Traders are actively opening long positions right now.
▶If BTC drops sharply to around $76,000, liquidations will total $6.8 billion.
▶If ETH drops sharply to around $2,400, liquidations will total $3.5 billion.
And the fucking market keeps dragging us higher, when it should be crashing in long red candles halfway down the screen. I’m waiting, still in my positions too. Remember: patience is the key to success.
While we were being held in a range, liquidity above was swept several times, and it has built up again. So we need to adjust the scenario to account for a possible move to 88200–88500. We’ll sweep the newly accumulated liquidity cluster there, and only then will the price fall. Also, macro data is due out tomorrow at 21:00; they may manipulate the price ahead of it, then dump.
I’m 101% confident the market will correct, and I’m sticking with the scenario of a drop to at least 79000.
I’m planning to open hedge-long positions now, for a breakout from the range and a sweep of the last liquidity cluster. Then I’ll close the hedge-long positions, add to my short position, and ride it down toward the liquidity pools below.
I think I’ve explained it clearly: the spring in the market is tightening, and we’ll see a breakout soon. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#On-chain: profit-taking is in full swing, but fresh money keeps flowing in
I came across some fresh market research from Glassnode. I decided to read it, dig deeper, and compare it with my own findings and market theses. I’ll also note that Glassnode analysts’ opinions change about as often as the weather, so I use their figures in my analysis but run their conclusions through my own framework.
#hype - i want to start building a short position with a grid, i’m taking from the current one at 2/4; if they push higher, i’ll add 1/4 at a time $HYPE
A large limit seller is defending the $87,000 level; it will be hard to break through.
More clarity will come from the NY open. If, before then, the price is brought back below 85,050, we'll consider it just manipulation that swept up all the shorts' liquidity.
I don't see any point in the price moving further up—there’s practically no liquidity left above, but there’s plenty to take below 🤔
On LTC - I don’t like one thing; I didn’t notice. At the top there’s 1D imba—someone could stab into it and then it would move on from there. I removed the stop and placed a limit there for 2/4 to add to the position.
This is how it’ll be more correct: I placed the stop at 71.
USDT.D - interesting fact: we’re standing at a very strong support level on USDT.D. A breakout of this level is the start of a bullish move, in my opinion. But what’s happening right now just doesn’t make sense to me. I’m expecting possibly some more local manipulation, but holding the level and moving to 6.9%, 7.5%—and that’s where we’ll also see a market correction.
BTC SOL ETH hedges - I’m on 4/4, waiting for a drop; it’s confusing that we’re getting triggered, but we tested the support a lot—at the slightest trigger, they’ll pour in; the main thing is no surprises from the infopole side.
Metals: gold, silver — that’s how I hold my longs.
Oil — I’m holding a long.
SP500 — already for about a month and a half in position... the fund simply froze it at the highs. I consider it the same way as I wrote earlier: a liquidity rebalance is taking place; after that, it will drop like a stone— the market is overheated.
Alt gives 4-6-8% of clean movement, which is already great, but the potential is much bigger. The question is whether to leave it overnight or fully fix and look for new positions in the morning—everyone can decide for themselves. I locked in 50%, and I’ll try to pull the second half.
For the heavy ones, no changes—I’m positioned tightly. I want to see the implementation of the correction, although the liquidity densities worry me a lot, up to $87,000 on BTC.
Metals: XAU / XAG—gold and silver—I hold longs. You can set a take-profit at 3-4% of your TP/TVh.
Oil BZ—I’m holding a long, I’m at 2/4. If they give a correction overnight, I’ll add another 2/4.
SP500—the stock market has been “fiddling around” for over 130 days. My thoughts on this: what’s happening is a rebalancing of liquidity—we should see a correction. The question is when. I’m positioned tightly there as well, with the ability to add in case of manipulation above; it turned into a very long trade.
Monitor margin in your positions! Set stops! Fix positions in parts, especially if you enter right away at 4/4 on the working volume! Analyze, make decisions, and record interesting trades to gain experience and lock it in—not just profit!