The current market is in a weak rebound period after a high-level decline, with bears still dominating.
Below is a deep analysis and operational decision for the current 1H level:
1. Core indicators breakdown (1H level)
Price action (obvious resistance): ETH is currently fluctuating around 1954.59. From the chart, the price has shown a significant decline after reaching today's high and is attempting to build support around 1950. The key resistance level above is at 2038.27, and the support level below is at 1921.64.
Indicator “death cross” resonance:
Aggregated CVD (contract) indicator is in a clear downward trend, with the latest reading at -3.91M, accompanied by significant green bars (active sell orders) increasing. This indicates that at the position of 1950, the force of active selling is still stronger than the force of support.
Technical analysis summary: The overall 1-hour technical indicators show “Strong Sell,” with RSI (14) in the weak zone around 37, and MACD also continuously showing a death cross below the zero axis.
Trend-following short (catching the decline)
Entry logic: The CVD at the 1H level continues to probe the bottom, and retail investors' bullish sentiment is overly crowded (3.81), while large investors are slowly retreating. Currently, it is in a typical “long squeeze” precursor.
Operational advice: If the price retraces and tests the resistance area of 1965 - 1980 and the CVD does not effectively turn green, enter short directly.
Target: First target 1920, second target 1875 - 1880 (deep liquidity area).
Stop loss: Strictly set at 2010 (above the previous high resistance level).
Blindly chasing long positions is no longer advised.
Reason: Although there is support around 1920, the current CVD signals and long-short ratio data are extremely unfavorable for bulls. Before seeing the 15min level CVD volume turning V, bottom-fishing is likely to lead to “getting caught by knives.”
Core summary
The current ETH is in a “slow boiling frog” bearish trend.
1. Retail investors are too heavy: The account ratio of 3.81 is the biggest risk on the market, and the main force is highly likely to trigger a quick drop to “explode the bulls.”
2. Momentum exhaustion: The new low in CVD indicates that active buying has flattened, and the price relies entirely on limit orders to hold.
Advice: Prioritize looking for high points to short lightly. As long as the price does not stabilize above 2000 with volume, the bearish trend will not reverse.
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