张不烦

There’s a big boss in the strategy group # , so envious, watching my small holdings like three measly coins.

1-3 trades daily, decent win rate, feel free to come in and take a look at <a>#btc #ETH </a>

(Er Bing) $ETH My take
The hourly chart has climbed back above 2407, so the decline has paused for now. For a continued bounce, price first needs to chew through the trading range overhead. Only after a confirmed breakout and hold does it have a chance to test around 2524. If it can’t break through the range just yet, don’t rush; as long as 2407 holds, it can still hang in there. But if it also breaks below 2407, be cautious—it could plunge further.

For longs, consider a small position on the right side after a high-volume breakout above 2449, and exit if it falls back below 2449. Alternatively, you can go long if a retest around 2385 holds, but exit if 2357 breaks. If the hourly chart can hold above 2449, look first to 2499, then 2524.

For shorts, if 2433 breaks on high volume, you can try a right-side short; be sure to set your own stop-loss. Watch for shorting opportunities around 2499, and stop out if price pushes above 2534. If the 4-hour chart breaks below 2433, look first to 2385, then 2357.

For a left-side entry, you can go long if price wicks down around 2339; stop out if 2302 breaks.

Resistance levels above: 2449, 2499, 2534
Support levels below: 2433, 2385, 2357

(Er Bing) $ETH My view:

This drop was indeed very sharp, breaking straight through the previous low of 2407 and briefly touching around 2302 intraday. Although it closed with a long lower wick, that only means selling pressure has paused for now. A bottom hasn’t been confirmed, so don’t rush to treat this as a buy-the-dip signal.

Overall, the market still looks weak and is gradually trying to recover, but there’s no sign of a stable reversal structure. For now, no matter how it rebounds, I’ll treat it as a corrective pause within the downtrend. Until it holds above key levels, don’t assume the trend has turned.

The approach to going long is clear: don’t rush to bet on a reversal until key resistance has been reclaimed and held. Without confirmation of a bottom, it’s better to stay on the sidelines rather than jump in recklessly.

For a more cautious long entry, the price needs to establish itself firmly above 2406, then you can follow a confirmed breakout. Alternatively, if it pulls back to the previous low of 2317 and shows signs of stabilizing, consider buying on the dip. If it breaks below 2317, abandon the long idea altogether.

For a short-term long, follow through on the long side after a high-volume move above 2391, and cut losses immediately if the level fails. If a pullback holds at 2313, you can try a long; exit decisively if it breaks below 2281.

For a short-term short, if heavy selling breaks through 2358 and the rebound fails to recover it, follow the move lower—but be sure to use a stop-loss.

On the hourly chart, if the price can hold above 2391, the rebound could first target the 2406–2452 range. Near resistance around 2452, you can consider trying a short; exit with a stop-loss if it breaks above 2502.

For a pre-positioned entry, place a limit order to buy the dip at 2252, with a stop-loss if it breaks below 2224.

Resistance levels above: 2391, 2406, 2452
Support levels below: 2358, 2313, 2281

(Bitcoin) $BTC My view:

82303 was broken first. Price wicked below 81445 in a false breakdown, then recovered. The previous low at 80382 is still holding, so overall I’m still viewing this as a second retest.

A bullish engulfing pattern has appeared, so a short-term rebound is indeed likely. Price has also moved back above 82303, and I’ve entered a long position.

First, watch 83277 above; if it breaks through, then watch 84371. If price can’t get past 84371, the rise won’t be smooth.

As long as 80382 holds, this pullback should be more or less over. Don’t start calling for 76,000 or 60,000 every time price drops—if it really gets there, the trend will have changed.

For longs: if price breaks above 83105 on strong volume, you can enter on confirmation; more aggressive traders can also take a position, but be sure to use a stop-loss. If the hourly chart can hold above 83105, then watch 84371 to 85288 above. If it can’t hold, there’s no point.

For shorts: if price breaks below 82283 on strong volume and the rebound fails to reclaim it, you can enter short on confirmation. If the 4-hour chart breaks below 82283, then watch 81445 to 80382 below.

Resistance is at 83105, 84371, and 85288; support is at 82283, 81445, and 80382.

(Er Bing) $ETH My take:

Recently, the price dipped to around 2418 before being pulled back up. It feels very much like a second retest, and the hourly chart is showing both a double bottom and a channel breakout.

The key level now is still 2502: if the price can't reclaim it, the pullback hasn't really run its course. For the rebound to continue higher, it needs to break decisively above 2552. There's a lot of consolidation overhead there, so if it can't break through, this is probably just a rebound.

In the short term, watch 2451—if it gives way, the setup changes.

For longs: if the price moves above 2502 on strong volume, you can follow in on the breakout. If it falls back below 2502, exit quickly. You could also try a long if it retests 2418 and holds, but exit if 2381 breaks.

For shorts: if the price drops below 2466 on strong volume, you can follow in short on the breakdown; be sure to set a stop-loss. You could also consider a short near 2569, but stop out if 2609 breaks.

On the hourly chart, if the price can hold above 2502, the next levels to watch are 2552 to 2609. On the 4-hour chart, if it breaks below 2466, the next levels to watch are 2418 to 2381.

For an early entry, consider going long at 2358, with a stop-loss if 2314 breaks.

Resistance above: 2502, 2552, 2609;
Support below: 2466, 2418, 2381.

(Er Bing)$ETH My view:

The market is still leaning weak, and the rebound has very little momentum. 2553 is acting as a firm ceiling; unless price breaks through, don’t expect a smooth move higher. 2501 is still providing support below. If it breaks, things will only get uglier.

For longs: If price surges above 2552 on increased volume, you can take a long on the right-hand side. Cut it quickly if price falls back below. If it retests 2501 and holds, you can add another long; exit if 2452 breaks. Only consider targeting 2608–2664 after the hourly chart moves above 2552.

For shorts: If 2523 is decisively broken on increased volume, go short on the right-hand side, with a stop a little above. You can try a short near 2608; admit you’re wrong and exit if 2667 breaks. If the 4-hour chart breaks below 2523, look first for 2501–2464 to the downside.

For an early entry, you can try a long on a wick down to 2433; stop out if 2403 breaks.

Structurally, after the triangle breakout, price retested the upper trendline, but 2553 is still a lid—there’s no point trying to push higher if it won’t lift. As long as 2501 holds, price can continue to consolidate; if it breaks, the pullback will continue. If you want to go long but don’t want to chase, wait for a retest of 2501 and see whether there’s a signal before entering.

Resistance: 2552, 2608, 2664
Support: 2501, 2452, 2403

(Er Bing) $ETH My view:

In the short term, I still lean toward a rebound. The Morning Star candle didn’t close too badly, but price has been capped above 2500. If it can’t break through 2505, don’t expect a smooth move. The hourly chart needs to hold above 2505 first for the downtrend to pause; only then is there a chance of testing the 2538–2579 range. If it can’t hold above that level, the rebound is probably just noise.

For now, it looks more like price is consolidating. If it can’t get above 2505, and a retest doesn’t break below 2451, it will likely keep swinging between these two levels. If 2451 breaks, a second test of the previous low at 2408 is probably unavoidable.

If you want to go long, wait for a decisive, high-volume break above 2505 before considering an entry on confirmation. Put your stop at the pullback level after the breakout; if price can’t recover, get out. If there’s a clear reaction around 2438 on a retest, you could try a small long position, but don’t hold on stubbornly if 2402 breaks.

For shorts, if price breaks below 2469 on high volume and then can’t reclaim it on the bounce, you can enter short on confirmation, with your risk level clearly defined. You can also try a short near 2538, but if 2579 breaks, admit you’re wrong and exit.

For an earlier entry, if there’s a long lower wick around 2388, you could consider going long. Set a stop if 2358 breaks—don’t let wishful thinking take over.

One more reminder about timeframes: only look for 2538–2579 if the hourly chart holds above 2505; otherwise, treat any move as a false signal. If the 4-hour chart breaks below 2469, the next levels to watch are 2438–2402.

Resistance is still at 2505, 2538, and 2579; support is at 2469, 2438, and 2402.

(Part Two) $ETH take a look:

There are quite a few feints on the board. If your hands are too quick, you’ll get hit—don’t get excited and chase.

Yesterday I tried a strong push first. After 2701 touched, it didn’t hold; then I stabbed at 2745 and it fell back below 2701. A modified “evening star” formed at the high level, and the pattern doesn’t look quite right.

Now it comes down to whether the rising trendline holds: if it does, there may still be a chance to go back and test 2701; if it doesn’t, then first focus on 2639. If 2639 breaks again, 2566 is waiting below.

Going long: only go after a breakout at 2679 with volume on the right side; if it gets pulled back, cut. If it retraces to 2633 and you can confirm it’s supported, you can add once more; if it breaks below 2584, stop out.

Going short: if 2668 breaks with volume, then look to short on the right side; keep your stop loss tight. If it gives you 2745, you can short a bit first; break above 2786 and stop out.

On the hourly chart, as long as it holds above 2679, then aim upward at 2701 to 2745. On the 4-hour chart, if it breaks below 2667, then watch for 2638 down to 2611.

More left-side opportunities: for something like 2555 with a spike, consider going long; stop out if it breaks below 2510.

Overhead resistance zones: 2679, 2701, 2745
Support zones below: 2668, 2633, 2611

(The second cake) $ETH My view:

First the conclusion: Breaking through the 2700 integer threshold doesn’t mean it can just fly upward all the way if it didn’t—only a hold at the level counts. If you can’t stand your ground, it’s a fake breakout. Don’t get pulled in.

Right now the price is hovering between 2702 and 2743. Don’t treat it as a one-way trend and chase. If it keeps hovering a bit above 2702, you can lean bullish; first watch 2743—once it breaks, then look to 2787 and 2807.

Tonight’s lower limit is at 2702. If it retraces but doesn’t break, let it keep ranging. If it truly breaks, don’t hold on—then look downward toward 2637.

I don’t really trust the 2637 level. In the earlier push up, it didn’t even manage to touch the prior high at 2743. The rebound strength was clearly not enough. If the prior high isn’t broken, it’s easy for the price to step down again later. This area has been churned repeatedly, and the support has been eroded more and more each time it gets pressed. Unless it first takes out 2743 and then prints a new high, a return to 2637 is likely to break.

To go long: Wait for a volume-backed move to stand above 2725, then test again on the right side (i.e., after confirmation). Aggressive traders can enter earlier, but if there’s no volume, treat it as if you didn’t see it.

To go short: Look for a volume-backed breakdown below 2699, then follow on the right side. Don’t jump the gun—wait for the volume to show up.

If the volume isn’t right, don’t act. Use stop-losses and don’t get overexcited and increase position size all at once.

Hourly timeframe: If 2725 holds, watch 2743 and then 2787.

4-hour timeframe: If 2702 breaks down, watch 2655 and then 2637.

(Two cakes) $ETH My take:

First, look at the bigger direction: 2702. If price pushes up into this area and can’t hold after going up for a round, then basically the day’s ceiling has already been used. Don’t count on trying to hard push higher. The focus then shifts downward to 2635.

How to play the range:
If 2635 can hold, then treat it as back-and-forth between 2702 and 2635—don’t rush into a one-way move.
If 2635 can’t hold, the next key level is 2567. 2567 is the bottom of a large trading range (big box). Once it breaks, the hourly timeframe bulls are essentially over; don’t keep forcing it from a long-bias.

If you want to go long, watch these levels:
2664: If it breaks upward on strong volume, you can follow; after the push, if it drops back again, cut it.
A drop to around 2610 for a pullback: once you confirm it’s supported, consider entering. If it can’t hold and breaks below 2572, get out.
If the hourly chart can stabilize above 2664, then only after that does it have the “qualification” to look at 2702 to 2726.

If you want to go short, it’s straightforward too:
2647: If it sells off on strong volume and breaks downward, you can follow short—don’t skimp on the stop loss.
If price rallies up toward 2702, you can also try a short there, but if 2743 breaks, then acknowledge the mistake.
If the 4-hour chart breaks below 2647, then look down at 2610 and 2572.

Pre-positioning levels:
2556 can be set for a long; if it breaks 2507,撤 (cancel/exit).

Resistance overhead: 2664, 2702, 2726
Support below: 2647, 2610, 2572

(Bing) $ETH My take:

First, say it in plain language about the big picture:

Right now the price is stuck around 2702. Above it there’s a triangle pressing down, and also the line at 2702 is acting like a ceiling—so it’s basically two lids. As long as 2702 can’t be broken through, don’t expect a sudden breakout. Even if it bounces, it won’t jump very high; don’t imagine it will surge straight up.

If you want to go long, watch these levels:
Go long only if it rises on strong volume and closes above 2708, and then holds steady—then you can chase. This is what we call a right-side entry. If it goes above and then quickly falls back, cut losses immediately; don’t stubbornly hold.
If it first dips and stamps down toward around 2648 and can hold there, you may also consider entering long. But if it directly breaks down through 2610, then for this leg, don’t do long trades.

On the hourly chart, if it can stabilize above 2708, then the upside targets are 2748 first, and further out 2788.

If you want to go short, look at these two spots:
If 2689 is broken down on strong volume, and then any bounce fails to reclaim it, then short again—also wait for right-side confirmation.
If it first rallies toward around 2788, you can consider shorting too, but if 2809 breaks, don’t short; exit and stop out.

On the 4-hour chart, if price falls below 2689, then the downside looks first at 2648, and further down at 2610.

If it turns into a range:
As long as pullbacks don’t break 2635, it will most likely churn back and forth between 2702 and 2635—don’t rush to chase direction.

If you want to bottom-fish earlier:
A setup like a sharp wick down followed by a quick reclaim, with a stop loss at 2555. This is more aggressive—control your position size yourself.

Key levels above: 2708, 2748, 2788
Key floors below: 2689, 2648, 2610

One sentence to remember: If 2702 can’t be broken, don’t fantasize about a big rally. Once you reach the levels, act—but without confirmation, don’t go all-in early.

(Double Pie) $ETH My take:

First, speak like a human—don’t mess around with all that mystical stuff.

Whether this wave can turn depends on whether 2703 can be recovered. If it can’t be recovered, then it’s weak—don’t keep telling yourself it’s about to have a big rebound. To look for higher levels like 2740, even 2784, you need to first break through 2698 with volume, and you must be able to hold above it. If it can’t hold, then those higher areas won’t be on the table.

As long as the trendline is still intact, don’t panic. 2636 might not be hit right away. Once the trendline is lost, most likely price will churn back and forth in the range from 2703 down to 2636. 2636 is the deadly spot for the short term: if you can defend it, you can grind it out; if it breaks structure, things get ugly and price may probe lower again.

What to do—keep it simple:

Push 2698 upward with volume, then go long again; if it falls back, cut.

Sell short when 2683 breaks downward with volume—don’t stubbornly hold.

If a pullback to 2636 confirms it can still hold, you can try going long; if 2601 breaks, exit.

Only if the hourly chart can hold above 2698 do you have the right to look toward 2740–2784.

Around 2744 you can try a short; if 2784 breaks, stop out.

If it wicks down to 2584, you can consider taking a long there; if 2558 breaks, accept the loss.

If the 4-hour chart drops below 2670, first watch for 2637; if that fails, then it’s 2601.

What’s overhead pressure: 2698, 2740, 2784
What’s holding it up below: 2683, 2636, 2601

One sentence: First sort out these immediate key levels—don’t start imagining the big market move ahead of time.

(Bing Bing) $ETH My take:

Bing Bing is indeed limp today—the channel didn’t hold, and it slid back into that old range of 2650–2568 and has been wobbling there. Don’t rush into copying trades yet; see whether it can stand firm here.

Right now I’m watching 2610. If the hourly close can’t get back above 2650, don’t talk about a reversal—first look at 2610. If you want a bounce, you need to first get past 2713; if it can’t, the bounce likely won’t get far.

If 2610 can hold, the bottom-position can still be kept. Once it breaks, reduce longs as needed—don’t fight the position. If 2610 is lost, then 2568 is probably also in question; it won’t just be an hourly-chart issue—this could turn into a higher-level move downward. Don’t take this lightly.

Trade it like this: break above 2649 with volume—go long on the right side, first target 2676–2703. Break below 2628 with volume—go short on the right side, looking at 2610–2568. Don’t act if there’s no volume—fakes love to clean up quick hands, so stop-loss must be in place.

On the 4-hour chart: once 2628 breaks, directly look at 2610–2568. 2670 is a hurdle. If it can’t reclaim it after three consecutive K-lines, the 4-hour target heads for 2520. If it can close back above 2670, things are fine for now—if it can’t, don’t stubbornly hold on.

On the daily chart, that small consolidation has also broken. It’s back in the larger box, and the structure is on the weaker side. Don’t rush to bottom-fish—wait for the signal before acting. Signals are more valuable than courage.

(Bing) $ETH My take:

2784—tap it and it feels soft underneath, while the upper part is like a wall; very hard. The hourly line surged out and then turned back and dropped again—basically a wasted trip with no real use.

Right now, I’m watching whether the area from 2703 to 2713 can hold. If it holds, there’s still room to breathe and make a move toward 2784; if it doesn’t, go first to around 2648 and wait for it to stabilize and stop falling.

This support is too obvious—the limit orders are stacked clearly. The main force either keeps whipping around near 2731 to annoy people, then pulls away after shaking them out; or it directly breaks through 2703 down toward 2648, first scaring people off before collecting.

If you want to go long, wait for 2737 to break through with volume, then chase on the right side; target 2784 to 2808. If you want to short, wait for 2715 to break with volume, then chase on the right side short; target 2648 to 2606.

If there’s no volume, don’t act randomly—sit and watch the show. A stop-loss must be placed; don’t stubbornly hold on.

Now looking at the 4-hour chart: as long as the range box from 2671 to 2359 hasn’t broken, treat it as nothing for now. If it falls back into it, the box still decides—just watch it from the center line at 2521. If 2671 breaks, then for short-term long positions, reduce a bit first.

(Second cake) $ETH My thoughts:

First, remember the levels clearly: 2758 on top is the lid, and 2712 is the “vital part.” If the lid can’t be taken back, the whole setup above is basically meaningless; once the vital part is broken, 2648 will likely need to be touched.

If 2712 breaks, chances are you’ll first test 2648, then after that you’ll return to 2648 and hover back and forth around the 2568 area. On the daily chart, price must first hold above 2708 before you have the right to look up at 3002; if it can’t hold, then keep falling back into the consolidation zone and grind slowly.

If you want to go long, wait for a high-volume breakout above 2751. After it breaks out, then follow; set the stop-loss directly below 2718—don’t force it. If the 1-hour chart can hold above 2751, then first look at 2785 to 2808 on the upside.

If you want to go short, wait for 2718 to break down with volume. After it smashes lower, then follow; set the stop-loss above 2751—don’t get greedy. Once the 4-hour chart breaks below 2718, the first target is 2703 to 2661.

Keep a tight watch on volume—breakouts without volume are basically fake moves. Set stop-losses in advance; don’t wait around and try to hold through it.

(Second Pancake) #ETH My take:

The second pancake has been testing higher again—are you still waiting for a big retreat tide? First, figure out the water situation clearly. Don’t use yesterday’s ideas and force it through the changes of today.

Why does this train of thought still focus on a pullback and going north? Look—when it keeps dropping again and again, it just doesn’t break down. What was previously lost became pressure above your head. Later, it was taken back again, turning into a defensive line beneath your feet. At the same water level, the effect has already changed, and your way of playing has to change with it. Going north is still the main line; going south, you handle it first as a small counter-surge.

Yesterday, at Diaoyou Home, the guys followed Big Brother. The 1000-jin big fish was landed. If you didn’t get it, no problem—just go to the homepage chat room and see how they spread the net to catch fish!

Now this trumpet mouth is opening wider and wider. When it hits the upper edge, it retracts. But the lower defensive line at 2612 is still holding—so don’t rush to assume it’s a big retreat tide. A push upward is one thing; truly breaking out is another.

Today, first remember two key barriers:

To the north: watch 2667. Only when the water volume keeps up and it can push through, then consider following the pole. If it breaks out and then immediately pulls back, withdraw this rod—don’t make excuses for it. If it can hold firm at 2667 within the hour, then above it first look at 2718, and then 2779.

To the south: watch 2641. You need to see volume being lost and an overshoot that can’t stand back up—only then consider moving south along with it. If the 4-hour chart also drops below 2641, then look at 2606 down to 2568 next. This rod is like a safety rope—you can’t save it.

Brothers, don’t have one candle go up and immediately switch to watching the north, and one candle go down and switch to watching the south. First see which side manages to carry the conditions through, then decide how to place this rod. If the water volume doesn’t keep up, then hold your hand steady.

(Big Dough) $BTC My view:

With this water level of Big Dough, do you still dare to cast your net to the south with your eyes closed? Brothers, the gate you had to pass has already passed many times. The backwash waves haven’t been confirmed yet, yet you’re in a hurry to block the water. Be careful—you might not catch any fish, and your net could get dragged away!

On the hourly and four-hour charts, the southern structure has already been disrupted. Right now, the main idea is to wait until the water level drops back, then look for opportunities to the north. Don’t constantly guess where the highest water level is.

If it can hold above 81300, then there’s still a chance to probe the higher ground ahead. If the daily chart can push through the gate at 82700 to 83000, then the upstream will have even more room.

But being bullish on the north doesn’t mean you should wildly cast your net right now. Today there are two routes—listen clearly.

To the north: wait for 81600 to break through with the water volume. Once the hourly timeframe can stand firm, then look at 82300 to 83400. If it can’t hold, don’t think about the big fish yet.

To the south: first wait for 81000 to leak down with volume. Only if it can’t climb back up afterward should you consider lifting your pole and joining in. Once the four-hour timeframe also confirms that level is lost, only then should the range 80003 to 79100 be considered downstream—and the safety rope must be tied tight.

Clarify this here: 81000 is the near-term signal of the water level retreat; 80003 is the key big dam below. As long as the dam hasn’t been lost, don’t see a slight drop and shout “full-scale flood release.”

If you really want to wait for the whole water area to turn, you still need to see the upstream waves above get pressed back in one gulp. If 80500 can’t be held and it can’t be recovered later, then the defense from 80500 to 81800 will be disrupted. Conditions aren’t fully met—don’t treat a small backwash wave as a major tide turning.

Second Dough is the same: don’t fixate on the butterfly-wing D point and decide that it’s guaranteed to retreat. Even if it doesn’t move downward, it may still keep pushing upward.

Second Dough: watch 2628 to the north, watch 2602 to the south. Only after the break confirms should you lower your pole. Since 2585 below hasn’t been lost, don’t rush to call a big retreat.

Brothers,守 position, and守 conditions too. If Big Dough hasn’t leaked below 81000, don’t rush to the south; if it hasn’t stood稳 81600, don’t chase for the north. Whichever direction the waves go, wait until it moves clearly before following—don’t struggle with your own bait against the water current!