阿苏ICT带单日记

After a rapid rise in the early phase, the crypto market over the past 24 hours has entered a high-level range-bound consolidation. Meanwhile, with expectations for Federal Reserve policy and upcoming macro data approaching, market risk appetite has cooled somewhat $BTC
The total global crypto market capitalization has fallen back to around $2.7 trillion. After BTC broke above $80,000, some profit-taking has occurred, and pullbacks have been even more pronounced for certain high-beta assets
On the macro front, U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar trend, and the upcoming release of the PCE inflation data remain the core variables affecting short-term liquidity $ETH
Previously, the decline in long-end Treasury yields provided support for risk assets, but as key data and Fed remarks approach, capital has started to become more cautious, and market volatility may be further amplified
From the order-book structure, the current situation looks more like digestion of gains at high levels rather than a trend that has fully weakened #XRP一周上涨44%
In the short term, it is important to focus on whether BTC can hold key support levels, and whether leveraged positions continue to accumulate $BNB
If macro data or policy signals turn clearly hawkish, combined with an over-concentrated long position, the market cannot rule out a repeat of rapid deleveraging and cascading liquidations 阿苏合约交流群
Therefore, in this phase, it is not advisable to chase rallies blindly, nor to heavily bet on a single direction during the consolidation. Instead, closely monitor macro data, fund flows, and the resonance signals around key price levels, and wait for the market to provide a clearer direction confirmation 阿苏合约交流入口

Yesterday this long order move was relatively smooth. Enter around 2440-2448, and the market later gave room to move. Reduce positions when needed—take profit first $ETH
As for the short order at 2498, it didn’t hit yesterday, so there was no need to force it. The following 2515±2 is only a backup add-on plan; if it doesn’t trigger, then we won’t do it 😂$BTC
That’s basically how trading is: if there’s a chance, do it. If it hasn’t reached the level, wait. I’d rather do one less trade than chase the market #美国加密股指数涨5.04%
Yesterday’s long orders were basically all taken. Next, we’ll keep looking at the new levels.

This ETH move could also be considered pretty well-executed
In the afternoon, near 2440, the idea was given: stop-loss at 2420, and the initial target to look at was 2500. In the middle, there wasn’t really anything to rush—just hold according to the plan. #黄金反弹站上4600美元
After that, the price kept rising all the way, peaking at 2507. The target near 2500 was also reached smoothly, and the position was then closed to lock in profit.
When it comes to trading, I’ve always felt there’s no need to chase orders every day. Once you’ve identified the right position, clearly state the stop-loss and take-profit in advance. The rest is simply patience and waiting.
#以太坊ETF周净流入6.97亿美元
It doesn’t matter how many points you make. What matters is that every single trade has its own plan. $ETH

Just now this wave of ETH has basically played out.
In the midday order there was a pullback in the middle, but the structure didn’t break—after that it kept rallying all the way up, perfectly reaching the take-profit area 😂$ETH
In this kind of market, you don’t need to chase. Once the level is given, just be patient and wait. When it reaches the target, close it—don’t be greedy for the next few points $BTC
This trade today also went smoothly and cashed out. Next, I’ll keep waiting for the next opportunity 💪

Aug 22 Evening Analysis #TRUMP突破3.4美元创3月21日以来新高
Over the past 24 hours, macro risk-avoidance sentiment has intensified, and after the impact of derivatives liquidation, today the overall crypto market continues to drift lower in a weak posture while searching for support. On the global macro front, geopolitical tensions repeatedly overlap with subtle changes in the Fed’s policy path; U.S. Treasury yields have been rising at elevated levels, continuously squeezing risk assets. Traditional U.S. equities and crypto assets have both fallen together. Meanwhile, on-chain leverage long positions remain high. In the absence of sustained support from new spot-buy inflows, even mild selling pressure can trigger a localized liquidation chain. If liquidity above on the short term cannot be replenished effectively, the market may probe further into key demand zones. With the combination of high volatility and missing liquidity, traders must stay highly vigilant $GOOGL.US
BTC Analysis: As a macro liquidity amplifier, Bitcoin has been significantly affected by the pullback in U.S. stock risk appetite. Spot ETF inflows have slowed noticeably. Institutional funds are temporarily shifting toward taking profits and standing by. In terms of technical structure, combining the Wyckoff distribution model, the current price is in the SOW confirmation phase of range-bound consolidation. Volume Profile shows that the POC is near 77800. The VAH at 78500 forms strong short-term supply resistance above. The VAL at 76600 is the key bottom line for long-side defense. Indicators: The BOLL bands are opening with the lower band pressing down; the 4-hour MACD histogram continues below the zero axis. RSI is stabilizing weakly around 42. KDJ is in a low-level oversold rebound, but momentum remains insufficient. If 77500 cannot be effectively regained, a second round of downside stampede is easily triggered $BTC
ETH Analysis: The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, and relative performance remains soft. On-chain data shows that large holders and institutional capital have recently been more inclined to convert ETH into stablecoins or lend it out to hedge. Layer 2 transaction volume diverting also keeps the mainnet Gas fee rate low. The deflationary effect has weakened and may even turn briefly into inflation. During this pullback, ETH’s downside has exceeded BTC’s; the exchange rate is approaching prior lows. Active buy-side demand is clearly lacking. Technically, prices repeatedly test and hit the 2400–2420 support area. Once this liquidity pool is broken, downside room will open up. Bulls must build a solid defense here, otherwise the weak setup is unlikely to be reversed in the short term. Also follow for updates on A-Su! $ETH

2336⬆️$ETH

Why be rebellious? 😭😭😭
Why not go out and stay with the baby? 😭😭$ETH

After the turbulent swings in global macro financial markets over the past 24 hours, today’s early crypto market maintains a weak bias. The key driver is the reallocation of funds between the technology sector and the crypto market: after Micron reported a record-setting earnings performance, global capital accelerated its flow into AI storage and computing power hardware, further diverting liquidity that is already limited for the crypto market. #苹果股价跌6.1%
Meanwhile, the European Banking Authority (EBA) has formally released a consultation document on the methodology for administrative fines under the MiCA framework, further strengthening expectations for regulation in European markets; this also magnifies compliance pressure when market sentiment is fragile. In the face of relatively certain opportunities in the macro space and ongoing regulatory risks that are heating up for crypto, investors’ risk appetite has clearly declined. Safe-haven sentiment continues to rise, leading to further contraction of market liquidity and persistently lackluster trading activity, with the market overall remaining in a choppy, slightly bearish range-bound pattern.

After experiencing a violent deleveraging process in the derivatives market over the past 24 hours, along with a long squeeze triggered by the concentrated expiration of options totaling more than $10 billion, the market tonight has fallen into an extremely rare form of structural panic. From the perspective of global macro drivers, a decisive paradigm shift has occurred over the past 12–48 hours. On one hand, the strong earnings performance of U.S. chip bellwether Micron initially spurred a rally in tech stocks, but capital rapidly pulled back from crypto assets—an area characterized by high beta and high risk—and instead flowed into AI compute power and semiconductor liquidity pools, where the certainty is stronger. On the other hand, the most fatal blow came from a passive “top of the market” situation in stablecoin valuations—Tether’s market cap surged to $186 billion. Amid a sharp pullback in the price of Ethereum, it even historically managed to overtake ETH’s market cap. The essence of this phenomenon is not large-scale net inflows of external capital; rather, with risk appetite reversing rapidly, existing funds collectively shifted to a structural flight toward fiat as a safe haven. This suggests a severe break in endogenous liquidity within the crypto market. #USDT市值达1860亿美元超越以太坊

June 26, Latest Market Trends Analysis

After nearly a week under a macroeconomic cloud, today’s morning session remains in a state of extreme pressure. From a global finance perspective, the core logic of the current market isn't just a simple long vs. short battle, but rather a chain reaction triggered by an imbalance in liquidity supply and demand. The resilience of U.S. macroeconomic data has far exceeded expectations, completely shattering the market's anticipation of rapid rate cuts by the Fed. Global capital is undergoing a profound valuation reset, with the volatility of tech stocks and the high-leverage liquidations in crypto assets reinforcing each other, creating a vicious feedback loop. Once the market realizes that safe-haven funds haven't flowed into crypto, but instead, the lack of rate cuts has driven up the dollar costs, cash will reign supreme, leading to a slow and painful release of selling pressure akin to a blunt knife cutting flesh. Investors must remain highly vigilant of this low-volume downtrend. #SpaceX蒸发$6000亿

Global traders are holding their breath for the upcoming FOMC meeting results. The current financial environment is locked in a tug-of-war between the long tail effects of high interest rates and growth resilience, with cryptocurrencies as liquidity-sensitive assets caught in the eye of this macro storm. Recently, strong economic data from the US has continuously challenged the market's expectations for rate cuts, leading to significant reset pressure on risk asset valuations. Coupled with the substantial outflows recorded from crypto ETFs, market liquidity is facing structural challenges. Ahead of the Fed's rate decision and dot plot release, any bullish attempts to pump prices seem cautious, as this risk-off sentiment is directly suppressing market rebound momentum#沃什聘保守派顾问促美联储改革

Recently, following the release of the CPI data, ETH has shown a pattern of spiking and then pulling back, with a final hour surge. ETH quickly shot up to a high of 1848.99 before hitting resistance and retracing; it's currently trading in a tight range around 1814, with volatility slightly increased compared to previous days. Trading volume has significantly spiked to over 263.5k, and open interest remains high, indicating a fierce hedge battle between bulls and bears ahead of the FOMC meeting. From a technical perspective, the price is repeatedly testing the critical oscillation range between 1800-1850, with multiple moving averages tangled together; the MACD has been crossing near the zero line, showing weak momentum; the RSI is currently in a neutral zone, without clear overbought or oversold signals; the KDJ J value is hovering around 79, indicating some short-term overbought signs but not diverging. Overall, the market is still at a high-sensitivity pivot point ahead of the FOMC, with bulls and bears in a stalemate. #以太坊从6月低点反弹22%

From the 15-minute time frame, the short-term bullish trend has been broken. The EMA network above has shifted from being a support level to a strong resistance level now. A substantial reversal in the short-term bearish pattern seems unlikely. Overall, the technicals are showing three weak characteristics: 'downward shift in center of gravity, shrinking volume, and gap in positions.' Until we see a new golden cross in the MACD or the RSI indicator rebounds, the market is likely to maintain a weak consolidation or continue to test lower levels. $ETH
ETH: Around [1660-1665]🈳, looking down to [1600-1610]

Looking at the 30-minute timeframe, the short-term bullish trend has been broken. The resistance zone at 1637 has flipped from a previous support level to a strong resistance area. A substantial reversal in the mid-term bearish pattern seems unlikely. Overall, the technicals show three weak characteristics: "structural imbalance, waning momentum, and a downward shift in focus." The market is likely to maintain weak consolidation or continue to dip before a golden cross forms on the ATR volatility or a major trend filter indicator rebounds. $BTC
ETH: Around 1630-1640 is a no-go zone, looking down to 1570-1580.

【June 9 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis】
Bitcoin: Bitcoin is currently in a narrow range with low volume oscillation. After experiencing a significant pullback, the price is recently fluctuating around 63000, indicating a chip handover. The Bollinger Bands are showing signs of narrowing, suggesting that both bullish and bearish momentum is exhausting. From the chart, pay attention to the support level around the previous low of 59080; if this level is effectively breached, it may trigger a new wave of liquidity sell-off. The resistance above is focused on the upper edge of the recent consolidation box, around 64000. There is currently a lack of clear directional choice, so be cautious of false breakouts leading to liquidity washouts in high-frequency trading. $BTC
Ethereum: Ethereum's movement is highly correlated with the overall market, currently trading in a tight range around the dense transaction area of 1690. On the technical side, the RSI shows mediocre momentum, and the KDJ is converging in the high zone, lacking further upward attack volume. Short-term, focus on defending the support strength at 1650; if this level fails, it will test the integer level above 1500. A breakout above 1720 would open up further upside potential. Currently, it is in a low-volume consolidation phase, so it's not advisable to chase the price aggressively; treat it with a range-bound strategy. $ETH
Today's Market Summary and Trading Suggestions: The market is in a clear low-volume bottoming phase, with a deadlock in the bullish-bearish battle, making it very low odds for blind breakout plays. It is recommended to engage in high sell and low buy around the edges of the consolidation box, strictly control positions, and avoid aggressively chasing orders without volume support to guard against sudden liquidity washout risks leading to short-term pullbacks. $BNB

Asu 6.5 Market Analysis
From a 30-minute timeframe, the mid-term bearish trend has been broken, with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands transitioning from a former support level to a current strong resistance level. A significant reversal of the mid-term bearish setup seems unlikely. Overall, the technicals are showing a triple weak signal: 'volume spike with a sell-off, MACD death cross, and RSI extremely oversold.' Until we see a MACD golden cross or the RSI indicator rebounds, the market is likely to maintain a weak sideways movement or continue to test lower levels. $ETH
Ether: around 1727-1740🈳, looking down to 1712-1678

Asu 6.4 Market Analysis
From the 15-minute timeframe, the short-term bullish trend has been broken. The 1810-1820 zone, which was initially a support level, has now flipped to a strong resistance level. It's going to be tough for a substantial reversal in the short-term bearish pattern. Overall, the technicals show a triple weakness characteristic: "price has broken below the equilibrium, the FVG area is blocked, and momentum indicators are weakening." Until the MACD forms a golden cross again or the volume indicators show a rebound, the market is likely to maintain weak oscillations or continue to test lower levels. $ETH
ETH: Around 1815-1820 🈳, looking down to 1790-1770.

The market is in a severe flip, with Fed rate expectations hanging over us like the Sword of Damocles, continuously draining liquidity from risk markets. Currently, BTC has effectively broken below the previous accumulation zone, technically confirming a failed second test of the Wyckoff distribution phase. The bullish defense line at 72.7k is hanging by a thread; if we lose this level, we could face a deep liquidation below. We're on the eve of a bull collapse, so don’t blindly try to catch the falling knife during this drop. $BTC