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老郭来财

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Frequent Trader
11.4 Months
公众号老郭来財K,保持理性,保持冷静。laoguo飞机118
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The classic line from "The Ballad of the Cold Kiln": "Those with aspirations that reach the sky cannot achieve their goals without luck!" Upon reflection, this resonates with our experiences in the cryptocurrency space. I believe that every friend who enters the cryptocurrency world does so with the intention of not incurring losses. Everyone dives into this because they see the enormous opportunities hidden behind the significant price fluctuations in the crypto market. However, to truly earn substantial profits in this ever-changing crypto landscape, there is only one reliable path: to follow the trend. When the favorable trend emerges, we must have the courage to enter boldly; and during periods of market fluctuations, we might as well return to our daily lives, eat well, sleep soundly, and work diligently. After all, trading is not everything in life, and opportunities do not always present themselves. We just need to decisively buy when the right moment arrives, patiently hold our positions, and then sell calmly when the time is right, and thus we can succeed. #BTC走势分析
The classic line from "The Ballad of the Cold Kiln": "Those with aspirations that reach the sky cannot achieve their goals without luck!" Upon reflection, this resonates with our experiences in the cryptocurrency space.

I believe that every friend who enters the cryptocurrency world does so with the intention of not incurring losses. Everyone dives into this because they see the enormous opportunities hidden behind the significant price fluctuations in the crypto market.

However, to truly earn substantial profits in this ever-changing crypto landscape, there is only one reliable path: to follow the trend. When the favorable trend emerges, we must have the courage to enter boldly; and during periods of market fluctuations, we might as well return to our daily lives, eat well, sleep soundly, and work diligently. After all, trading is not everything in life, and opportunities do not always present themselves.

We just need to decisively buy when the right moment arrives, patiently hold our positions, and then sell calmly when the time is right, and thus we can succeed.
#BTC走势分析
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From Gym to Trading Desk: The Truth of 'Long-Termism' I RealizedRecently, I've switched gyms, and a profound feeling emerged: my preferences for environments have changed. I used to be obsessed with large spaces and fancy equipment, but now I'm only attracted to simple power racks, barbells, and enough training platforms. Behind this change is the iteration of my training methods. I suddenly realized that this path is remarkably similar to my journey from a trading novice to establishing my own system. 1. Appearance and Essence: Why is most effort 'ineffective'? In the gym, the truth of business is: complex equipment creates a 'professional' illusion, making you feel dependent on trainers. However, what is truly effective—compound movements, progressive overload, and continuous self-breakthroughs—are often painful and monotonous, which the commercial environment is unwilling to promote. As a result, many people train for years and still have the same physique.

From Gym to Trading Desk: The Truth of 'Long-Termism' I Realized

Recently, I've switched gyms, and a profound feeling emerged: my preferences for environments have changed. I used to be obsessed with large spaces and fancy equipment, but now I'm only attracted to simple power racks, barbells, and enough training platforms.
Behind this change is the iteration of my training methods. I suddenly realized that this path is remarkably similar to my journey from a trading novice to establishing my own system.
1. Appearance and Essence: Why is most effort 'ineffective'?
In the gym, the truth of business is: complex equipment creates a 'professional' illusion, making you feel dependent on trainers. However, what is truly effective—compound movements, progressive overload, and continuous self-breakthroughs—are often painful and monotonous, which the commercial environment is unwilling to promote. As a result, many people train for years and still have the same physique.
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Bearish
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As long as there are delicacies, we can eat our fill when served at the table! #btc
As long as there are delicacies, we can eat our fill when served at the table! #btc
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Bearish
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Two cakes: Following the boss down, the first upper pressure is at 2915, if it can't hold there is still space to go down, the lower support comes at 2795-2730. If it can't hold 2680-2610, it's no problem to take another shot. To stabilize and reverse, it must stand back at 2990. #eth
Two cakes: Following the boss down, the first upper pressure is at 2915, if it can't hold there is still space to go down, the lower support comes at 2795-2730. If it can't hold 2680-2610, it's no problem to take another shot. To stabilize and reverse, it must stand back at 2990. #eth
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Bearish
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Master Brother: The upward test POC was unsuccessful, and last week's rapid test at 92500 is a very clear bearish signal 📉. This was also confirmed in the morning. The support below is at 86300. If it cannot hold, it will drop to 85600 and then 83500. The resistance above is first at 88400 and then 89400. To return to an upward trend, it must stand back above 94000. #btc
Master Brother: The upward test POC was unsuccessful, and last week's rapid test at 92500 is a very clear bearish signal 📉. This was also confirmed in the morning. The support below is at 86300. If it cannot hold, it will drop to 85600 and then 83500. The resistance above is first at 88400 and then 89400. To return to an upward trend, it must stand back above 94000. #btc
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Bearish
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The morning phone call woke me up, I thought something was wrong, and then I saw, oh, it turns out it's time to take off! #btc
The morning phone call woke me up, I thought something was wrong, and then I saw, oh, it turns out it's time to take off! #btc
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Thunder in Silence: The 'liquidity black hole' is the real reason for your lossesHave you ever experienced this scenario? The market is deadlocked and stagnant for half a day, just when you are most relaxed and feeling the most bored, the market suddenly surges or crashes without warning, wiping out your stop-loss only to instantly return to calm. This is not a deliberate 'hunt' by the main players, but rather a colder market mechanism at work — the liquidity black hole. 1. What is a 'liquidity black hole'? In simple terms: during periods of extremely thin market depth, due to a severe lack of buy and sell orders, even a small transaction can trigger violent and rapid price fluctuations, just as a black hole in the universe absorbs light and devours market prices.

Thunder in Silence: The 'liquidity black hole' is the real reason for your losses

Have you ever experienced this scenario? The market is deadlocked and stagnant for half a day, just when you are most relaxed and feeling the most bored, the market suddenly surges or crashes without warning, wiping out your stop-loss only to instantly return to calm.
This is not a deliberate 'hunt' by the main players, but rather a colder market mechanism at work — the liquidity black hole.
1. What is a 'liquidity black hole'?
In simple terms: during periods of extremely thin market depth, due to a severe lack of buy and sell orders, even a small transaction can trigger violent and rapid price fluctuations, just as a black hole in the universe absorbs light and devours market prices.
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Bullish
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Er Bing: Maintaining operation within an upward channel, with upper pressure at 3060. The annual VWAP still presents some pressure; only after a breakthrough can we continue to look up at 3130 and 3210. However, it is important to note that after the breakthrough at 2970, it came down to 2915. Once stabilized, it still shows an upward trend, but particular attention is needed for the breakthrough below at the 2850 position and 2730. #eth
Er Bing: Maintaining operation within an upward channel, with upper pressure at 3060. The annual VWAP still presents some pressure; only after a breakthrough can we continue to look up at 3130 and 3210. However, it is important to note that after the breakthrough at 2970, it came down to 2915. Once stabilized, it still shows an upward trend, but particular attention is needed for the breakthrough below at the 2850 position and 2730. #eth
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Bullish
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Big pancake: Yesterday was Thanksgiving, the US stock market was closed, today is Black Friday with half a trading day, and liquidity is relatively low. What needs to be focused on is that the funding rates remain low, seemingly indicating a bottoming pattern, while open interest continues to rise, and the number of positions held continues to decrease, indicating a relatively good upward trend. Therefore, the key level to watch above is 92200. After breaking through, we can continue to see levels at 96400 and 98000. If a false breakout occurs upwards, the key levels to watch below are first at 89700 and 88700. If 88700 cannot hold, we will see levels at 85600 and 84600. #btc
Big pancake: Yesterday was Thanksgiving, the US stock market was closed, today is Black Friday with half a trading day, and liquidity is relatively low. What needs to be focused on is that the funding rates remain low, seemingly indicating a bottoming pattern, while open interest continues to rise, and the number of positions held continues to decrease, indicating a relatively good upward trend. Therefore, the key level to watch above is 92200. After breaking through, we can continue to see levels at 96400 and 98000. If a false breakout occurs upwards, the key levels to watch below are first at 89700 and 88700. If 88700 cannot hold, we will see levels at 85600 and 84600. #btc
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The Federal Reserve's Ultimate Game: Is a "Hawkish Rate Cut" About to Unfold?Core Insights Extracted The Federal Reserve is about to face key decisions filled with contradictions: their statements may lean hawkish, but actions may turn dovish. In the context of the reliability of data being questioned after the government shutdown, the market is trying to decipher a fundamental issue: who truly holds the steering wheel of monetary policy? The Fog of Market Decisions 1. The Crisis of Trust in Data: The reliability of economic data (especially the missing October non-farm payroll report) after the government shutdown is in doubt, posing a significant challenge to the Federal Reserve's decisions in December. Despite the noise, overall, the job market has not collapsed, but it is certainly not strong.

The Federal Reserve's Ultimate Game: Is a "Hawkish Rate Cut" About to Unfold?

Core Insights Extracted
The Federal Reserve is about to face key decisions filled with contradictions: their statements may lean hawkish, but actions may turn dovish. In the context of the reliability of data being questioned after the government shutdown, the market is trying to decipher a fundamental issue: who truly holds the steering wheel of monetary policy?
The Fog of Market Decisions
1. The Crisis of Trust in Data: The reliability of economic data (especially the missing October non-farm payroll report) after the government shutdown is in doubt, posing a significant challenge to the Federal Reserve's decisions in December. Despite the noise, overall, the job market has not collapsed, but it is certainly not strong.
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In the morning, I said not to chase, not to chase. It's hard to feel good after coming down, right? This time, setting a target before entering the market is so comfortable, isn't it? #btc #ETH
In the morning, I said not to chase, not to chase. It's hard to feel good after coming down, right? This time, setting a target before entering the market is so comfortable, isn't it? #btc #ETH
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Is the economy all supported by AI? The Federal Reserve Beige Book reveals America's 'Ice and Fire'Hello everyone. The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book and economic data depict a clear picture of the U.S. economy being 'a tale of two cities' — AI investment is booming, while the traditional economy feels the chill. 1. Bone-chilling cold: The 'cold reality' of manufacturing and consumption First, a key piece of data has raised the alarm: the Chicago PMI plummeted to 36.3 in November, marking a new low since May of this year. How bad is this number? Far below the 50 threshold, indicating that manufacturing is in a 'severe recession'** range. Economic activity is significantly shrinking, exerting comprehensive pressure on employment, new orders, and supply chain confidence.

Is the economy all supported by AI? The Federal Reserve Beige Book reveals America's 'Ice and Fire'

Hello everyone. The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book and economic data depict a clear picture of the U.S. economy being 'a tale of two cities' — AI investment is booming, while the traditional economy feels the chill.
1. Bone-chilling cold: The 'cold reality' of manufacturing and consumption
First, a key piece of data has raised the alarm: the Chicago PMI plummeted to 36.3 in November, marking a new low since May of this year.
How bad is this number?
Far below the 50 threshold, indicating that manufacturing is in a 'severe recession'** range.
Economic activity is significantly shrinking, exerting comprehensive pressure on employment, new orders, and supply chain confidence.
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Recently received many comments, feel free to come in and chat.
Recently received many comments, feel free to come in and chat.
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Reflecting on the convergence of the past few days, the more it is like this, the more it tests true patience and judgment. Patiently wait for opportunities, wait for the formation, and accurately enter on the right side. You can stay still, but once you move, you must be very certain! #eth #BTC
Reflecting on the convergence of the past few days, the more it is like this, the more it tests true patience and judgment. Patiently wait for opportunities, wait for the formation, and accurately enter on the right side. You can stay still, but once you move, you must be very certain! #eth #BTC
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Can you trust the support line once drawn? Three steps to judge its effectiveness and say goodbye to ineffective bottom fishingMany people judge support merely by mechanically drawing a line on the chart, rushing in as soon as the price touches it, resulting in repeated losses. The key issue is: although it is support, the confirmation 'quality' is different, and the reliability varies greatly. 1. The 'three-level certification' of support effectiveness We can categorize the effectiveness of support from weak to strong into three levels: 1. Weak support (trap type): Testing fails, strong selling pressure Feature: A long upper shadow candlestick appears after the price touches support. This indicates that buying attempts are trying to push back, but the strength is weak and is quickly suppressed by selling.

Can you trust the support line once drawn? Three steps to judge its effectiveness and say goodbye to ineffective bottom fishing

Many people judge support merely by mechanically drawing a line on the chart, rushing in as soon as the price touches it, resulting in repeated losses.
The key issue is: although it is support, the confirmation 'quality' is different, and the reliability varies greatly.
1. The 'three-level certification' of support effectiveness
We can categorize the effectiveness of support from weak to strong into three levels:
1. Weak support (trap type): Testing fails, strong selling pressure
Feature: A long upper shadow candlestick appears after the price touches support. This indicates that buying attempts are trying to push back, but the strength is weak and is quickly suppressed by selling.
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Written afterwards, the big pie is updated, don't fomo, don't blindly chase. This does not yet represent a trend reversal. It has only broken through the first barrier! #btc
Written afterwards, the big pie is updated, don't fomo, don't blindly chase. This does not yet represent a trend reversal. It has only broken through the first barrier! #btc
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SOL: Down 139, hold on for another round, look up to 149, if unable to hold, go to 130, 121 to find the bottom. #solana
SOL: Down 139, hold on for another round, look up to 149, if unable to hold, go to 130, 121 to find the bottom. #solana
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Build Your Trading System in Five Steps: From Opening Confusion to Decisive Loss CuttingAre you confused when opening orders, hesitant when entering, and in pain when stopping losses? The root cause is that you lack a trading system that belongs to you. Today, use five steps to help you build a system that makes your trading no longer confusing. Step one: Identify your trading model Before starting, you must first answer a question: What kind of trader are you? Is it intraday short-term, all positions closed on the same day? Is it still a swing trend, can the base position be held overnight? Clarify your positioning, which is the foundation for building all systems. This determines the time frame and mindset for all your subsequent rules.

Build Your Trading System in Five Steps: From Opening Confusion to Decisive Loss Cutting

Are you confused when opening orders, hesitant when entering, and in pain when stopping losses? The root cause is that you lack a trading system that belongs to you.
Today, use five steps to help you build a system that makes your trading no longer confusing.
Step one: Identify your trading model
Before starting, you must first answer a question: What kind of trader are you?
Is it intraday short-term, all positions closed on the same day?
Is it still a swing trend, can the base position be held overnight?
Clarify your positioning, which is the foundation for building all systems. This determines the time frame and mindset for all your subsequent rules.
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According to predictions from Polymarket, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has soared to 85%. We have reached a time for another interest rate cut. The previous two rate cuts were seen as bets that were digested in advance, resulting in a certain degree of increase. The data from December 3rd and 4th will play a crucial role in determining the subsequent direction, acting as a vanguard. If there is once again a need to cut rates due to an overall poor environment, along with the currently precarious geopolitical situation, we may face another downward movement. #降息期待
According to predictions from Polymarket, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has soared to 85%.
We have reached a time for another interest rate cut. The previous two rate cuts were seen as bets that were digested in advance, resulting in a certain degree of increase. The data from December 3rd and 4th will play a crucial role in determining the subsequent direction, acting as a vanguard. If there is once again a need to cut rates due to an overall poor environment, along with the currently precarious geopolitical situation, we may face another downward movement. #降息期待
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When others are fearful, I am greedy? When the Bitcoin Sharpe ratio turns negativeA key indicator—the Sharpe ratio—has quietly turned negative recently. From a traditional financial perspective, this indicates that the attractiveness of the asset has dropped to a freezing point. However, in the world of Bitcoin, historical data tells us that this often serves as a strong signal for the arrival of a medium to long-term bottom. 1. What is the Sharpe ratio? Why is it critical when it turns negative? In simple terms, the Sharpe ratio measures the excess return you can achieve for each unit of risk you take. When it turns negative, it means that recently, the returns from holding Bitcoin cannot even compensate for its volatility risk, and market sentiment has dropped to a low point.

When others are fearful, I am greedy? When the Bitcoin Sharpe ratio turns negative

A key indicator—the Sharpe ratio—has quietly turned negative recently. From a traditional financial perspective, this indicates that the attractiveness of the asset has dropped to a freezing point. However, in the world of Bitcoin, historical data tells us that this often serves as a strong signal for the arrival of a medium to long-term bottom.
1. What is the Sharpe ratio? Why is it critical when it turns negative?
In simple terms, the Sharpe ratio measures the excess return you can achieve for each unit of risk you take. When it turns negative, it means that recently, the returns from holding Bitcoin cannot even compensate for its volatility risk, and market sentiment has dropped to a low point.
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