$RIF The last 4-hour candlestick was smashed from 0.09455 down to 0.07204. In a single candlestick, the price dropped 24%. The upper wick pierced to 0.09645, and the lower wick went down to 0.07204. The amplitude is 25%. This is not a pullback—it’s liquidation-style selling.
Over the past five days, RIF has been drifting lower in a steady downtrend from 0.119. There were rebounds in between. The move from 0.067 to 0.094 looked pretty strong, a 43% bounce. But three days later, it returned to the starting point. The bulls tried three times, and all three times they couldn’t hold above 0.095. There is already a dense overhead pressure zone formed.
In the last 24 hours: -10.75%, trading volume 79.3 million, and 940 million coins traded. For a small-cap coin, this turnover rate is very high. Who is selling? Retail traders wouldn’t continuously dump with such synchronized timing. Sell on every rebound, the rhythm is as steady as if conditional orders were set. The chips are continuously moving from retail hands to institutions willing to take them—or in other words, from the long side to the short side.
The funding rate is -0.0178%. Shorts pay longs, but the price doesn’t rise—it keeps falling. This suggests short positions are already crowded, with so many shorts that they’re willing to pay just to keep shorting. In extreme cases like this, you also need to be careful about a violent rebound triggered by short squeeze liquidation. But that requires seeing a clear “stop-the-bleeding” signal. Right now, there isn’t one. The mark price 0.07298 and the current price 0.07278 are almost identical. Both spot and futures are pointing in the same direction—down.
The big-player footprints are very clear. The 21st 4h candlestick, with 670 million trading volume—more than four times the average volume. After the price was pushed to 0.05901, it snapped up in a V-shape, with a 15% lower wick. Someone is taking the bids. But picking up orders doesn’t necessarily mean going long—it could be shorts closing positions, or it could be big players collecting liquidity at low levels. Either way, 0.059 has become the short-term bottom. This level has been踩ed once; if it comes again, it may not hold.
The volume-price structure is textbook-level weakness. The rebound happens on shrinking volume, while the decline happens on expanding volume. In the stretch from 0.079 up to 0.094, the volume was only 8.9 million and 10.3 million. For the sell-off, the dumping candlestick had 17.11 million volume, and the last candlestick had 15.17 million volume. The longs lack strength, while the shorts are very active. If this structure doesn’t get repaired, the trend won’t reverse.
On the candle details: around 0.078–0.079, three 4h candles move sideways, forming a small platform. Then a single bearish candle breaks it directly. After the platform breaks, there is no pullback and confirmation—price simply continues downward. This is weakness stacked upon weakness. Overhead resistance levels are 0.09645, 0.09851, and 0.0897. Support levels are 0.07204, 0.06744, and 0.05901. The current price is already riding right along the most recent support. Break it, and it becomes a new low.
My take: bearish. The structure is broken, selling expands on volume, the funding rate is negative, and big players sell into rallies. If the 0.072 level can’t be held in the short term, it will likely test 0.067.
Nini’s plan: At the current price 0.07278, don’t go long. Keep falling until around 0.067—once you see a volume-backed stop-the-bleeding, try a small long position. Stop loss: 0.059. If it rebounds to around 0.082, short there. Stop loss: 0.089.
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