Eternel insatisfait

BTc Still at 71.3k. Expecting a strong bounce (and a range) rather here, before hitting 63k, which is  also what we want for spot buy 1
Alright so, after losing 81k, talked about bearish continuation and taking out levels 75.5k and 74.5k in succession (with a pause in between).
Once they were taken out, the plan since was to expect a high timeframe low somewhere in the purple, specifically closer to the low 60k's, and a bounce before hitting that area (new concretely drew the daily POI).

Reason for this bounce is through factoring in time (and local confirmation), which, if we would sink straight to 63k, that bottom would be in Q1 which is not ideal and not in alignment with the overall power of the POI below.
Hence, if my idea of a bottom in that area is right, it is indeed more logical to see a range form around here first, at worst with range low ending up in the upper 60k's before the actual bottom.
We are at a daily POI and are still in the first week of February only, bears are also getting really confident again while we just had a major move down already.
So for this range to form, we would need a bounce now or very shortly, and later a range low sweep or $ETH mmd (where $ETH sweeps instead).
Once this range is showing early confirmation, I become more confident in longs again because I am indeed careful in longs as you know, as mentioned before.
How I factor in my spot buys recently
In expectation of this bounce, we estimated a first large spot buy in this "bear market".
Spot buys right before a large bounce, even if price ends up lower later, are ideal because it helps to not fomo later at possibly the worst time, also beating mindless (or even risk adjusted) DCA-ing both materially and psychologically.
Hence, this bounce would be ideal just from a spot holding perspective too.
That is why I placed them in this region.
Regarding leverage, a range forming also prepares us to trade it again which is a great opportunity for easy trades.
Planning far ahead though however. For now, trading frequency is lower, and focus is put on placing spot buys correctly, as this type of market should be played in current conditions (meaning no confirmation of a low yet).
Hope this helps you further understand how I navigate this low both on leverage and spot, and how I intend to play it optimally (the action, the most important part).

$BTC

Nice reaction so far, keep in mind our levels (with patience)

Alright, nice reaction so far after taking the weak lows (TPO wise), and weekend lows at the same time.
You may remember last post I talked about how, despite both levels being close together, it's still important to separate both as a reaction in between is likely and will cause scatter in thoughts around.

It's the last line of defence and weak lows are key liquidity to provide a reaction.

Personally still want to see the move continue higher somewhat more. Shorting here towards the level is certainly not worth it, let's fill at least the CME gap, and bring us way closer to 90.4k.

Other than that, to long, or add to high timeframe spot, I still prefer to wait for 74.4k (and more so deeper below, but lets see how far the slide goes upon taking the level), per overall plan (with patience).

Regarding that "patience", indeed pointed out in the title last post.

That's all normal during the monthly transition. Every month ends with a closing wick and an opening wick so it's always a good general assumption, you know the drill. Just putting alerts and not overthinking it, whilst staying ready and on top of the plan.

Sentiment
Sentiment wise, we are quite scattered. But I sure will say that the ISM data does put a bullish twist on it in quite a sudden sense. Not an extreme one, but certainly enough to get people excited on a small pump from here.

Personally looking for that when heading into a short trade from higher.

Summary

So goal is still to wait here, action follows from either side, with the main point being that CME gap fill would be nice, and the level 74.4k is likely to be cleared. Even if a "small" move seems unsignificant, we are already seeing some bottom calling occur sentiment wise and the anticipation of such a big structural low breaking is not just about proximity, it's also about time (it is taking its time), and keeping it in mind in case we counter trend rally, preparing the trade and seeing if sentiment alongside order flow and local confirmation indeed sets up the trade.

The reason for the sharp fall was nothing more than extreme sized short positions that entered the futures market, pressuring the price down sharply. Coming to this conclusion is pretty simple by watching the futures volume, but to verify further its important to watch, and I noticed some very interesting pattern, the pattern that confirms my thesis that some shorts needed an exit. And it was given to them today in both markets, Shanghai and COMEX:
What exactly happened today? As per Shanghai, I did not see large physical silver withdrawals worth mentioning, meaning no physical silver changed hands during today’s downside move. So what happened?
First, the silver price was heavily pressured down by empty paper shorts. Even in Shanghai, the futures market is backed by paper rather than physical, something many tend to miss. SGE1!, however, is 100% backed by physical silver bars. However, NON PHYSICAL silver did change hands today: (531 tonnes) of silver contracts were traded in Shanghai. This reflects short positions being closed and transferred to new long holders, with buyers stepping in as sellers exited their shorts at lower prices 10-15% below daily open. No physical silver left vaults today, this is not a bearish sign at all. This was a paper / spot-deferred position transfer, not a physical delivery many would fear.
Again, this is active movement in the derivative market. So the structure of what happened was: first, heavy paper pressure, second, shorts used the drop to exit, third, buyers absorbed everything, and fourth very important: no confirmed physical liquidation. In my opinion, what happened today was a paper-driven shakeout with continued accumulation. The COMEX data is always published one business day later, so expect the data on Monday, while we have Shanghai report already and it speaks a clear language.
Also, it is very interesting timing to see the same manipulation repeatedly happening at month-end, just like last month on December 31, when silver dropped around 15% in one day before continuing its run. Guess what happened on that same day as well: the Standing Repo handed out record amounts of USD to banks. Again, guess what those banks are actively involved in heavy silver shorts. The data is public for everyone to see on FRED and CME. There is a strong relationship between end-of-month lending for balance-sheet purposes and the ability to enter large-sized price suppressions at month-end. This pattern is very obvious and aligns with my theory that banks are in extreme and serious trouble, not only because of tight liquidity, but because the next risk is coming from Silver. One of the major reasons for the expected financial crisis and stock market crash I am predicting and shorting since several months with great profits on several trades posted such as PLTR, NFLX, MSFT, COIN, MSTR and many more, open since several months already.. (Only posted in premium: whop.com/drprofit-tradi…)
Nothing changes the fact that physical silver remains very bullish and highly demanded. I am not willing to sell at $85, and I don’t know anyone who is willing to sell their rare metal at such a price. Monday will be a very interesting day for many reasons. The U.S. market closed at $84, while Shanghai closed near $122. We are talking about a historic gap of 44%. On Monday, dealers around the world will need to decide at what price they are willing to sell physical ounces. Let me remind you that physical silver was sold at $120–$130 in recent weeks, reaching $150 in Tokyo as well, and it is sold out at most dealers, so why should the dealers lower their prices if demand remains same or even higher?
Shanghai and COMEX needed a safe exit from their short positions and thats what its all about, and I believe the coming weeks will show us why. This brings me to the conclusion: the purpose of this move was clear, the market understands that silver is in a strong bull run and shorts have started to capitulate. I remain very bullish, as I was at $20. We hit my target of $100, and I personally expect $130-150 in a matter of time.
Reference for above data provided by Shanghai market: en.sge.com.cn/h5_data_DailyR…)
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