#BTC 
1. The Transitional Phase
The Transitional Phase consists of three sub-phases:
• 1a) The Pre-Halving "Danger Zone" (orange)
• 1b) The Final Pre-Halving Retrace (dark blue circle)
• 1c) The Post-Halving "Danger Zone" (purple)
As we'll see, all of these phases set-up the second major phase in the Halving Cycle: The Re-Accumulation Phase which we'll talk about later
1a) The Pre-Halving "Danger Zone" (orange)
In the Pre-Halving "Danger Zone" (orange), Bitcoin begins its Pre-Halving Retrace
In 2016, Bitcoin began its Pre-Halving Retrace 28 days before the Halving
In 2020, Bitcoin began its Pre-Halving Retrace 14 days before the Halving
And in 2024, Bitcoin began its Pre-Halving Retrace 30 days before the Halving, very similar to 2016
• 1b) The Final Pre-Halving Retrace (dark blue circle)
This Pre-Halving Retrace represents the final bargain-buying opportunity in the Pre-Halving period
In 2016, this retrace was -40% deep
In 2020, this retrace was -19% deep
And in 2024, this retrace was -18%, getting close to replicating the depth of the 2020 Pre-Halving Retrace
In fact, in this cycle Bitcoin produced two Pre-Halving Retraces: -18% in March and another -18% pullback this April
But the final Pre-Halving bargain-buying opportunity is now over
The Pre-Halving Retrace is over
And when the Pre-Halving Retrace phase ends, Bitcoin offers a better idea as to where the Re-Accumulation Range has developed
• 1c) The Post-Halving "Danger Zone" (purple)
The Pre-Halving "Danger Zone" (orange) informed where the Range High of the Re-Accumulation Range is
The Final Pre-Halving Retrace (dark blue circle) informed where the Range Low of the Re-Accumulation Range is
The Post-Halving "Danger Zone" (purple) may inform if Bitcoin produces any last downside volatility below the Range Low of the Re-Accumulation Range
In 2020, there was no noticeable Post-Halving "Danger Zone" (purple) because price never made new lows
However in 2016, Bitcoin produced a long downside wick in the 3 weeks that followed the Halving event
This downside wick went -11% below the Re-Accumulation Range Low before reversing to the upside
If this 2016 history were to repeat in 2024, Bitcoin could potentially produce one last flash downside wick over the next upcoming two weeks
The Pre-Halving "Danger Zone" (orange), Final Pre-Halving Retrace, and Post-Halving "Danger Zone" (purple) all set up the next major phase in the Bitcoin Halving Cycle...
2. The Re-Accumulation Phase
Now that the Pre-Halving Retrace has occurred, it has set up the very foundations of the Re-Accumulation Range
This Re-Accumulation Range tends to develop a few weeks before the Halving but the majority of this Re-Accumulation Range forms after the Halving
This Range concludes with a breakout from it several weeks after the Halving
The goal now is for Bitcoin to move sideways to catch a breather, for the market to cool-off after fantastic Pre-Halving price performance
In 2016 and 2020, the Re-Accumulation phase lasted 150-160 days
Therefore if history repeats, this current Re-Accumulation could last up to 150 days as well (i.e 5 months)
Many investors get shaken-out in this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment with lack of major results in their BTC investment in the immediate aftermath of the Halving
3. Parabolic Upside Phase
Once Bitcoin breaks out from the re-accumulation area breakout into the parabolic uptrend (green)
It is during this phase Bitcoin experiences accelerated growth into a parabolic uptrend
Historically, this phase has lasted just over a year (~385 days) however with a potential Accelerated Cycle occurring right now, this figure may get cut in half in this market cycle
$BTC #BitcoinHalving #Bitcoin
