The Fed is really not being polite this time: the September meeting saw a unanimous 25bp rate hike, and the dot plot was shifted even higher—most likely another hike within the year. Waish—he took off from the press conference in under 30 minutes and didn’t give a single forward-looking guidance. It’s hawkish to the point of absurdity.
The market reaction was equally direct: the Dow slid by more than 800 points at one point, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed back above 5%, and gold dropped more than $100 from its highs.
$BTC being under pressure in the short term is totally normal—until inflation is brought down, don’t fantasize about a flood of liquidity.
But
$NEAR is a bit interesting: Bitwise has just filed its sixth ETF amendment, and it even includes staking yield, with a management fee of 0.75%. With macro conditions this tight, institutions are still laying the groundwork—this suggests long-term money hasn’t run.
On the other side, two Robinhood employees were charged with crypto trading fraud and each reportedly made over $50,000; the stock price fell 5%. Add to that diesel prices surging to $6.31 per gallon, a new all-time high—people’s wallets are getting drained, and liquidity is the real boss of coin prices.
My take is simple: don’t go heavy during the rate-hike cycle. Keep your powder dry and wait for the market to fully flush out panic. Surviving is the most important thing in a geo + monetary one-two punch environment.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储加息 #NEARETF #加密货币 #Web3