CapitalFlowTech

On Tuesday we set out how to read this week's CPI: headline was expected to run on energy, and a core surprise was the outcome that would change the reading. Core surprised. September core prices rose 0.3% on the month against 0.2% expected, taking the annual rate to 2.6% from 2.4%. Headline rose 0.6%, to 3.7%, with gasoline up 9.1% and accounting for more than half of the monthly increase. Producer prices followed on Thursday, up 6.3% on the year, the most since December 2022.
The bond market did the opposite of what a core surprise implies. The 10-year spiked to 5.33% after the release, above the 5.26% close of June 2007, and reversed the same day. It trades near 5.10% today. A print is not acceptance. Tech lost more than a trillion dollars of market value in about a week, and Treasuries were bought as the safe asset. A long end that rallies through a hot core print fears the tightening more than the inflation. Markets have moved an October hike back into play, near 30%, with December still the more likely move.
The 10-year is on course for a second weekly close below 5.26%. On the framework we published, that turns the 2007 close into resistance.
Bitcoin
$BTC did not trade with bonds. It traded with tech. The CPI-day rally stalled near 84,000, just beneath 84,047, the 38.2% retracement it lost the week before. Thursday's slide then made a lower low near 79,800. That is the second time in two weeks that Treasuries were bought and bitcoin was sold.
The retest from below failed. $BTC near 81,500, 34% retraced on the grid we published. Rejection keeps 74,136, the 23.6% retracement, as the next reference, about 9% below spot. Acceptance back above 84,047 is what would reopen the 83–87k zone; acceptance above 87k is still what changes the structure.
Positioning
The book is balanced. The BTC short, held for several weeks, stands against longs in $HBAR, $XLM and $AVAX. AVAX was opened and HBAR added when bitcoin traded near 80,000 this week. Disclosure: the BTC short was held while writing the above. The zone and its invalidation were published on 3 September, before the position.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CPI #Macro #Bonds

Friday's weekly close put the 10-year at 5.24%, two basis points below the 5.26% close of June 2007. Below, but not by a margin that amounts to acceptance. It has since traded down to 5.19% and is back near 5.22% today.
Tomorrow's CPI is the next input, and it is mostly an energy print. Consensus looks for headline inflation near 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August, with core expected to stay close to 2.4%. In August, gasoline was up 27% on the year and energy explained most of the gap between the two. Brent is back above $105, with tanker disruption in the Red Sea.
That gap is what to read tomorrow. A headline jump with core near 2.4% would leave the case for further tightening resting on energy, a supply shock that higher rates do little to address. A core surprise would change that reading. Markets still price a December hike as more likely than not.
For the 10-year, the reference is unchanged. A second weekly close below 5.26% would turn the 2007 level into resistance. Acceptance back above it puts last week's 5.35–5.36% highs back in view.
Bitcoin
On Thursday $BTC lost 84,047, the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the October 2025 high to the July low. From the 80,350 low it has recovered to 83,500, back at the lower edge of the 83–87k zone we published on 3 September and just beneath 84,047.
The level we lost is being retested from below, one day before CPI. A retest is not acceptance. Acceptance back above 84,047 would put the zone back in play; rejection here keeps 74,136, the 23.6% retracement, as the next reference. Acceptance above 87k is still what changes the structure.
Positioning
The book is close to balanced. The BTC short remains open against longs in $XLM and $HBAR; HBAR was added on overnight weakness. Disclosure: the BTC short was held while writing the above. The zone and its invalidation were published on 3 September, before the position.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CPI #Macro #Bonds

Last week we named the weekly close as the verdict on the 2007 level. It gave none: the 10-year settled within a basis point of the 5.26% close of June 2007. This week supplied one in each direction.
Monday took the 10-year to 5.35%, its highest since April 2002, after the ISM services price index rose to 74; the 30-year reached 5.70%, a level last seen in May 2002. Wednesday's minutes showed all 19 policymakers backed September's hike and most expect another before year-end. The 10-year touched a fresh 24-year high near 5.36%, then reversed after a strong 10-year auction. Today it is back near 5.24%, below the 2007 close.
Three closes above the level, and today back below it. The 2007 close has now been crossed both ways inside a week, and neither side holds it. CPI on 14 October is the next input.
The more useful signal came from today's divergence. Brent rose more than 3% to above $103 on renewed US–Iran escalation risk. The long end fell six basis points. $BTC fell to 80,350, its lowest in nearly three weeks, with more than half a billion dollars of long positions liquidated. In an energy shock, Treasuries were bought and bitcoin was sold; that is risk-asset behaviour, not hedge behaviour. For two weeks bitcoin traded the 10-year in both directions. Today it traded oil and leverage.
Bitcoin
On 3 September we published 83–87k as resistance. It was printed through twice, at 87,300 on 21 September and above 87,000 again on 2 October, and rejected both times just beneath bitcoin's 2026 opening price. Our framework said failure in the zone would send attention to 84,047 first. That level, the 38.2% retracement, has been lost.
$BTC near 81,620, 35% retraced on the grid we published. The next published reference is 74,136, the 23.6% retracement and July's resistance, about 9% below spot. Acceptance back above 84,047 would put the zone back in play; acceptance above 87k is still what changes the structure.
Positioning
the BTC short remains open. Small longs in XLM and HBAR were added on Thursday's dip; cash the balance. Disclosure: we hold a short BTC position at the time of writing. The zone and its invalidation were published before the position.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Macro #Oil #Bonds

On Wednesday we set two markers for the week: the 2007 close at 5.26% on the 10-year, and Friday's payrolls as the next test.
The payrolls missed badly. September added 29,000 jobs against roughly 90,000 expected. August was revised down to 133,000 from 162,000, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.1%. Odds of an October hike collapsed.
The first reaction did what the textbook says. The 10-year fell as much as 8 basis points, equities jumped at the open, and $BTC traded above 87,000 again.
Then it reversed. By the afternoon the 10-year was back at 5.26%, the 2007 close, and bitcoin back below 84,700.
That is the second time in three sessions. On Wednesday a softer PCE took the 10-year to 5.20% intraday; it closed higher, and bitcoin's run to 85,500 faded the same way. Two prints that lowered the policy path, and neither brought the long end down for more than a few hours. At these levels the move looks driven more by term premium and supply than by the next Fed meeting.
The 10-year goes into the weekly close sitting almost exactly on the 2007 level, after a week that reached 5.34%, the highest since 2002. That close is the verdict on whether the break was acceptance or a print.
Bitcoin
Today was the second print through 87k, after 87,300 on 21 September. Two prints, no acceptance, and both reversed with the long end. This week, bitcoin traded the 10-year in both directions.
$BTC near 84,700, 39% retraced on the grid we published, a few hundred dollars above the 38.2% at 84,047. Acceptance above 87k still changes the structure; a loss of 84,047 sends attention to 74,136.
Positioning
One short remains open. Disclosure: it is a BTC short, held while writing the above. The zone and its invalidation were published on 3 September, before the position.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Macro #Jobs #Bonds

On 17 September we wrote that the first of our two conditions had not fired: the 10-year had touched 5% and backed away, and a print is not acceptance. Six days later, it accepted.
The 10-year cleared the 2023 high near 5.02% on 23 September and has not closed below 5% since. On the 28th it closed at 5.24%, two basis points under the 5.26% close of June 2007, after an intraday high of 5.274%, the highest since that month. The 30-year reached its highest level since 2002.
That is the transmission our framework was built around, and it is showing up where we said it would. Thirty-year mortgage rates are above 7%. Existing home sales are at a one-year low. The S&P's forward multiple has compressed to 19 from 22. Tightening reaches valuations through the long end, not the policy rate; the long end has now carried what the dot plot signalled. Fed speakers have not softened either: Barr said further increases are likely necessary, and Williams that another hike late this year could be appropriate.
Today brought the first relief. August PCE came in lighter than expected, 3.4% headline and 3.0% core, and the 10-year eased toward 5.22% while the 2-year fell further. That is a pause beneath the 2007 high, not a move away from it.
The 2007 close at 5.26% is now the level. A close above it takes the long end back to the early 2000s. Held below, today's print becomes the first evidence the move is running out. Friday's payrolls are the next test.
Bitcoin
$BTC near 83,500, 37% retraced on the grid we published. Last week it tested 87,000, the top of the 83–87k zone we published on 3 September, and was rejected; the rejection coincided with the 10-year's break to a 19-year high. Price has since come back through the zone and now sits just below the 38.2% retracement at 84,047, the first reference we named if the zone failed.
Bitcoin is set to close its best September on record, and all of that gain sits below the level that would change the structure. Acceptance above 87k is still what changes the picture. Below 84,047, the next reference is 74,136; the 23.6% retracement and July's resistance.
This week's trades
Profits taken across the short book: ZEC, LINK and the remaining alt shorts closed into target. Same structure each time: a level, confirmation of rejection, a written invalidation, a defined target.
One short remains open. Disclosure: it is a BTC short, held while writing the above. The zone and its invalidation were published on 3 September, before the position.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Macro #Bonds #crypto

On 3 September we published 83–87k as major resistance, reinforced by the 38.2% retracement at 84,047. It went untested for eighteen days. Today $BTC reached 86,300, an eight-month high and the first contact with that zone since the July low.
The zone is being tested. It has not been cleared. That distinction is the whole position.
What moved it
The mechanics matter more than the level. Roughly $648m of short positions were liquidated on the move, with over $262m wiped out in a single hour as price approached 84,000. Forced closing is mechanical buying; each liquidation is a market order that lifts price into the next tier of stops. A meaningful share of today's demand was not discretionary.
That doesn't invalidate the move, but it changes how to read it. Squeeze-driven advances into resistance resolve in both directions, and the leverage that produced the acceleration can produce the reversal at the same speed.
The discretionary bid is real too. ETF inflows returned with $433m on the 19th and a second consecutive positive session. Brent fell for a fourth straight day, its longest run in three months, pulling the inflation premium out of the long end and easing the pressure that defined the last two weeks. Risk appetite ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting did the rest.
Where this resolves
Acceptance above 87k, not a print through it, is what changes the structure. That would put the 50% retracement at 92,058 in play and, for the first time since October 2025, make a higher-low sequence testable.
Failure in the zone returns attention to 84,047 first, then 74,136; the 23.6% retracement and July's resistance. Below that, 67–69k.
Fear and Greed at 77 is not a timing tool, but it says positioning is no longer defensive. We treat the zone as unresolved and require acceptance, as published.
Positioning
Long exposure was closed into strength; profits booked across the book. We are now net short, cash the balance.
Disclosure: we hold short exposure in assets discussed above. The zone and its 87k invalidation were published on 3 September, well before the position.
Open positions and full trade history since inception:
app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Macro #ETF #Crypto

Our framework set two conditions for the Fed to reprice risk: acceptance above 5% on the 10-year, or guidance that reads as the opening of a sequence rather than a single adjustment.
The second fired clearly. The Fed raised 25bp to 3.75–4.00%, its first increase since 2023, unanimously; and 16 of 18 participants projected at least one more hike this year, four of them two. Warsh said inflation has been too high for too long and that the committee's standard has not been satisfied. That is a sequence, not an adjustment.
The first did not. The 10-year touched 5% on Tuesday and has backed away since. A print is not acceptance.
Risk rallied anyway: equities up over 1%, gold up more than 2%, crude down roughly 3% toward $99.
That outcome is the framework, not an exception to it. Tightening reaches equity valuations through the long end of the curve, not through the policy rate.
The Fed delivered the hawkish message and the long end declined to carry it; helped by oil backing away from the geopolitical spike that had been feeding the inflation premium.
Hawkish guidance without bond-market transmission does not reprice risk.
That is also the fragility. The rally rests on two things the Fed does not control: where crude goes next, and whether the long end keeps rejecting 5%. Either one turning restores the pressure immediately, and the dot plot has already told us the policy path.
Bitcoin
$BTC near 76,700, 27% retraced on the grid we published. 74,136 held; the low this week came within striking distance and never reached it. The level stands, 3% below spot.
The structure is unchanged in both directions. 83–87k remains untested above. Below, 74,136 stays the line, and losing it puts 67–69k in view. The failure of the Clarity Act in the Senate on a 49–50 vote removes the legislative catalyst for 2026 and leaves the sector dependent on agency rulemaking; a headwind that sits outside anything the Fed does.
Positioning
Cash remains the dominant allocation. We hold small long exposure across a handful of majors and one open short.
Disclosure: we hold positions in assets discussed above. The framework was published before the positions and is unchanged by them.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Macro #FederalReserve #Fed