subsequent performance of wages and inflation expectations.

This action will also influence global central banks. If the Federal Reserve cautiously cuts rates and does not provide forward guidance, the flexibility of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will be constrained.

Now is a typical data validation phase for the Federal Reserve, with no established direction and internal disagreements. The rate cut itself is not the main focus; the signal of "cutting once and not continuing" is what the market needs to monitor closely.

#降息期待 #鲍威尔 #美国非农数据超预期 $ARC $YALA $PARTI

Latest news: According to Barclays Bank, Federal Reserve Chairman #鲍威尔 may cut interest rates in December.
#降息期待

$pippin 100u goes in, 1000u comes out, ten times the space secured😁🚀

Pippin's trend today has been very strong, being the most eye-catching among the strong intraday altcoins. Sister Min has observed that the market trend has been a step-by-step rise, with the project team accumulating and pushing up. This obvious method shouldn't be missed by everyone, right??

Additionally, its on-chain funds have consistently been flowing in positively, making the accumulation very evident. Therefore, today I decisively informed fans to enter long positions, comfortably entering at 100, with a profit-taking exit at 1000u. Sister Min just wants to ask, who's left??

The market sentiment is clearly laid out, those who want to follow can come directly to the chat room!!
$SOL $TNSR #降息期待 #美联储何时降息？

Interest rate cuts landing → $BTC breaks 120,000, $ETH rushes to 5,000, DAT + stablecoins surge, extreme greed?

US long-term shutdown + Federal Reserve turns hawkish → interest rate cut expectations collapse
The largest forced liquidation in history → deeply evaporating 60%, BTC/ETH flash crash 25-35%

ETF/DAT inflows stagnate, mNAV breaks 1

Conclusion: The interest rate cut bull market is brutally stifled by high interest rates + liquidity crisis.

Shutdown ends + December FOMC reintroduces interest rate cuts

Now: survive first, then tell the story.


#降息期待

$ETH
From a daily perspective, ETH seems to have dropped significantly, with a rapid decline. However, switching to the 4-hour candlestick chart reveals many small rebounds around the 3000-3300 range. This is actually a kind of wide fluctuation area. If ETH rebounds to around 3300, unless there's a favorable stimulus, the return time will be very long. The micro-strategy companies will definitely rescue themselves in some way. Whether the market has fully priced in the expectations of a rate cut in December is still unknown.

The testimonies of those who experienced the 317 519 incident.
wb ten thousand fans kol
Follow me teach you more
Share more historical events and personal thoughts 🤔
If you have doubts about your positions and whether to cut losses, I will open a new post to analyze it for you, just follow me.
I hope to accompany you to slowly become rich.

#降息期待
#ETH走势分析
$ETH

"Finally, the interest rate will be cut! Are good days coming?"

Just now, Powell finally said that the time for policy adjustment has come, and what is rare is that he is no longer playing Tai Chi as before, but always taking a dovish tone. There is a high probability that interest rates will be cut in September! Suddenly, Master Bao looks much more handsome!

Here are some key points of the speech - the "strongest voice" for interest rate cuts

1. Interest rate guidance: The time for policy adjustment has come, and the direction of policy is clear. The timing and pace of interest rate cuts will depend on the balance of data, prospects and risks.

2. Inflation outlook: Confidence in the return of inflation to 2% has increased.

3. Job market: The labor market seems unlikely to be a source of rising inflationary pressure in the short term; further cooling of the labor market is not sought or welcomed.

4. Risk balance: The upside risk of inflation has weakened, and the downside risk of employment is also increasing.

5. Market impact: The market regards Powell's remarks as "the strongest signal of interest rate cuts so far." Spot gold's 15-minute short-term volatility reached $20, and the U.S. dollar index DXY fell below 101.

Market impact:
Market sentiment has clearly risen, $BTC broke 62,000, and U.S. stocks opened higher. However, I would like to remind everyone that this does not mean that the water in the market will rise immediately, this is just an expected change. In particular, we must be wary of the dealer taking advantage of the high sentiment of the whole market, so it is not recommended that you directly use large leverage to chase high prices.

#杰克逊霍尔年会 #降息期待 #美联储何时降息？