野原小新

Decided to create a VIP group for the buddies who earned commissions~~~
I'll be sharing my trading strategies in the group~~~
Trading opinions~~~
Trading tactics~~~

Casual streamer~~~ not trading a lot~~
But I hope that the new buddies who earned commissions~~
Can make some profits in this market~~~

Group invite has already been sent~~~
If you missed it, you can check the group chat notifications~~
Or just DM me~~~

How to add the chat room on Binance homepage!!
1. Press and hold the recommended section on the homepage, a menu will pop up → Click on edit homepage
2. Click the little yellow plus sign at the bottom~~ to enter the addable modules interface
3. Choose to add the chat room module
4. To add friends, you can search by Binance ID: for example, my ID number is my commission invite code~~
You can search 1068237774 to add as a friend and then use the chat feature.

Someone transferred a sum of money to Hyperliquid last night, and then started betting that BTC would drop.

Here’s how the story goes: Yesterday evening, a new address (starting with 0x6046) first received 992,000 USDC from another address. As soon as it arrived—about a minute and a half later—it opened a BTC short position. Then, feeling it wasn’t enough, it topped up the margin in two more transactions, adding roughly 1.6 million USDC. That brought the total to $2.592 million, and it shorted 559.4 BTC in batches. The average entry price was $79,318, using 20x leverage.

His thesis was that BTC had already topped.

But today, BTC surged straight above $80,840, up 4.3% in the past 24 hours. The value of his short position is $45.218 million, with an unrealized loss of $850,000. His liquidation price has been pushed up to $82,896.5—leaving only 2.5% until liquidation.

More importantly: he didn’t place a stop-loss order, and he didn’t set any partial close orders. Those 559 BTC shorts are being held stubbornly. He is currently the largest and closest-to-liquidation short on Hyperliquid.

If BTC rises another 2%, the liquidation would buy back those 559 BTC, pushing the price up again—getting the follower shorts swept at the same time. The historical script has played out in February, April, and May: once these shorts get blown up, people often flip and chase longs in the other direction.

Conditions for the thesis to fail: BTC falls below $79,318 (his entry price)—and the story goes in reverse.

August 25 SOL Market Analysis $SOL

SOL Key Support: 96.47

It can’t fall any further—bulls continue

Support Zones: 96.47 82.93 90.69

Resistance Zones: 106 114 119

SOL is very likely unable to drop any further~~

If it breaks above 106 but doesn’t come back down, it’s recommended to focus on low-long positions

ETH Market Analysis for August 25, $ETH

Key support for ETH: 2388 2395
It won’t break down here—bulls continue upward.

What we can see for the current pullback is a high on the 4-hour chart, but the structure is very strong.
There is a possibility of high-range consolidation: the price doesn’t drop, and the MACD rebounds directly off the zero line to break above the highs.

Key resistance zone: 2525-2555 A breakout could push to 2620.

Intraday suggestion: mainly look for long entries on dips.

August 25th BTC market analysis $BTC

BTC weekly line opens higher. Key support below: 77644
Intraday support: 78300-78057

Currently the 4-hour chart is at a high level, with a risk of a pullback
But overall the structure is very strong, and there is a high likelihood of correcting the line without changing the price
Price is consolidating at the high level. The MACD returns to the zero axis, and there is a direct rebound

So intraday, the focus is still on going long on dips:
Support given in the live room below:
78309 78057 77644

Key resistance above: 81700 82217

82000 is the BTC key weekly meridian line. If it breaks through ~~ the market may reverse and end the bear market

QCP says this week’s focus shifts to three major macro variables. My first reaction wasn’t to guess which three they are—it was to ask: what does that 20% last week amount to? They only said to watch the macro after everything had already gone up. Is this trading in advance, or have they already exhausted it all?

The Ministry of Finance’s buyback doubling, and ETF inflows—these are things that have already happened. Using them to explain last week is fine. But turning around and dumping the spotlight on macro data that hasn’t even been released yet feels off. This is looking for reasons for the next leg of the market, and even the reasons are for things that haven’t happened.

If they really rely on macro to set the direction, last week shouldn’t have risen so smoothly. Now bringing out macro after the fact is like adding a ticket stub after the ride.

Take a step back. I’m not buying this explanation.

Storage of this mess is happening again. Yesterday, Sandisk and SK Hynix were still like memory price increases in a relay for AI; today, Sandisk -6.05%, Hynix -5.41%, and Micron -3.26%—all of it was given back in a single day.

The memory story can’t even hold up for a day. In this market, what main storyline are we supposed to expect?

It’s that time again to review. After the rise, someone immediately comes out to take credit, saying that U.S. Treasury long-end buybacks and ETF inflows together pushed the market higher.

QCP’s point is similar: increased long-end Treasury buybacks, with ETF money not stopping, and the market gets pushed along.

Last Monday, BTC touched 79,500, up more than 20%, its strongest week since March 2024.

But what we should watch most isn’t Bitcoin—it’s the Treasury. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield was on the verge of pressing up toward 5.3%, the highest since 2007. Then the Treasury issued a single announcement: starting September 9, long-end buybacks would be increased from up to $2 billion to at least $4 billion. The yield promptly pulled back on the spot.

It’s as if the Treasury itself stepped in and put a foot on the brakes for rates. That 20% in “BTC” isn’t an isolated thing—it’s the same story as the rates market.

They want me to track this week’s three major macro variables, and none of them are even listed.

Up if it wants to rise, down if it wants to fall—don’t bother me with these terms.

40 billion.

The Ministry of Finance doubled the long-end repo from 20 billion to 40 billion. My first reaction wasn’t to look at government bonds—I went back to look at Bitcoin. It surged more than 20% last week, touching 79,500, its strongest weekly performance since March 2024.

What’s even more exciting is that these two things happened at the same time. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries once topped 5.3%, the highest since 2007. The long end was getting out of control, so the Ministry of Finance stepped in to cover it themselves first. With rates this expensive and the coin still printing big green candles, this money doesn’t look like it’s waiting for rate cuts—it looks like it’s searching for a hedge.

QCP says ETF funds have also come in. I’m not sure whether this basket really holds, but the logic is already different from earlier this year. What I’m excited about isn’t just the rise—it’s that the reasons for the rise have changed.

If this rationale continues to build, the coin won’t just be moving with macro anymore—it will be acting as macro itself.

August 24 BTC market analysis $BTC

Today, BTC just opened a new weekly candle, and it only barely closed near 77559

From the order book, the move is not as strong as the “second biscuit”
The key is whether it can break through the pressure range 77380-79232-82200
If it breaks, it may reverse

At present, on the daily timeframe, everything is trying to push upward; for now, we’re not considering going short in the short term

Support below: 74458-74070. As long as it doesn’t break below this level, the market is strong, and we can still look for a rebound afterward

Next, we’ll observe whether it can consolidate at a high level. After a high-level consolidation, the probability of pushing higher is greater

For today: we still need a pullback to the support below to confirm it’s valid, and then there will be a chance to keep pushing higher

August 24 ETH Market Analysis $ETH

ETH's market trend is relatively clear

The weekly neckline is in the 2385-2365 range. As long as this range is not broken, the outlook remains bullish.
Today a new weekly candle has opened, and the price is holding above 2385.
The market is strong.

However, the 4-hour chart is currently at a high level, so more time is needed to confirm the effectiveness of the support below.
Upper resistance: 2525 2555 If this is broken effectively, the next resistance is at 2620.

For intraday short-term trading, you can consider: 2385-2395-2355, a short-term long here.

For shorting, I personally still recommend waiting a while longer.

Everyone in the crypto circle is saying that the giant whale dropped 7,700 BTC in three days—more than $570 million. So why not run?

My fingers are itching. When I first heard it, my instinct was to short a position too. But when you break it down, I just can’t bring myself to do it.

Those 7,700 coins weren’t dumped in a single day. They were spread out over three days, and today alone it was another 2,700. If it were truly in a hurry to escape, it wouldn’t be so finely sliced up. It looks more like it’s borrowing momentum—borrowing whatever buy pressure is in the market, converting its own coins into someone else’s money, and trying not to let the price collapse so hard that it hurts itself.

The most awkward part is that in the momentum it’s borrowing, it may already include people like me—someone who sees the news and starts itching to trade. If I want to short, it wants there to be someone to take the other side.

Not shorting today. Since my hands are itching, let it itch instead.

A giant whale reduced another 2,000 BTC around dawn. Over the past month, this address has already sold a total of 9,513 coins, worth 620 million yuan.

On average, more than 300 per day. It’s not a panicked sell-off; it’s taking small bites out every day, slowly unloading. Today’s 2,000 coins were also sold during a rebound.

The batch of short sellers mentioned earlier is still stopping out and buying back. Here, the giant whale is slowly distributing. When these two forces push against each other, the price just grinds in that range. Don’t guess the direction first—let’s see who runs out of patience first.

Gold rose 2.36%, Micron rose 4.92%, SK Hynix rose 3.19%, while the S&P 500 was only down 0.02%. Today’s money is buying “things that get more expensive,” not buying technology growth.

Crypto stocks were lifted by the same gust of wind: MARA +5.65%, MSTR +5.26%, Coinbase +5.08%. But MSTR was up 20% yesterday and is down to just 5% today—today it surged from 108 to 127 and then back to 119, with an intra-day swing of nearly 18 points. Chasers have already taken a ride on a roller coaster.

Yesterday I said this was due to expectations of regulation; today it looks more like a bunch of money searching for “baskets that will get more expensive”—with gold, memory, and crypto stocks all being stuffed into the same basket. Mining companies’ gains were not any worse than MSTR’s, suggesting this isn’t a handful of policy-driven stocks dancing on their own, but rather the entire sector moving higher. But since the rally is so scattered, I’m not sure whether this is the start of a new trend or the rapid end of the old one.