Eternel insatisfait

The bottom is in for two months at least (please read the details before concluding)
Five days ago, I mentioned that we likely see a potential bottom in our purple POI, and do so around 63k. Drew my arrow and squigly, and so here we are.
Yesterday, price reached that level, and so I repeated this is likely a significant bottom.

This also was the next significant area where I seriously consider flipping back to bullish after going bearish from 81k above us.
I know it feels like Yesterday that price was at 81k, almost as if flipping bullish again here is a flip-flop. But in a bear market, bitcoin (crypto) drops fast, and a bearish bias doesn't have to be held for a very long time. $BTC dropped another 23% since I flipped bearish so that proves enough.
My main stance also has been that I do not believe this to be a 60%+ bear market, nor will we drop much lower in the second half of the year 2026.
So, with everything being called out in advance (since 81k), the level responding as it should, and local confirmation saying (to large extent) that this is a significant low, with quantitative data showing at least 2 months of repair necessary to undo the damage, right off our level, in a bear market, that repair means upside.
So, I am going to make a bold call, based on all that data, based on all the sentiment, even ancient bears coming back up and suddenly calling for 50k, that's the perfect time to think this low is likely going to hold for at least 2 months.

You may think: "what's the point". But it allows us to farm trades in the range and know that every proximity to range low is a good long, as well as early visits to range high (tbd) is a good short. And what happens after, might also become a surprise.

I understand everyone is bearish, and I don't want this information to be taken like gospel. In recent time, we have seen I can be wrong as well. Although my bullish bias did end up holding into a range for a long time and resulting in nice trades off it, it was wrong and I expressed myself too loudly towards the end of it.

So instead, I decided to change the details, into how I just think the low holds, and anything forth-flowing from that is natural, the tone remains the same however (bullish from 63k). And I will simply continue to take logical trades from there using that bias.

Because I can't go against the data, the system and what we planned.
So, after turning bearish at 81k, I will be bullish for a while again at 63k. I believe a range forms, and it's most likely favourably traded longside (but I will also be taking shorts).
Not the most popular opinion. Many are busy engagement farming the bear market, of course. But I promise you the peak (today, Yesterday), happened at the worst times.
Seeing some opinion hedging happening of how this could be a bottom as Feb March in bear markets are green.  But without any action, it's just opinion hedging.
So I just want to keep it honest and clear, what my thoughts are and how I see this progress whether it's right or wrong.
Do not be surprised if we lose the low before end of March, just look at my trades, how I act and whether my bias changes again.
But many of you know that I stick to my bias for a long time, it usually plays out for a long time, makes a lot of money, until right, or proven wrong. Again, a weekly close (or anticipated earlier per clear post), invalidates the bias and we can talk about 50k or below.
But for now, that's not the case as long as our 63k is the bottom idea holds, as well as our "this won't be a 70-80% bear market". Cautiously for now by holding a low risk long, and 1 spot buy in, but more strongly later if confirmation leads us further.

BTc Still at 71.3k. Expecting a strong bounce (and a range) rather here, before hitting 63k, which is  also what we want for spot buy 1
Alright so, after losing 81k, talked about bearish continuation and taking out levels 75.5k and 74.5k in succession (with a pause in between).
Once they were taken out, the plan since was to expect a high timeframe low somewhere in the purple, specifically closer to the low 60k's, and a bounce before hitting that area (new concretely drew the daily POI).

Reason for this bounce is through factoring in time (and local confirmation), which, if we would sink straight to 63k, that bottom would be in Q1 which is not ideal and not in alignment with the overall power of the POI below.
Hence, if my idea of a bottom in that area is right, it is indeed more logical to see a range form around here first, at worst with range low ending up in the upper 60k's before the actual bottom.
We are at a daily POI and are still in the first week of February only, bears are also getting really confident again while we just had a major move down already.
So for this range to form, we would need a bounce now or very shortly, and later a range low sweep or $ETH mmd (where $ETH sweeps instead).
Once this range is showing early confirmation, I become more confident in longs again because I am indeed careful in longs as you know, as mentioned before.
How I factor in my spot buys recently
In expectation of this bounce, we estimated a first large spot buy in this "bear market".
Spot buys right before a large bounce, even if price ends up lower later, are ideal because it helps to not fomo later at possibly the worst time, also beating mindless (or even risk adjusted) DCA-ing both materially and psychologically.
Hence, this bounce would be ideal just from a spot holding perspective too.
That is why I placed them in this region.
Regarding leverage, a range forming also prepares us to trade it again which is a great opportunity for easy trades.
Planning far ahead though however. For now, trading frequency is lower, and focus is put on placing spot buys correctly, as this type of market should be played in current conditions (meaning no confirmation of a low yet).
Hope this helps you further understand how I navigate this low both on leverage and spot, and how I intend to play it optimally (the action, the most important part).

$BTC

Nice reaction so far, keep in mind our levels (with patience)

Alright, nice reaction so far after taking the weak lows (TPO wise), and weekend lows at the same time.
You may remember last post I talked about how, despite both levels being close together, it's still important to separate both as a reaction in between is likely and will cause scatter in thoughts around.

It's the last line of defence and weak lows are key liquidity to provide a reaction.

Personally still want to see the move continue higher somewhat more. Shorting here towards the level is certainly not worth it, let's fill at least the CME gap, and bring us way closer to 90.4k.

Other than that, to long, or add to high timeframe spot, I still prefer to wait for 74.4k (and more so deeper below, but lets see how far the slide goes upon taking the level), per overall plan (with patience).

Regarding that "patience", indeed pointed out in the title last post.

That's all normal during the monthly transition. Every month ends with a closing wick and an opening wick so it's always a good general assumption, you know the drill. Just putting alerts and not overthinking it, whilst staying ready and on top of the plan.

Sentiment
Sentiment wise, we are quite scattered. But I sure will say that the ISM data does put a bullish twist on it in quite a sudden sense. Not an extreme one, but certainly enough to get people excited on a small pump from here.

Personally looking for that when heading into a short trade from higher.

Summary

So goal is still to wait here, action follows from either side, with the main point being that CME gap fill would be nice, and the level 74.4k is likely to be cleared. Even if a "small" move seems unsignificant, we are already seeing some bottom calling occur sentiment wise and the anticipation of such a big structural low breaking is not just about proximity, it's also about time (it is taking its time), and keeping it in mind in case we counter trend rally, preparing the trade and seeing if sentiment alongside order flow and local confirmation indeed sets up the trade.