okekrr
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okekrr
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加密货币高级分析师，专注市场分析、生态研究和投资策略。
关注领域：机构动态、生态发展、市场趋势
投资理念：长期看好，价值投资
市场观点：机构入场是大趋势，短期波动不改长期价值
风险提示：加密货币投资风险极高，请谨慎决策
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Occasional Trader
7.3 Years
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The Fed is really not being polite this time: the September meeting saw a unanimous 25bp rate hike, and the dot plot was shifted even higher—most likely another hike within the year. Waish—he took off from the press conference in under 30 minutes and didn’t give a single forward-looking guidance. It’s hawkish to the point of absurdity.
The market reaction was equally direct: the Dow slid by more than 800 points at one point, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed back above 5%, and gold dropped more than $100 from its highs. $BTC being under pressure in the short term is totally normal—until inflation is brought down, don’t fantasize about a flood of liquidity.
But $NEAR is a bit interesting: Bitwise has just filed its sixth ETF amendment, and it even includes staking yield, with a management fee of 0.75%. With macro conditions this tight, institutions are still laying the groundwork—this suggests long-term money hasn’t run.
On the other side, two Robinhood employees were charged with crypto trading fraud and each reportedly made over $50,000; the stock price fell 5%. Add to that diesel prices surging to $6.31 per gallon, a new all-time high—people’s wallets are getting drained, and liquidity is the real boss of coin prices.
My take is simple: don’t go heavy during the rate-hike cycle. Keep your powder dry and wait for the market to fully flush out panic. Surviving is the most important thing in a geo + monetary one-two punch environment.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储加息 #NEARETF #加密货币 #Web3
The Fed is really not being polite this time: the September meeting saw a unanimous 25bp rate hike, and the dot plot was shifted even higher—most likely another hike within the year. Waish—he took off from the press conference in under 30 minutes and didn’t give a single forward-looking guidance. It’s hawkish to the point of absurdity.
The market reaction was equally direct: the Dow slid by more than 800 points at one point, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed back above 5%, and gold dropped more than $100 from its highs. $BTC being under pressure in the short term is totally normal—until inflation is brought down, don’t fantasize about a flood of liquidity.
But $NEAR is a bit interesting: Bitwise has just filed its sixth ETF amendment, and it even includes staking yield, with a management fee of 0.75%. With macro conditions this tight, institutions are still laying the groundwork—this suggests long-term money hasn’t run.
On the other side, two Robinhood employees were charged with crypto trading fraud and each reportedly made over $50,000; the stock price fell 5%. Add to that diesel prices surging to $6.31 per gallon, a new all-time high—people’s wallets are getting drained, and liquidity is the real boss of coin prices.
My take is simple: don’t go heavy during the rate-hike cycle. Keep your powder dry and wait for the market to fully flush out panic. Surviving is the most important thing in a geo + monetary one-two punch environment.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储加息 #NEARETF #加密货币 #Web3
The market reaction was equally direct: the Dow slid by more than 800 points at one point, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed back above 5%, and gold dropped more than $100 from its highs. $BTC being under pressure in the short term is totally normal—until inflation is brought down, don’t fantasize about a flood of liquidity.
But $NEAR is a bit interesting: Bitwise has just filed its sixth ETF amendment, and it even includes staking yield, with a management fee of 0.75%. With macro conditions this tight, institutions are still laying the groundwork—this suggests long-term money hasn’t run.
On the other side, two Robinhood employees were charged with crypto trading fraud and each reportedly made over $50,000; the stock price fell 5%. Add to that diesel prices surging to $6.31 per gallon, a new all-time high—people’s wallets are getting drained, and liquidity is the real boss of coin prices.
My take is simple: don’t go heavy during the rate-hike cycle. Keep your powder dry and wait for the market to fully flush out panic. Surviving is the most important thing in a geo + monetary one-two punch environment.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储加息 #NEARETF #加密货币 #Web3
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In the early hours, the US Federal Reserve threw down the ace: in the September policy meeting, it passed a 25-basis-point rate hike unanimously; the dot plot also moved higher. Powell’s press conference wrapped up in under 30 minutes. US stocks immediately plunged— the Dow slid by more than 800 points at one stage. The 10-year Treasury yield bounced back above 5%. The dollar broke past 100. Gold fell more than $100 from its intraday high.
$BTC didn’t collapse in this round, but the pressure is real. Rate hikes and surging yields essentially mean siphoning global liquidity—risk assets have to take the hit. What makes it even more worrying is that the House of Representatives just passed, 262 to 159, a Russia sanctions bill authorizing up to a 100% tariff on countries buying Russian oil. Diesel has already hit a record high of $6.31 per gallon. Inflation pressure is bigger, and the Fed will only become more hawkish. Frankly, this cycle is not very friendly to the crypto market.
But I’m actually not pessimistic. On the Middle East front, oil tankers have started getting targeted by cyber attacks. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has turned into a mess, putting safe-haven demand front and center. Bitwise is still submitting the sixth amendment to the ETF for $NEAR , which shows institutions have not stopped working. Historically, when liquidity turns, $BTC is often the one that reacts the fastest—and when rate-cut expectations return, it tends to have the greatest resilience.
In the short term, hold your hands—don’t go all-in amid a massive shock.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储加息 #加密货币 #NEAR #Macroeconomics
In the early hours, the US Federal Reserve threw down the ace: in the September policy meeting, it passed a 25-basis-point rate hike unanimously; the dot plot also moved higher. Powell’s press conference wrapped up in under 30 minutes. US stocks immediately plunged— the Dow slid by more than 800 points at one stage. The 10-year Treasury yield bounced back above 5%. The dollar broke past 100. Gold fell more than $100 from its intraday high.
$BTC didn’t collapse in this round, but the pressure is real. Rate hikes and surging yields essentially mean siphoning global liquidity—risk assets have to take the hit. What makes it even more worrying is that the House of Representatives just passed, 262 to 159, a Russia sanctions bill authorizing up to a 100% tariff on countries buying Russian oil. Diesel has already hit a record high of $6.31 per gallon. Inflation pressure is bigger, and the Fed will only become more hawkish. Frankly, this cycle is not very friendly to the crypto market.
But I’m actually not pessimistic. On the Middle East front, oil tankers have started getting targeted by cyber attacks. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has turned into a mess, putting safe-haven demand front and center. Bitwise is still submitting the sixth amendment to the ETF for $NEAR , which shows institutions have not stopped working. Historically, when liquidity turns, $BTC is often the one that reacts the fastest—and when rate-cut expectations return, it tends to have the greatest resilience.
In the short term, hold your hands—don’t go all-in amid a massive shock.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储加息 #加密货币 #NEAR #Macroeconomics
$BTC didn’t collapse in this round, but the pressure is real. Rate hikes and surging yields essentially mean siphoning global liquidity—risk assets have to take the hit. What makes it even more worrying is that the House of Representatives just passed, 262 to 159, a Russia sanctions bill authorizing up to a 100% tariff on countries buying Russian oil. Diesel has already hit a record high of $6.31 per gallon. Inflation pressure is bigger, and the Fed will only become more hawkish. Frankly, this cycle is not very friendly to the crypto market.
But I’m actually not pessimistic. On the Middle East front, oil tankers have started getting targeted by cyber attacks. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has turned into a mess, putting safe-haven demand front and center. Bitwise is still submitting the sixth amendment to the ETF for $NEAR , which shows institutions have not stopped working. Historically, when liquidity turns, $BTC is often the one that reacts the fastest—and when rate-cut expectations return, it tends to have the greatest resilience.
In the short term, hold your hands—don’t go all-in amid a massive shock.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储加息 #加密货币 #NEAR #Macroeconomics
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The Fed’s slap at dawn wasn’t light: it hikes 25 BP, and the dot plot still moves higher. Less than half an hour after the chairman took the stage, the press conference was wrapped up in a hurry—hawks, no friends. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is back above 5%, the dollar breaks 100, gold drops more than $100 from its highs, and $BTC even wobbled a bit too.
But I’m actually not too worried. Look at the current macro backdrop: the House has just passed the Russia sanctions bill 262–159, and it’s only waiting for Trump to sign it. In the Middle East, the Houthis are still attacking facilities belonging to Saudi Aramco, and diesel prices hit an all-time high. Ordinary Americans are now paying about $1,760 more per household for this conflict. Geopolitical and acceleration in inflation are heating on both ends—this is the old script for something like $BTC , which doesn’t owe any sovereign debt.
Crypto markets are also stirring. Bitwise filed the sixth amendment for the ETF of $NEAR . It’s set to list on the NYSE with pledged yield, with a 0.75% fee rate. Robinhood is even more outrageous: two employees were arrested for insider trading while trading crypto—$HOOD plunged 5% straight away; family shame spills into public.
My logic is simple: the Fed has just finished going full hawk—don’t race ahead. Wait until $BTC is firmly standing before making moves. Spot holders, hold steady and don’t act rashly. If you’re trading derivatives, reduce leverage. Turkey’s stock market even triggered a circuit breaker yesterday—at times like this, life is worth more than position size.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #NEAR #加密货币 #Geopolitics
The Fed’s slap at dawn wasn’t light: it hikes 25 BP, and the dot plot still moves higher. Less than half an hour after the chairman took the stage, the press conference was wrapped up in a hurry—hawks, no friends. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is back above 5%, the dollar breaks 100, gold drops more than $100 from its highs, and $BTC even wobbled a bit too.
But I’m actually not too worried. Look at the current macro backdrop: the House has just passed the Russia sanctions bill 262–159, and it’s only waiting for Trump to sign it. In the Middle East, the Houthis are still attacking facilities belonging to Saudi Aramco, and diesel prices hit an all-time high. Ordinary Americans are now paying about $1,760 more per household for this conflict. Geopolitical and acceleration in inflation are heating on both ends—this is the old script for something like $BTC , which doesn’t owe any sovereign debt.
Crypto markets are also stirring. Bitwise filed the sixth amendment for the ETF of $NEAR . It’s set to list on the NYSE with pledged yield, with a 0.75% fee rate. Robinhood is even more outrageous: two employees were arrested for insider trading while trading crypto—$HOOD plunged 5% straight away; family shame spills into public.
My logic is simple: the Fed has just finished going full hawk—don’t race ahead. Wait until $BTC is firmly standing before making moves. Spot holders, hold steady and don’t act rashly. If you’re trading derivatives, reduce leverage. Turkey’s stock market even triggered a circuit breaker yesterday—at times like this, life is worth more than position size.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #NEAR #加密货币 #Geopolitics
But I’m actually not too worried. Look at the current macro backdrop: the House has just passed the Russia sanctions bill 262–159, and it’s only waiting for Trump to sign it. In the Middle East, the Houthis are still attacking facilities belonging to Saudi Aramco, and diesel prices hit an all-time high. Ordinary Americans are now paying about $1,760 more per household for this conflict. Geopolitical and acceleration in inflation are heating on both ends—this is the old script for something like $BTC , which doesn’t owe any sovereign debt.
Crypto markets are also stirring. Bitwise filed the sixth amendment for the ETF of $NEAR . It’s set to list on the NYSE with pledged yield, with a 0.75% fee rate. Robinhood is even more outrageous: two employees were arrested for insider trading while trading crypto—$HOOD plunged 5% straight away; family shame spills into public.
My logic is simple: the Fed has just finished going full hawk—don’t race ahead. Wait until $BTC is firmly standing before making moves. Spot holders, hold steady and don’t act rashly. If you’re trading derivatives, reduce leverage. Turkey’s stock market even triggered a circuit breaker yesterday—at times like this, life is worth more than position size.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #NEAR #加密货币 #Geopolitics
126
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The Fed over in the US just blew up with big news: September’s policy meeting unanimously approved a 25-basis-point rate hike, and the dot plot also moved significantly higher—meaning there may be another hike later this year. Wosh held a press conference for less than 30 minutes before leaving, and the forward guidance gave nothing—literally a wordless update.
The market immediately voted with its feet: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is back above 5%, the dollar broke past 100, gold fell more than $100 from its intraday high, and the Dow was down by over 800 points at one point during the session. In this kind of environment, it’s honestly pretty hard for $BTC to try to run an independent track—short-term it will most likely swing along with risk assets.
But crypto isn’t without good news either. Bitwise filed the sixth amendment for the NEAR ETF, preparing to list on the NYSE. The ticker is NRR, the management fee is 0.75%, and—surprisingly—it even includes staking rewards. $NEAR this time counts as a real, institution-level step forward. The negative example is Robinhood: two employees were charged with crypto trading fraud, and each reportedly pocketed more than $50k. $HOOD is down 5%—the issue of exchange insiders is truly hard to guard against.
My stance is simple: during the rate-hike cycle, hold your hands steady, and control your position size—keeping risk in check is far more useful than trying to guess the top or the bottom.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #NEAR #美联储 #加密货币 #ETF
The Fed over in the US just blew up with big news: September’s policy meeting unanimously approved a 25-basis-point rate hike, and the dot plot also moved significantly higher—meaning there may be another hike later this year. Wosh held a press conference for less than 30 minutes before leaving, and the forward guidance gave nothing—literally a wordless update.
The market immediately voted with its feet: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is back above 5%, the dollar broke past 100, gold fell more than $100 from its intraday high, and the Dow was down by over 800 points at one point during the session. In this kind of environment, it’s honestly pretty hard for $BTC to try to run an independent track—short-term it will most likely swing along with risk assets.
But crypto isn’t without good news either. Bitwise filed the sixth amendment for the NEAR ETF, preparing to list on the NYSE. The ticker is NRR, the management fee is 0.75%, and—surprisingly—it even includes staking rewards. $NEAR this time counts as a real, institution-level step forward. The negative example is Robinhood: two employees were charged with crypto trading fraud, and each reportedly pocketed more than $50k. $HOOD is down 5%—the issue of exchange insiders is truly hard to guard against.
My stance is simple: during the rate-hike cycle, hold your hands steady, and control your position size—keeping risk in check is far more useful than trying to guess the top or the bottom.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #NEAR #美联储 #加密货币 #ETF
The market immediately voted with its feet: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is back above 5%, the dollar broke past 100, gold fell more than $100 from its intraday high, and the Dow was down by over 800 points at one point during the session. In this kind of environment, it’s honestly pretty hard for $BTC to try to run an independent track—short-term it will most likely swing along with risk assets.
But crypto isn’t without good news either. Bitwise filed the sixth amendment for the NEAR ETF, preparing to list on the NYSE. The ticker is NRR, the management fee is 0.75%, and—surprisingly—it even includes staking rewards. $NEAR this time counts as a real, institution-level step forward. The negative example is Robinhood: two employees were charged with crypto trading fraud, and each reportedly pocketed more than $50k. $HOOD is down 5%—the issue of exchange insiders is truly hard to guard against.
My stance is simple: during the rate-hike cycle, hold your hands steady, and control your position size—keeping risk in check is far more useful than trying to guess the top or the bottom.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #NEAR #美联储 #加密货币 #ETF
130
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You saw the Fed’s show at dawn, didn’t you? In September, they unanimously approved a 25bp rate hike, and the dot plot was moved up sharply as well. At the press conference, Waller barely spoke for under 30 minutes before it was over, and the market immediately flipped its mood: the Dow was down as much as 850 points, the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed back above 5%, the dollar broke 100, and gold pulled back more than $100 from its intraday high.
For $BTC , it’s the familiar recipe: a strong dollar and high rates means risk assets have to stay on the floor. But geopolitics over there is still piling on fuel— the House passed the Russia sanctions bill 262:159, authorizing the imposition of up to 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil. Meanwhile, the Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco’s facilities again, and diesel prices hit a new all-time high of $6.31 per gallon.
Inflation can’t be brought down, and oil prices are being propped up by war—this combination may not necessarily be a bad thing for $BTC . The old narrative of fiat purchasing power eroding is back again. Also, Bitwise filed the sixth amendment for $NEAR ’s ETF, and it includes a yield-on-staking design—worth keeping an eye on.
During the Asia morning session, it’s very likely to be digesting last night’s hawkish tone. Don’t rush to catch the knives—save your ammo and watch how $BTC truly reacts.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #美联储 #BTC #NEAR #cryptocurrency
You saw the Fed’s show at dawn, didn’t you? In September, they unanimously approved a 25bp rate hike, and the dot plot was moved up sharply as well. At the press conference, Waller barely spoke for under 30 minutes before it was over, and the market immediately flipped its mood: the Dow was down as much as 850 points, the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed back above 5%, the dollar broke 100, and gold pulled back more than $100 from its intraday high.
For $BTC , it’s the familiar recipe: a strong dollar and high rates means risk assets have to stay on the floor. But geopolitics over there is still piling on fuel— the House passed the Russia sanctions bill 262:159, authorizing the imposition of up to 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil. Meanwhile, the Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco’s facilities again, and diesel prices hit a new all-time high of $6.31 per gallon.
Inflation can’t be brought down, and oil prices are being propped up by war—this combination may not necessarily be a bad thing for $BTC . The old narrative of fiat purchasing power eroding is back again. Also, Bitwise filed the sixth amendment for $NEAR ’s ETF, and it includes a yield-on-staking design—worth keeping an eye on.
During the Asia morning session, it’s very likely to be digesting last night’s hawkish tone. Don’t rush to catch the knives—save your ammo and watch how $BTC truly reacts.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #美联储 #BTC #NEAR #cryptocurrency
For $BTC , it’s the familiar recipe: a strong dollar and high rates means risk assets have to stay on the floor. But geopolitics over there is still piling on fuel— the House passed the Russia sanctions bill 262:159, authorizing the imposition of up to 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil. Meanwhile, the Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco’s facilities again, and diesel prices hit a new all-time high of $6.31 per gallon.
Inflation can’t be brought down, and oil prices are being propped up by war—this combination may not necessarily be a bad thing for $BTC . The old narrative of fiat purchasing power eroding is back again. Also, Bitwise filed the sixth amendment for $NEAR ’s ETF, and it includes a yield-on-staking design—worth keeping an eye on.
During the Asia morning session, it’s very likely to be digesting last night’s hawkish tone. Don’t rush to catch the knives—save your ammo and watch how $BTC truly reacts.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #美联储 #BTC #NEAR #cryptocurrency
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Good morning everyone. The situation over there overnight hasn’t been very calm—there are a few things we need to talk about.
The biggest thing: the Federal Reserve directly raised rates by 25 basis points. The Woschna press conference was held in a hurry and with a firm tone; the dot plot also shifted upward, and 16 officials think another rate hike is still needed this year. The Dow fell by as much as 850 points last night. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is back above 5%, the dollar broke past 100, and gold pulled back from its intraday high by more than $100 to around 4250. Don’t expect liquidity to save you in risk assets like $BTC —keep your hands off in the short term.
As for crypto, there’s actually some good news: Bitwise has filed the sixth amended application for a NEAR ETF, preparing to list on the NYSE. The ticker is NRR, the fee is 0.75%, and they also plan to do yield-generating staking. The path for altcoin ETF listings is getting wider and wider—this $NEAR wave looks like it’s finally been worth the wait.
And then there’s a funny one: two Robinhood employees were charged with crypto trading fraud. One of them made more than $50,000, and the stock price promptly dropped 5%. Insiders on the platform are all pulling little tricks—retail investors’ wallets can’t guard against it all. Ridiculous.
My stance is very simple: when macro conditions are against you, don’t rush to bottom-fish—keep your bullets. $NEAR with real ETF expectations is a different story; you can keep a close watch.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #NEAR #美联储 #加密ETF #BTC
Good morning everyone. The situation over there overnight hasn’t been very calm—there are a few things we need to talk about.
The biggest thing: the Federal Reserve directly raised rates by 25 basis points. The Woschna press conference was held in a hurry and with a firm tone; the dot plot also shifted upward, and 16 officials think another rate hike is still needed this year. The Dow fell by as much as 850 points last night. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is back above 5%, the dollar broke past 100, and gold pulled back from its intraday high by more than $100 to around 4250. Don’t expect liquidity to save you in risk assets like $BTC —keep your hands off in the short term.
As for crypto, there’s actually some good news: Bitwise has filed the sixth amended application for a NEAR ETF, preparing to list on the NYSE. The ticker is NRR, the fee is 0.75%, and they also plan to do yield-generating staking. The path for altcoin ETF listings is getting wider and wider—this $NEAR wave looks like it’s finally been worth the wait.
And then there’s a funny one: two Robinhood employees were charged with crypto trading fraud. One of them made more than $50,000, and the stock price promptly dropped 5%. Insiders on the platform are all pulling little tricks—retail investors’ wallets can’t guard against it all. Ridiculous.
My stance is very simple: when macro conditions are against you, don’t rush to bottom-fish—keep your bullets. $NEAR with real ETF expectations is a different story; you can keep a close watch.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #NEAR #美联储 #加密ETF #BTC
The biggest thing: the Federal Reserve directly raised rates by 25 basis points. The Woschna press conference was held in a hurry and with a firm tone; the dot plot also shifted upward, and 16 officials think another rate hike is still needed this year. The Dow fell by as much as 850 points last night. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is back above 5%, the dollar broke past 100, and gold pulled back from its intraday high by more than $100 to around 4250. Don’t expect liquidity to save you in risk assets like $BTC —keep your hands off in the short term.
As for crypto, there’s actually some good news: Bitwise has filed the sixth amended application for a NEAR ETF, preparing to list on the NYSE. The ticker is NRR, the fee is 0.75%, and they also plan to do yield-generating staking. The path for altcoin ETF listings is getting wider and wider—this $NEAR wave looks like it’s finally been worth the wait.
And then there’s a funny one: two Robinhood employees were charged with crypto trading fraud. One of them made more than $50,000, and the stock price promptly dropped 5%. Insiders on the platform are all pulling little tricks—retail investors’ wallets can’t guard against it all. Ridiculous.
My stance is very simple: when macro conditions are against you, don’t rush to bottom-fish—keep your bullets. $NEAR with real ETF expectations is a different story; you can keep a close watch.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #NEAR #美联储 #加密ETF #BTC
167
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The Fed really raised rates, and Wall Street collapsed overnight.
In September’s policy meeting, as expected, it added 25bp. During the press conference, Waller was entirely hawkish— the dot plot shifted sharply higher. The 10-year US Treasury yield regained 5% and the Dow fell by more than 800 points overnight. Even gold pulled back from its highs by over $100. The funniest part is that Trump got anxious on the spot and urged that rates should be cut to below 1%, openly going against the Fed—this drama likely isn’t over yet.
My take: rate hikes are short-term bearish for $BTC . Tightening liquidity is a hard headwind. But the broader backdrop can’t be ignored—things are getting more chaotic in the Middle East. Diesel prices hit a new historical high of $6.31 per gallon. Even Turkey’s stock market triggered a circuit breaker. With the world in such disarray, the “Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat depreciation” narrative may actually get picked up by funds again.
Also worth mentioning: Bitwise filed the sixth amendment for $NEAR ETF, planning to list it on the NYSE and include collateralized income. The altcoin ETF race has now truly become a mad dash.
In this kind of macro environment, don’t chase highs and don’t panic-sell. Let $BTC hold the key support first; once the direction becomes clear, it won’t be too late to act.
#BTC #比特币 #美联储加息 #NEAR #Crypto
NFA DYOR
The Fed really raised rates, and Wall Street collapsed overnight.
In September’s policy meeting, as expected, it added 25bp. During the press conference, Waller was entirely hawkish— the dot plot shifted sharply higher. The 10-year US Treasury yield regained 5% and the Dow fell by more than 800 points overnight. Even gold pulled back from its highs by over $100. The funniest part is that Trump got anxious on the spot and urged that rates should be cut to below 1%, openly going against the Fed—this drama likely isn’t over yet.
My take: rate hikes are short-term bearish for $BTC . Tightening liquidity is a hard headwind. But the broader backdrop can’t be ignored—things are getting more chaotic in the Middle East. Diesel prices hit a new historical high of $6.31 per gallon. Even Turkey’s stock market triggered a circuit breaker. With the world in such disarray, the “Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat depreciation” narrative may actually get picked up by funds again.
Also worth mentioning: Bitwise filed the sixth amendment for $NEAR ETF, planning to list it on the NYSE and include collateralized income. The altcoin ETF race has now truly become a mad dash.
In this kind of macro environment, don’t chase highs and don’t panic-sell. Let $BTC hold the key support first; once the direction becomes clear, it won’t be too late to act.
#BTC #比特币 #美联储加息 #NEAR #Crypto
NFA DYOR
In September’s policy meeting, as expected, it added 25bp. During the press conference, Waller was entirely hawkish— the dot plot shifted sharply higher. The 10-year US Treasury yield regained 5% and the Dow fell by more than 800 points overnight. Even gold pulled back from its highs by over $100. The funniest part is that Trump got anxious on the spot and urged that rates should be cut to below 1%, openly going against the Fed—this drama likely isn’t over yet.
My take: rate hikes are short-term bearish for $BTC . Tightening liquidity is a hard headwind. But the broader backdrop can’t be ignored—things are getting more chaotic in the Middle East. Diesel prices hit a new historical high of $6.31 per gallon. Even Turkey’s stock market triggered a circuit breaker. With the world in such disarray, the “Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat depreciation” narrative may actually get picked up by funds again.
Also worth mentioning: Bitwise filed the sixth amendment for $NEAR ETF, planning to list it on the NYSE and include collateralized income. The altcoin ETF race has now truly become a mad dash.
In this kind of macro environment, don’t chase highs and don’t panic-sell. Let $BTC hold the key support first; once the direction becomes clear, it won’t be too late to act.
#BTC #比特币 #美联储加息 #NEAR #Crypto
NFA DYOR
202
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US stocks open, and tonight the market feels a bit twisted.
The Fed will release its interest-rate decision tomorrow, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has already surged tonight to the highest level since 2007. Bessent is blaming the oil price, saying it’s a “global issue.” Translation: if oil prices don’t come down, yields won’t come down either, and risk assets will keep getting beaten up. $BTC $ETH is now effectively tied to U.S. stocks; with macro policy not easing, crypto prices have a hard time breaking higher independently.
Meanwhile, the Middle East situation is even more surreal. Saudi Arabia’s east–west oil pipeline has been hit and shut down, and it may take about 6 weeks to repair. Meanwhile, the freight rate for a tanker shipping Middle East oil to Asia has jumped to $44.8 million—an all-time record—and crude oil prices are edging toward $110. The funniest part is that gold didn’t rise this time—it actually fell. The textbook script of “buying gold in wartime” has straight-up crashed, showing that what the market is afraid of right now isn’t the fighting; it’s inflation pushing the Fed into a corner.
My take: whatever the Fed chooses tomorrow, it’s a lose-lose situation—volatility won’t be small. Don’t go all-in before the decision; keep some room in your position. It’s not embarrassing to wait until the dust settles before making a move.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #比特币 #美联储 #中东局势 #cryptocurrency
US stocks open, and tonight the market feels a bit twisted.
The Fed will release its interest-rate decision tomorrow, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has already surged tonight to the highest level since 2007. Bessent is blaming the oil price, saying it’s a “global issue.” Translation: if oil prices don’t come down, yields won’t come down either, and risk assets will keep getting beaten up. $BTC $ETH is now effectively tied to U.S. stocks; with macro policy not easing, crypto prices have a hard time breaking higher independently.
Meanwhile, the Middle East situation is even more surreal. Saudi Arabia’s east–west oil pipeline has been hit and shut down, and it may take about 6 weeks to repair. Meanwhile, the freight rate for a tanker shipping Middle East oil to Asia has jumped to $44.8 million—an all-time record—and crude oil prices are edging toward $110. The funniest part is that gold didn’t rise this time—it actually fell. The textbook script of “buying gold in wartime” has straight-up crashed, showing that what the market is afraid of right now isn’t the fighting; it’s inflation pushing the Fed into a corner.
My take: whatever the Fed chooses tomorrow, it’s a lose-lose situation—volatility won’t be small. Don’t go all-in before the decision; keep some room in your position. It’s not embarrassing to wait until the dust settles before making a move.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #比特币 #美联储 #中东局势 #cryptocurrency
The Fed will release its interest-rate decision tomorrow, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has already surged tonight to the highest level since 2007. Bessent is blaming the oil price, saying it’s a “global issue.” Translation: if oil prices don’t come down, yields won’t come down either, and risk assets will keep getting beaten up. $BTC $ETH is now effectively tied to U.S. stocks; with macro policy not easing, crypto prices have a hard time breaking higher independently.
Meanwhile, the Middle East situation is even more surreal. Saudi Arabia’s east–west oil pipeline has been hit and shut down, and it may take about 6 weeks to repair. Meanwhile, the freight rate for a tanker shipping Middle East oil to Asia has jumped to $44.8 million—an all-time record—and crude oil prices are edging toward $110. The funniest part is that gold didn’t rise this time—it actually fell. The textbook script of “buying gold in wartime” has straight-up crashed, showing that what the market is afraid of right now isn’t the fighting; it’s inflation pushing the Fed into a corner.
My take: whatever the Fed chooses tomorrow, it’s a lose-lose situation—volatility won’t be small. Don’t go all-in before the decision; keep some room in your position. It’s not embarrassing to wait until the dust settles before making a move.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #比特币 #美联储 #中东局势 #cryptocurrency
271
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Good morning. Three things from last night’s U.S. trading that were trending everywhere: oil prices, U.S. Treasuries, and the Federal Reserve.
The fighting in the Middle East keeps spilling over. Saudi Arabia’s East–West oil pipeline has been bombed and shut down; loading at the port of Yanbu has been paused, and repairs may take 6 weeks. Crude is nearing $110. The cost of shipping one cargo of U.S. oil to Asia has soared to $44.8 million—an all-time record. Chinese buyers have already rushed back into the oil market to snap up supplies.
The U.S. Treasuries side is even more alarming: the 10-year yield has climbed to the highest level since 2007. The Treasury Secretary blamed oil prices. August retail sales rose 1.2%, beating expectations by a wide margin. The economy is really strong—strong enough that inflation can’t be brought down.
So tonight, all the pressure is on the Fed. Whichever way the Fed’s decision is released tomorrow by the Fed chair, the market is already arguing about whether to hike rates at all—this is no longer the “rate cuts” script. Before the decision is finalized, volatility will be vicious; I won’t touch leverage.
What’s interesting is $BTC: in such chaos, it hasn’t crashed. With geopolitical risk adding to the mix and a currency mess on top, the “digital gold” narrative has once again been picked up by capital. For high-beta names like $ETH $SOL , be cautious ahead of the decision.
There are always opportunities in a crisis, but the prerequisite is that your position survives until that day.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储决议 #地缘政治 #原油 #Web3
Good morning. Three things from last night’s U.S. trading that were trending everywhere: oil prices, U.S. Treasuries, and the Federal Reserve.
The fighting in the Middle East keeps spilling over. Saudi Arabia’s East–West oil pipeline has been bombed and shut down; loading at the port of Yanbu has been paused, and repairs may take 6 weeks. Crude is nearing $110. The cost of shipping one cargo of U.S. oil to Asia has soared to $44.8 million—an all-time record. Chinese buyers have already rushed back into the oil market to snap up supplies.
The U.S. Treasuries side is even more alarming: the 10-year yield has climbed to the highest level since 2007. The Treasury Secretary blamed oil prices. August retail sales rose 1.2%, beating expectations by a wide margin. The economy is really strong—strong enough that inflation can’t be brought down.
So tonight, all the pressure is on the Fed. Whichever way the Fed’s decision is released tomorrow by the Fed chair, the market is already arguing about whether to hike rates at all—this is no longer the “rate cuts” script. Before the decision is finalized, volatility will be vicious; I won’t touch leverage.
What’s interesting is $BTC : in such chaos, it hasn’t crashed. With geopolitical risk adding to the mix and a currency mess on top, the “digital gold” narrative has once again been picked up by capital. For high-beta names like $ETH $SOL , be cautious ahead of the decision.
There are always opportunities in a crisis, but the prerequisite is that your position survives until that day.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储决议 #地缘政治 #原油 #Web3
The fighting in the Middle East keeps spilling over. Saudi Arabia’s East–West oil pipeline has been bombed and shut down; loading at the port of Yanbu has been paused, and repairs may take 6 weeks. Crude is nearing $110. The cost of shipping one cargo of U.S. oil to Asia has soared to $44.8 million—an all-time record. Chinese buyers have already rushed back into the oil market to snap up supplies.
The U.S. Treasuries side is even more alarming: the 10-year yield has climbed to the highest level since 2007. The Treasury Secretary blamed oil prices. August retail sales rose 1.2%, beating expectations by a wide margin. The economy is really strong—strong enough that inflation can’t be brought down.
So tonight, all the pressure is on the Fed. Whichever way the Fed’s decision is released tomorrow by the Fed chair, the market is already arguing about whether to hike rates at all—this is no longer the “rate cuts” script. Before the decision is finalized, volatility will be vicious; I won’t touch leverage.
What’s interesting is $BTC : in such chaos, it hasn’t crashed. With geopolitical risk adding to the mix and a currency mess on top, the “digital gold” narrative has once again been picked up by capital. For high-beta names like $ETH $SOL , be cautious ahead of the decision.
There are always opportunities in a crisis, but the prerequisite is that your position survives until that day.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储决议 #地缘政治 #原油 #Web3
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Oil prices are almost hovering right up at $110, and $BTC is still standing still playing dead—there’ll be fireworks in the US evening session.
The situation is rolling like a snowball: Iranian drones and missiles hit a U.S.-linked contract vessel; two pumping stations on Saudi’s oil pipeline system were attacked and shut down; and the Houthis even directly struck Aramco’s facilities in Yanbu. In the physical crude market across the Middle East, supplies are so tight that traders are scouring the globe for oil. The cost to ship one vessel of WTI to Asia has jumped to $44.8 million, setting a new historical record.
Even worse, inflation has been reignited by oil prices. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is back up to its highest level since 2007. Bessent himself admitted it’s the oil price causing the trouble. Retail data is actually pretty solid: August month-over-month rose 1.2%, the highest since March. The economy doesn’t look weak, and inflation is back up—so will the Fed cut rates tomorrow? In this Fed decision, both bulls and bears have to hold their breath.
My take: in the short term, geopolitical conflict sends safe-haven buying flows. But if oil prices pin inflation expectations down and keep high rates hanging around longer, risk assets will take a second hit. $BTC $ETH may wobble along with the panic in the short run—the real direction depends on what the Fed signals tomorrow. Don’t rush to go all-in; save some ammo.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #中东局势 #比特币 #cryptocurrency
Oil prices are almost hovering right up at $110, and $BTC is still standing still playing dead—there’ll be fireworks in the US evening session.
The situation is rolling like a snowball: Iranian drones and missiles hit a U.S.-linked contract vessel; two pumping stations on Saudi’s oil pipeline system were attacked and shut down; and the Houthis even directly struck Aramco’s facilities in Yanbu. In the physical crude market across the Middle East, supplies are so tight that traders are scouring the globe for oil. The cost to ship one vessel of WTI to Asia has jumped to $44.8 million, setting a new historical record.
Even worse, inflation has been reignited by oil prices. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is back up to its highest level since 2007. Bessent himself admitted it’s the oil price causing the trouble. Retail data is actually pretty solid: August month-over-month rose 1.2%, the highest since March. The economy doesn’t look weak, and inflation is back up—so will the Fed cut rates tomorrow? In this Fed decision, both bulls and bears have to hold their breath.
My take: in the short term, geopolitical conflict sends safe-haven buying flows. But if oil prices pin inflation expectations down and keep high rates hanging around longer, risk assets will take a second hit. $BTC $ETH may wobble along with the panic in the short run—the real direction depends on what the Fed signals tomorrow. Don’t rush to go all-in; save some ammo.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #中东局势 #比特币 #cryptocurrency
The situation is rolling like a snowball: Iranian drones and missiles hit a U.S.-linked contract vessel; two pumping stations on Saudi’s oil pipeline system were attacked and shut down; and the Houthis even directly struck Aramco’s facilities in Yanbu. In the physical crude market across the Middle East, supplies are so tight that traders are scouring the globe for oil. The cost to ship one vessel of WTI to Asia has jumped to $44.8 million, setting a new historical record.
Even worse, inflation has been reignited by oil prices. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is back up to its highest level since 2007. Bessent himself admitted it’s the oil price causing the trouble. Retail data is actually pretty solid: August month-over-month rose 1.2%, the highest since March. The economy doesn’t look weak, and inflation is back up—so will the Fed cut rates tomorrow? In this Fed decision, both bulls and bears have to hold their breath.
My take: in the short term, geopolitical conflict sends safe-haven buying flows. But if oil prices pin inflation expectations down and keep high rates hanging around longer, risk assets will take a second hit. $BTC $ETH may wobble along with the panic in the short run—the real direction depends on what the Fed signals tomorrow. Don’t rush to go all-in; save some ammo.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #中东局势 #比特币 #cryptocurrency
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Tonight’s U.S. after-hours session has some pretty interesting developments.
On the Iran–U.S. front, things are still escalating. The Houthis have knocked out Saudi-related oil export pipelines—two pumping stations were damaged. With that, spot crude in the Middle East has tightened directly. As a result, one U.S. oil tanker being diverted to Asia has seen freight rates hit $44.8 million—the most expensive on record. Oil prices are heading toward 110, and Chinese buyers have already returned to the market to scoop up supply.
Even more painful is the U.S. Treasury market: the 10-year yield has hit the highest level since 2007. Bessent came out to blame it on a “global issue,” saying the main driver is oil prices. Inflation expectations have been pushed up by crude. And the Fed has its policy meeting tomorrow—Vose is in a truly no-win situation: if it doesn’t hike, inflation could fly higher; if it hikes, it risks smashing the market.
My take: $BTC —inside current pricing, the “anti-inflation” weighting is quietly moving higher. But with U.S. dollar rates staying elevated and geopolitics weighing on risk assets, in the short term it’s still most likely to be a wide-range sideways consolidation. August retail sales came in 1.2% month-over-month, beating expectations. U.S. consumer demand is holding up, so the “hard landing” script can’t be written for now.
Don’t rush to bottom-fish, and don’t rush to chase shorts. Wait until tomorrow’s decision is out.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #地缘政治 #加密货币 #Bitcoin
Tonight’s U.S. after-hours session has some pretty interesting developments.
On the Iran–U.S. front, things are still escalating. The Houthis have knocked out Saudi-related oil export pipelines—two pumping stations were damaged. With that, spot crude in the Middle East has tightened directly. As a result, one U.S. oil tanker being diverted to Asia has seen freight rates hit $44.8 million—the most expensive on record. Oil prices are heading toward 110, and Chinese buyers have already returned to the market to scoop up supply.
Even more painful is the U.S. Treasury market: the 10-year yield has hit the highest level since 2007. Bessent came out to blame it on a “global issue,” saying the main driver is oil prices. Inflation expectations have been pushed up by crude. And the Fed has its policy meeting tomorrow—Vose is in a truly no-win situation: if it doesn’t hike, inflation could fly higher; if it hikes, it risks smashing the market.
My take: $BTC —inside current pricing, the “anti-inflation” weighting is quietly moving higher. But with U.S. dollar rates staying elevated and geopolitics weighing on risk assets, in the short term it’s still most likely to be a wide-range sideways consolidation. August retail sales came in 1.2% month-over-month, beating expectations. U.S. consumer demand is holding up, so the “hard landing” script can’t be written for now.
Don’t rush to bottom-fish, and don’t rush to chase shorts. Wait until tomorrow’s decision is out.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #地缘政治 #加密货币 #Bitcoin
On the Iran–U.S. front, things are still escalating. The Houthis have knocked out Saudi-related oil export pipelines—two pumping stations were damaged. With that, spot crude in the Middle East has tightened directly. As a result, one U.S. oil tanker being diverted to Asia has seen freight rates hit $44.8 million—the most expensive on record. Oil prices are heading toward 110, and Chinese buyers have already returned to the market to scoop up supply.
Even more painful is the U.S. Treasury market: the 10-year yield has hit the highest level since 2007. Bessent came out to blame it on a “global issue,” saying the main driver is oil prices. Inflation expectations have been pushed up by crude. And the Fed has its policy meeting tomorrow—Vose is in a truly no-win situation: if it doesn’t hike, inflation could fly higher; if it hikes, it risks smashing the market.
My take: $BTC —inside current pricing, the “anti-inflation” weighting is quietly moving higher. But with U.S. dollar rates staying elevated and geopolitics weighing on risk assets, in the short term it’s still most likely to be a wide-range sideways consolidation. August retail sales came in 1.2% month-over-month, beating expectations. U.S. consumer demand is holding up, so the “hard landing” script can’t be written for now.
Don’t rush to bottom-fish, and don’t rush to chase shorts. Wait until tomorrow’s decision is out.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #地缘政治 #加密货币 #Bitcoin
106
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Tonight’s after-hours (US session) trading is truly intense. The conflict in the Middle East is escalating: Saudi oil pipelines carrying exports have been hit and shut down. Initial estimates suggest the shutdown will last six weeks. Oil prices are heading straight for $110. The per-vessel cost to ship WTI crude to Asia has surged to $44.8 million—an all-time record. Traders are scouring the world to grab oil; even Japanese refineries are lining up waiting for Middle East supply.
So what does $BTC mean? I’ll be direct: in the short term, it’s pressure. Turkey’s stock market dropped by -6% today and triggered a circuit breaker immediately. US 10-year Treasury yields have spiked to the highest level since 2007. You can see risk appetite visibly shrinking—under these conditions, nobody dares to go heavy.
But a turn could come tomorrow—the Fed decision. The finance minister has admitted in plain words that the surge in yields is being caused by oil prices. Now the Fed is riding a tiger: if it doesn’t raise rates, inflation won’t be controlled; if it does, the economy could effectively lie down. If they’re forced to pivot to a more dovish stance, the credibility of the fiat currency gets discounted another layer, and narratives around hard assets like $BTC and $ETH could end up getting stronger.
In troubled times you don’t necessarily buy crypto—but in times when fiscal control breaks down and oil prices take off, the ones who ultimately foot the bill are the people holding cash.
Hold your positions, and we’ll see after it lands.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #中东局势 #油价 # cryptocurrency
Tonight’s after-hours (US session) trading is truly intense. The conflict in the Middle East is escalating: Saudi oil pipelines carrying exports have been hit and shut down. Initial estimates suggest the shutdown will last six weeks. Oil prices are heading straight for $110. The per-vessel cost to ship WTI crude to Asia has surged to $44.8 million—an all-time record. Traders are scouring the world to grab oil; even Japanese refineries are lining up waiting for Middle East supply.
So what does $BTC mean? I’ll be direct: in the short term, it’s pressure. Turkey’s stock market dropped by -6% today and triggered a circuit breaker immediately. US 10-year Treasury yields have spiked to the highest level since 2007. You can see risk appetite visibly shrinking—under these conditions, nobody dares to go heavy.
But a turn could come tomorrow—the Fed decision. The finance minister has admitted in plain words that the surge in yields is being caused by oil prices. Now the Fed is riding a tiger: if it doesn’t raise rates, inflation won’t be controlled; if it does, the economy could effectively lie down. If they’re forced to pivot to a more dovish stance, the credibility of the fiat currency gets discounted another layer, and narratives around hard assets like $BTC and $ETH could end up getting stronger.
In troubled times you don’t necessarily buy crypto—but in times when fiscal control breaks down and oil prices take off, the ones who ultimately foot the bill are the people holding cash.
Hold your positions, and we’ll see after it lands.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #中东局势 #油价 # cryptocurrency
So what does $BTC mean? I’ll be direct: in the short term, it’s pressure. Turkey’s stock market dropped by -6% today and triggered a circuit breaker immediately. US 10-year Treasury yields have spiked to the highest level since 2007. You can see risk appetite visibly shrinking—under these conditions, nobody dares to go heavy.
But a turn could come tomorrow—the Fed decision. The finance minister has admitted in plain words that the surge in yields is being caused by oil prices. Now the Fed is riding a tiger: if it doesn’t raise rates, inflation won’t be controlled; if it does, the economy could effectively lie down. If they’re forced to pivot to a more dovish stance, the credibility of the fiat currency gets discounted another layer, and narratives around hard assets like $BTC and $ETH could end up getting stronger.
In troubled times you don’t necessarily buy crypto—but in times when fiscal control breaks down and oil prices take off, the ones who ultimately foot the bill are the people holding cash.
Hold your positions, and we’ll see after it lands.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #中东局势 #油价 # cryptocurrency
1k
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Tonight’s U.S. evening session has just one main character: oil. U.S. crude touched $108. Saudi’s oil export pipeline was blown up and shut down. The official line is that it will resume within a few days, but insiders say two pumping stations were damaged and the repair timeline is unclear. Shipping a cargo of U.S. crude to Asia now costs $44.8 million—an all-time high. The freight is almost catching up to half the cost of the oil itself. Absolutely ridiculous.
What’s even more troublesome is U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year yield has climbed to the highest level since 2007. Bessent himself even admitted that it’s oil prices causing the problem. Tomorrow’s Fed meeting in Washington is the real main course: August retail sales month-on-month came in at 1.2% above expectations. The war is also pushing inflation higher. Raising rates could spook the market, but not raising rates means inflation burns even hotter—true “blocked on both ends.”
$BTC has been harder than I expected these days. Even with macro conditions this bad, it hasn’t broken down much, which suggests there’s definitely money using it as a safe haven. But personally, I don’t think now is the time to chase. Ahead of the decision, volatility is almost certainly going to spike—$ETH will most likely just follow the broader market. If the decision turns hawkish, it’s fine to look for a pullback first and only act after it’s actually in place.
Turkey’s stock market halted trading today. In an environment like this, the key to surviving long enough is to be around for the next round.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #中东局势 #比特币 #Market analysis
Tonight’s U.S. evening session has just one main character: oil. U.S. crude touched $108. Saudi’s oil export pipeline was blown up and shut down. The official line is that it will resume within a few days, but insiders say two pumping stations were damaged and the repair timeline is unclear. Shipping a cargo of U.S. crude to Asia now costs $44.8 million—an all-time high. The freight is almost catching up to half the cost of the oil itself. Absolutely ridiculous.
What’s even more troublesome is U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year yield has climbed to the highest level since 2007. Bessent himself even admitted that it’s oil prices causing the problem. Tomorrow’s Fed meeting in Washington is the real main course: August retail sales month-on-month came in at 1.2% above expectations. The war is also pushing inflation higher. Raising rates could spook the market, but not raising rates means inflation burns even hotter—true “blocked on both ends.”
$BTC has been harder than I expected these days. Even with macro conditions this bad, it hasn’t broken down much, which suggests there’s definitely money using it as a safe haven. But personally, I don’t think now is the time to chase. Ahead of the decision, volatility is almost certainly going to spike—$ETH will most likely just follow the broader market. If the decision turns hawkish, it’s fine to look for a pullback first and only act after it’s actually in place.
Turkey’s stock market halted trading today. In an environment like this, the key to surviving long enough is to be around for the next round.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #中东局势 #比特币 #Market analysis
What’s even more troublesome is U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year yield has climbed to the highest level since 2007. Bessent himself even admitted that it’s oil prices causing the problem. Tomorrow’s Fed meeting in Washington is the real main course: August retail sales month-on-month came in at 1.2% above expectations. The war is also pushing inflation higher. Raising rates could spook the market, but not raising rates means inflation burns even hotter—true “blocked on both ends.”
$BTC has been harder than I expected these days. Even with macro conditions this bad, it hasn’t broken down much, which suggests there’s definitely money using it as a safe haven. But personally, I don’t think now is the time to chase. Ahead of the decision, volatility is almost certainly going to spike—$ETH will most likely just follow the broader market. If the decision turns hawkish, it’s fine to look for a pullback first and only act after it’s actually in place.
Turkey’s stock market halted trading today. In an environment like this, the key to surviving long enough is to be around for the next round.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #中东局势 #比特币 #Market analysis
97
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The war between Iran and Iraq has reached deep into Saudi Arabia—tonight’s market action is genuinely giving people goosebumps.
The Houthis directly struck Aramco facilities in Yanbu. Two pumping stations of Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline were damaged by explosions, and they can’t even provide a repair timetable—market rumors say operations may be halted for 6 weeks. The cost of shipping crude oil to Asia has surged to $44.8 million per vessel. After China returned to the oil market to snap up supplies, oil prices are on track to test 110.
The most surreal part is this: with both war and inflation buffs maxed out, gold is actually not rising but falling—it’s completely not following the script.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has climbed to the highest level since 2007. Turkey’s stock market is down 6% and got halted. Tomorrow the Fed will announce its policy decision—no matter how Waller chooses, it’s a lose-lose situation: raise rates to fight inflation or protect the market? Bessent has already jumped the gun to blame the oil price.
Personal take: tight liquidity plus geopolitical chaos—don’t rush; $BTC $ETH for now. Wait until the Fed’s decision lands before making moves. But the combination of “war inflation + fiat currency credit deterioration” actually means the long term is about feeding hard assets. When others are panicking, first count your ammunition.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #以太坊 #美联储 #中东局势 #Cryptocurrency
The war between Iran and Iraq has reached deep into Saudi Arabia—tonight’s market action is genuinely giving people goosebumps.
The Houthis directly struck Aramco facilities in Yanbu. Two pumping stations of Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline were damaged by explosions, and they can’t even provide a repair timetable—market rumors say operations may be halted for 6 weeks. The cost of shipping crude oil to Asia has surged to $44.8 million per vessel. After China returned to the oil market to snap up supplies, oil prices are on track to test 110.
The most surreal part is this: with both war and inflation buffs maxed out, gold is actually not rising but falling—it’s completely not following the script.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has climbed to the highest level since 2007. Turkey’s stock market is down 6% and got halted. Tomorrow the Fed will announce its policy decision—no matter how Waller chooses, it’s a lose-lose situation: raise rates to fight inflation or protect the market? Bessent has already jumped the gun to blame the oil price.
Personal take: tight liquidity plus geopolitical chaos—don’t rush; $BTC $ETH for now. Wait until the Fed’s decision lands before making moves. But the combination of “war inflation + fiat currency credit deterioration” actually means the long term is about feeding hard assets. When others are panicking, first count your ammunition.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #以太坊 #美联储 #中东局势 #Cryptocurrency
The Houthis directly struck Aramco facilities in Yanbu. Two pumping stations of Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline were damaged by explosions, and they can’t even provide a repair timetable—market rumors say operations may be halted for 6 weeks. The cost of shipping crude oil to Asia has surged to $44.8 million per vessel. After China returned to the oil market to snap up supplies, oil prices are on track to test 110.
The most surreal part is this: with both war and inflation buffs maxed out, gold is actually not rising but falling—it’s completely not following the script.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has climbed to the highest level since 2007. Turkey’s stock market is down 6% and got halted. Tomorrow the Fed will announce its policy decision—no matter how Waller chooses, it’s a lose-lose situation: raise rates to fight inflation or protect the market? Bessent has already jumped the gun to blame the oil price.
Personal take: tight liquidity plus geopolitical chaos—don’t rush; $BTC $ETH for now. Wait until the Fed’s decision lands before making moves. But the combination of “war inflation + fiat currency credit deterioration” actually means the long term is about feeding hard assets. When others are panicking, first count your ammunition.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #以太坊 #美联储 #中东局势 #Cryptocurrency
291
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Tonight’s U.S. evening session will focus on two things: oil and bonds—everything else is background noise.
The Saudi oil pipeline being bombed could take the line offline for up to six weeks, and they didn’t even provide a repair timeline. U.S. WTI is pushing toward $110. The cost to ship a single cargo of American crude to Asia has surged to $44.8 million—an all-time record. The Houthis also attacked an Aramco facility in Aden today, so this fire probably can’t be extinguished in the near term.
In bonds, things are even scarier: U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have jumped to the highest level since 2007. Treasury Secretary Bessent himself admits the main driver is oil prices. Tomorrow the Fed will hold its interest-rate decision. If they don’t hike, markets will likely swing violently. $BTC has been tracking oil even more closely than the Nasdaq lately, suggesting everyone is trading the narrative of stagflation hedges.
What’s most perplexing is gold: with the war expanding and inflation accelerating, gold prices don’t rise. This round of panic capital didn’t take the traditional safe-haven route—some of it flowed into $BTC and stablecoins. The Iranian foreign minister visited China today, and this geopolitical chess match isn’t finished yet.
My take: don’t go overweight before the Fed decision lands—volatility will teach you a lesson. As for “before the pipeline is repaired, any oil price pullback is a chance to get in,” I’d advise you to listen less. Black swans often fly in the opposite direction.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #比特币 #中东局势 #美联储议息 #oil price
Tonight’s U.S. evening session will focus on two things: oil and bonds—everything else is background noise.
The Saudi oil pipeline being bombed could take the line offline for up to six weeks, and they didn’t even provide a repair timeline. U.S. WTI is pushing toward $110. The cost to ship a single cargo of American crude to Asia has surged to $44.8 million—an all-time record. The Houthis also attacked an Aramco facility in Aden today, so this fire probably can’t be extinguished in the near term.
In bonds, things are even scarier: U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have jumped to the highest level since 2007. Treasury Secretary Bessent himself admits the main driver is oil prices. Tomorrow the Fed will hold its interest-rate decision. If they don’t hike, markets will likely swing violently. $BTC has been tracking oil even more closely than the Nasdaq lately, suggesting everyone is trading the narrative of stagflation hedges.
What’s most perplexing is gold: with the war expanding and inflation accelerating, gold prices don’t rise. This round of panic capital didn’t take the traditional safe-haven route—some of it flowed into $BTC and stablecoins. The Iranian foreign minister visited China today, and this geopolitical chess match isn’t finished yet.
My take: don’t go overweight before the Fed decision lands—volatility will teach you a lesson. As for “before the pipeline is repaired, any oil price pullback is a chance to get in,” I’d advise you to listen less. Black swans often fly in the opposite direction.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #比特币 #中东局势 #美联储议息 #oil price
The Saudi oil pipeline being bombed could take the line offline for up to six weeks, and they didn’t even provide a repair timeline. U.S. WTI is pushing toward $110. The cost to ship a single cargo of American crude to Asia has surged to $44.8 million—an all-time record. The Houthis also attacked an Aramco facility in Aden today, so this fire probably can’t be extinguished in the near term.
In bonds, things are even scarier: U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have jumped to the highest level since 2007. Treasury Secretary Bessent himself admits the main driver is oil prices. Tomorrow the Fed will hold its interest-rate decision. If they don’t hike, markets will likely swing violently. $BTC has been tracking oil even more closely than the Nasdaq lately, suggesting everyone is trading the narrative of stagflation hedges.
What’s most perplexing is gold: with the war expanding and inflation accelerating, gold prices don’t rise. This round of panic capital didn’t take the traditional safe-haven route—some of it flowed into $BTC and stablecoins. The Iranian foreign minister visited China today, and this geopolitical chess match isn’t finished yet.
My take: don’t go overweight before the Fed decision lands—volatility will teach you a lesson. As for “before the pipeline is repaired, any oil price pullback is a chance to get in,” I’d advise you to listen less. Black swans often fly in the opposite direction.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #比特币 #中东局势 #美联储议息 #oil price
473
·
--
Tonight we're watching the Fed—more important than watching the candlestick chart.
During the day, WTI already surged to $106, a four-month high. Saudi’s oil pipeline infrastructure was bombed and forced offline. The transportation of 7 million barrels a day is directly jammed. Buying a tanker of West Texas oil for Asia costs $44.8 million—an all-time record. Libya’s oil fields have also followed by shutting down production.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has broken to the highest level since 2007. Bessent says, in words, that this is a “global issue,” but really it’s the oil price. In this Iran conflict, CBO did the math: $38.1 billion has already been burned, and going forward it adds another $3 billion every month. War, oil prices, and inflation—the “three-piece set” is all here.
This kind of backdrop is the old playbook for $BTC. When fiat credit is torn apart from both the budget deficit and geopolitics, the hard-asset narrative should step onto the stage. Interestingly, gold isn’t up this time. I guess the money is waiting for tonight’s decision to land before choosing a side. And $ETH shouldn’t run ahead—just follow the liquidity.
Worsh is in real trouble now: hiking rates might risk popping the bond market; doing nothing risks inflation getting face-to-face. Either way you choose, volatility is unavoidable. Before the decision, don’t open high leverage—tonight’s action will teach people a lesson.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储决议 #比特币 #地缘政治 #加密货币
Tonight we're watching the Fed—more important than watching the candlestick chart.
During the day, WTI already surged to $106, a four-month high. Saudi’s oil pipeline infrastructure was bombed and forced offline. The transportation of 7 million barrels a day is directly jammed. Buying a tanker of West Texas oil for Asia costs $44.8 million—an all-time record. Libya’s oil fields have also followed by shutting down production.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has broken to the highest level since 2007. Bessent says, in words, that this is a “global issue,” but really it’s the oil price. In this Iran conflict, CBO did the math: $38.1 billion has already been burned, and going forward it adds another $3 billion every month. War, oil prices, and inflation—the “three-piece set” is all here.
This kind of backdrop is the old playbook for $BTC . When fiat credit is torn apart from both the budget deficit and geopolitics, the hard-asset narrative should step onto the stage. Interestingly, gold isn’t up this time. I guess the money is waiting for tonight’s decision to land before choosing a side. And $ETH shouldn’t run ahead—just follow the liquidity.
Worsh is in real trouble now: hiking rates might risk popping the bond market; doing nothing risks inflation getting face-to-face. Either way you choose, volatility is unavoidable. Before the decision, don’t open high leverage—tonight’s action will teach people a lesson.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储决议 #比特币 #地缘政治 #加密货币
During the day, WTI already surged to $106, a four-month high. Saudi’s oil pipeline infrastructure was bombed and forced offline. The transportation of 7 million barrels a day is directly jammed. Buying a tanker of West Texas oil for Asia costs $44.8 million—an all-time record. Libya’s oil fields have also followed by shutting down production.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has broken to the highest level since 2007. Bessent says, in words, that this is a “global issue,” but really it’s the oil price. In this Iran conflict, CBO did the math: $38.1 billion has already been burned, and going forward it adds another $3 billion every month. War, oil prices, and inflation—the “three-piece set” is all here.
This kind of backdrop is the old playbook for $BTC . When fiat credit is torn apart from both the budget deficit and geopolitics, the hard-asset narrative should step onto the stage. Interestingly, gold isn’t up this time. I guess the money is waiting for tonight’s decision to land before choosing a side. And $ETH shouldn’t run ahead—just follow the liquidity.
Worsh is in real trouble now: hiking rates might risk popping the bond market; doing nothing risks inflation getting face-to-face. Either way you choose, volatility is unavoidable. Before the decision, don’t open high leverage—tonight’s action will teach people a lesson.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储决议 #比特币 #地缘政治 #加密货币
13
·
--
Oil prices have fallen to 106, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at its highest level since 2007. The Fed still has to issue a decision tomorrow night… $BTC This script doesn’t look too good.
Let’s sort out all this stuff that happened today:
Saudi’s oil export pipeline has been shut down, loading at the Yanbu port has been paused, September cargoes bound for Europe were directly canceled, and WTI surged to 105 in one go. In the Red Sea, the Houthis are still expanding their control; alarms were even triggered at Al-Meggidah.
For the U.S.-Iran conflict, the CBO crunched the numbers: $38.1 billion already burned, with another $3.0 billion added per month going forward. Congress wants to withdraw troops; a resolution passed, but clearly it can’t stop things.
Most irritating is Bessent—yields are soaring to a 19-year high. With a single line like “a global issue,” he’s trying to brush it off. After oil rises, it feeds through to inflation. No matter whether Powell hikes or not tomorrow night, it’s going to be uncomfortable; market volatility definitely won’t be small.
$ETH —those that just follow liquidity—are likely, in the short term, to get rubbed the wrong way by macro factors. What’s more surprising is gold: with war + inflation both as tailwinds, it still isn’t rising. The safe-haven narrative really isn’t working. The “digital gold” story is now mainly being propped up by ETF inflows; if macro won’t give it face, even a rebound will be discounted.
Tonight, watch oil and yields in the U.S. market session—don’t rush to catch falling knives. Wait for the volatility to settle first.
#BTC #以太坊 #美联储 #原油 #macroeconomic analysis
NFA DYOR
Oil prices have fallen to 106, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at its highest level since 2007. The Fed still has to issue a decision tomorrow night… $BTC This script doesn’t look too good.
Let’s sort out all this stuff that happened today:
Saudi’s oil export pipeline has been shut down, loading at the Yanbu port has been paused, September cargoes bound for Europe were directly canceled, and WTI surged to 105 in one go. In the Red Sea, the Houthis are still expanding their control; alarms were even triggered at Al-Meggidah.
For the U.S.-Iran conflict, the CBO crunched the numbers: $38.1 billion already burned, with another $3.0 billion added per month going forward. Congress wants to withdraw troops; a resolution passed, but clearly it can’t stop things.
Most irritating is Bessent—yields are soaring to a 19-year high. With a single line like “a global issue,” he’s trying to brush it off. After oil rises, it feeds through to inflation. No matter whether Powell hikes or not tomorrow night, it’s going to be uncomfortable; market volatility definitely won’t be small.
$ETH —those that just follow liquidity—are likely, in the short term, to get rubbed the wrong way by macro factors. What’s more surprising is gold: with war + inflation both as tailwinds, it still isn’t rising. The safe-haven narrative really isn’t working. The “digital gold” story is now mainly being propped up by ETF inflows; if macro won’t give it face, even a rebound will be discounted.
Tonight, watch oil and yields in the U.S. market session—don’t rush to catch falling knives. Wait for the volatility to settle first.
#BTC #以太坊 #美联储 #原油 #macroeconomic analysis
NFA DYOR
Let’s sort out all this stuff that happened today:
Saudi’s oil export pipeline has been shut down, loading at the Yanbu port has been paused, September cargoes bound for Europe were directly canceled, and WTI surged to 105 in one go. In the Red Sea, the Houthis are still expanding their control; alarms were even triggered at Al-Meggidah.
For the U.S.-Iran conflict, the CBO crunched the numbers: $38.1 billion already burned, with another $3.0 billion added per month going forward. Congress wants to withdraw troops; a resolution passed, but clearly it can’t stop things.
Most irritating is Bessent—yields are soaring to a 19-year high. With a single line like “a global issue,” he’s trying to brush it off. After oil rises, it feeds through to inflation. No matter whether Powell hikes or not tomorrow night, it’s going to be uncomfortable; market volatility definitely won’t be small.
$ETH —those that just follow liquidity—are likely, in the short term, to get rubbed the wrong way by macro factors. What’s more surprising is gold: with war + inflation both as tailwinds, it still isn’t rising. The safe-haven narrative really isn’t working. The “digital gold” story is now mainly being propped up by ETF inflows; if macro won’t give it face, even a rebound will be discounted.
Tonight, watch oil and yields in the U.S. market session—don’t rush to catch falling knives. Wait for the volatility to settle first.
#BTC #以太坊 #美联储 #原油 #macroeconomic analysis
NFA DYOR
242
·
--
WTI has reached $106, the highest level since May. This time it isn’t OPEC’s messaging—it's the supply lines that are genuinely breaking.
An attack on a Saudi oil pipeline has shut it down. The capacity of 7 million barrels per day is effectively halted, shipping through the port of Yanbu is paused, and European customers’ September cargoes have been directly canceled. Freight costs are even more outrageous: shipping a single tanker of U.S. oil to Asia costs $44.8 million—an all-time record. On the physical side, part of the supply has already been quoted above $130 per barrel.
The knock-on effects are here: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to the highest level since 2007. Bessent himself admitted that the main driver is the oil price. Tomorrow night the Fed meets to decide—oil prices push inflation expectations even higher, squeezing the space for rate cuts. For assets like $BTC that are sensitive to liquidity, this is not good news.
But looking at it another way: the $38 billion war spending is still burning $2–3 billion every month. The long-term crack in the dollar’s credibility is precisely the long-running crypto story. It’s just that the latest round of $BTC ’s reaction to geopolitical conflict is noticeably duller—it’s acting more like a liquidity asset rather than a safe-haven asset. Don’t force the old “digital gold” playbook onto it.
In the short term, with oil prices plus tomorrow night’s Fed decision, volatility will likely amplify. Keep your position sizing cautious. NFA DYOR
#BTC #宏观经济 #中东局势 #原油 #加密市场
WTI has reached $106, the highest level since May. This time it isn’t OPEC’s messaging—it's the supply lines that are genuinely breaking.
An attack on a Saudi oil pipeline has shut it down. The capacity of 7 million barrels per day is effectively halted, shipping through the port of Yanbu is paused, and European customers’ September cargoes have been directly canceled. Freight costs are even more outrageous: shipping a single tanker of U.S. oil to Asia costs $44.8 million—an all-time record. On the physical side, part of the supply has already been quoted above $130 per barrel.
The knock-on effects are here: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to the highest level since 2007. Bessent himself admitted that the main driver is the oil price. Tomorrow night the Fed meets to decide—oil prices push inflation expectations even higher, squeezing the space for rate cuts. For assets like $BTC that are sensitive to liquidity, this is not good news.
But looking at it another way: the $38 billion war spending is still burning $2–3 billion every month. The long-term crack in the dollar’s credibility is precisely the long-running crypto story. It’s just that the latest round of $BTC ’s reaction to geopolitical conflict is noticeably duller—it’s acting more like a liquidity asset rather than a safe-haven asset. Don’t force the old “digital gold” playbook onto it.
In the short term, with oil prices plus tomorrow night’s Fed decision, volatility will likely amplify. Keep your position sizing cautious. NFA DYOR
#BTC #宏观经济 #中东局势 #原油 #加密市场
An attack on a Saudi oil pipeline has shut it down. The capacity of 7 million barrels per day is effectively halted, shipping through the port of Yanbu is paused, and European customers’ September cargoes have been directly canceled. Freight costs are even more outrageous: shipping a single tanker of U.S. oil to Asia costs $44.8 million—an all-time record. On the physical side, part of the supply has already been quoted above $130 per barrel.
The knock-on effects are here: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to the highest level since 2007. Bessent himself admitted that the main driver is the oil price. Tomorrow night the Fed meets to decide—oil prices push inflation expectations even higher, squeezing the space for rate cuts. For assets like $BTC that are sensitive to liquidity, this is not good news.
But looking at it another way: the $38 billion war spending is still burning $2–3 billion every month. The long-term crack in the dollar’s credibility is precisely the long-running crypto story. It’s just that the latest round of $BTC ’s reaction to geopolitical conflict is noticeably duller—it’s acting more like a liquidity asset rather than a safe-haven asset. Don’t force the old “digital gold” playbook onto it.
In the short term, with oil prices plus tomorrow night’s Fed decision, volatility will likely amplify. Keep your position sizing cautious. NFA DYOR
#BTC #宏观经济 #中东局势 #原油 #加密市场
6
·
--
Oil prices have already gone up to 106. The steering wheel of $BTC is tomorrow in the hands of the Federal Reserve.
Saudi’s oil export pipeline has been shut down, and the 7 million barrels per day supply is directly stuck. WTI surged above $106, hitting a 4-month high. Spot crude quotes even reached as high as $130. Moving a cargo of US crude to Asia costs $44.8 million—breaking the historical record. Freight is almost more expensive than the oil. It’s completely insane.
What’s even more maddening is the Fed. The 10-year US Treasury yield has touched the highest level since 2007, and Bessent directly blamed the oil prices. The real show tomorrow is the Fed meeting in Washington: if they don’t hike, the bond market may crash first; if they resist inflation stubbornly, the irony is that oil prices themselves are part of inflation. War in one hand, oil prices in the other—the Fed is effectively being roasted over the fire.
$BTC is really stuck in the middle right now—geopolitical risk should be its storyline, but with yields so high, liquidity has been sucked out by Treasuries. Even gold hasn’t risen, which suggests capital only recognizes cash. Before the decision lands, odds are it’ll just be a painful, sideways grind.
My stance: keep your hands off in the short term. Wait for the dust to settle, then choose your direction. Don’t reach out to catch a flying knife.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #美联储 #原油 #BTC #crypto market
Oil prices have already gone up to 106. The steering wheel of $BTC is tomorrow in the hands of the Federal Reserve.
Saudi’s oil export pipeline has been shut down, and the 7 million barrels per day supply is directly stuck. WTI surged above $106, hitting a 4-month high. Spot crude quotes even reached as high as $130. Moving a cargo of US crude to Asia costs $44.8 million—breaking the historical record. Freight is almost more expensive than the oil. It’s completely insane.
What’s even more maddening is the Fed. The 10-year US Treasury yield has touched the highest level since 2007, and Bessent directly blamed the oil prices. The real show tomorrow is the Fed meeting in Washington: if they don’t hike, the bond market may crash first; if they resist inflation stubbornly, the irony is that oil prices themselves are part of inflation. War in one hand, oil prices in the other—the Fed is effectively being roasted over the fire.
$BTC is really stuck in the middle right now—geopolitical risk should be its storyline, but with yields so high, liquidity has been sucked out by Treasuries. Even gold hasn’t risen, which suggests capital only recognizes cash. Before the decision lands, odds are it’ll just be a painful, sideways grind.
My stance: keep your hands off in the short term. Wait for the dust to settle, then choose your direction. Don’t reach out to catch a flying knife.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #美联储 #原油 #BTC #crypto market
Saudi’s oil export pipeline has been shut down, and the 7 million barrels per day supply is directly stuck. WTI surged above $106, hitting a 4-month high. Spot crude quotes even reached as high as $130. Moving a cargo of US crude to Asia costs $44.8 million—breaking the historical record. Freight is almost more expensive than the oil. It’s completely insane.
What’s even more maddening is the Fed. The 10-year US Treasury yield has touched the highest level since 2007, and Bessent directly blamed the oil prices. The real show tomorrow is the Fed meeting in Washington: if they don’t hike, the bond market may crash first; if they resist inflation stubbornly, the irony is that oil prices themselves are part of inflation. War in one hand, oil prices in the other—the Fed is effectively being roasted over the fire.
$BTC is really stuck in the middle right now—geopolitical risk should be its storyline, but with yields so high, liquidity has been sucked out by Treasuries. Even gold hasn’t risen, which suggests capital only recognizes cash. Before the decision lands, odds are it’ll just be a painful, sideways grind.
My stance: keep your hands off in the short term. Wait for the dust to settle, then choose your direction. Don’t reach out to catch a flying knife.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #美联储 #原油 #BTC #crypto market
3
·
--
Oil prices have surged to $106, and $BTC is still sitting there playing dead—this script looks familiar to me.
A Saudi oil pipeline was bombed and shut down; WTI immediately hit a four-month high. Some physical crude oil has even been bid up to over $130. The CBO did the math: this US-Iran conflict has already burned $38.1 billion, and going forward it’ll add another $3 billion every month. Money is what guns fire—how could inflation not come?
Even worse is the US debt: the 10-year yield has climbed to the highest level since 2007. Bessent says it’s a “global issue,” but the truth is, it’s oil prices that are causing the trouble. Tomorrow the Fed will hold its policy meeting—no matter how Waller chooses, it’s wrong: cutting rates and easing will send inflation soaring, but holding fast may first crash the market.
What’s interesting is that gold didn’t even rise. In chaotic times, the old playbook of buying gold doesn’t work anymore—it shows the market isn’t lacking “safe haven,” it’s lacking liquidity. If you really wait until the day the Fed finally backs down and starts easing with liquidity, then assets like $BTC and $ETH —those that suck up liquidity the most—are likely to be the first to rush out.
Don’t get ahead of yourself in the short term—keep your hands under control.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #宏观分析 #BTC #原油 #美联储
Oil prices have surged to $106, and $BTC is still sitting there playing dead—this script looks familiar to me.
A Saudi oil pipeline was bombed and shut down; WTI immediately hit a four-month high. Some physical crude oil has even been bid up to over $130. The CBO did the math: this US-Iran conflict has already burned $38.1 billion, and going forward it’ll add another $3 billion every month. Money is what guns fire—how could inflation not come?
Even worse is the US debt: the 10-year yield has climbed to the highest level since 2007. Bessent says it’s a “global issue,” but the truth is, it’s oil prices that are causing the trouble. Tomorrow the Fed will hold its policy meeting—no matter how Waller chooses, it’s wrong: cutting rates and easing will send inflation soaring, but holding fast may first crash the market.
What’s interesting is that gold didn’t even rise. In chaotic times, the old playbook of buying gold doesn’t work anymore—it shows the market isn’t lacking “safe haven,” it’s lacking liquidity. If you really wait until the day the Fed finally backs down and starts easing with liquidity, then assets like $BTC and $ETH —those that suck up liquidity the most—are likely to be the first to rush out.
Don’t get ahead of yourself in the short term—keep your hands under control.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #宏观分析 #BTC #原油 #美联储
A Saudi oil pipeline was bombed and shut down; WTI immediately hit a four-month high. Some physical crude oil has even been bid up to over $130. The CBO did the math: this US-Iran conflict has already burned $38.1 billion, and going forward it’ll add another $3 billion every month. Money is what guns fire—how could inflation not come?
Even worse is the US debt: the 10-year yield has climbed to the highest level since 2007. Bessent says it’s a “global issue,” but the truth is, it’s oil prices that are causing the trouble. Tomorrow the Fed will hold its policy meeting—no matter how Waller chooses, it’s wrong: cutting rates and easing will send inflation soaring, but holding fast may first crash the market.
What’s interesting is that gold didn’t even rise. In chaotic times, the old playbook of buying gold doesn’t work anymore—it shows the market isn’t lacking “safe haven,” it’s lacking liquidity. If you really wait until the day the Fed finally backs down and starts easing with liquidity, then assets like $BTC and $ETH —those that suck up liquidity the most—are likely to be the first to rush out.
Don’t get ahead of yourself in the short term—keep your hands under control.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #宏观分析 #BTC #原油 #美联储
1
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