野原小新

Decided to create a VIP group for the buddies who earned commissions~~~
I'll be sharing my trading strategies in the group~~~
Trading opinions~~~
Trading tactics~~~

Casual streamer~~~ not trading a lot~~
But I hope that the new buddies who earned commissions~~
Can make some profits in this market~~~

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How to add the chat room on Binance homepage!!
1. Press and hold the recommended section on the homepage, a menu will pop up → Click on edit homepage
2. Click the little yellow plus sign at the bottom~~ to enter the addable modules interface
3. Choose to add the chat room module
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You can search 1068237774 to add as a friend and then use the chat feature.

Kalshi raised 750 million, valuing it at 40 billion. In May it was only 22 billion; three months later it nearly doubled. Sequoia and Wellington have both come in too. If you put these numbers in crypto terms, they could rank in the top ten for FDV. But since it doesn’t issue tokens—it's purely equity—there’s basically no reaction on the trading screen.

What’s worth pondering is where the money actually went. Prediction markets and the crypto crowd betting on news are really the same group of people. Kalshi is compliant, supports leverage, and can also trade macro events. After getting the funds, it will most likely subsidize market making, and undercut fees to poach users. On the crypto side, BTC is churning around 63,000, LINK is up 5.6%, UNI is down 5.3%, and there’s no clear main theme. Once this compliant casino smooths out the user experience, high-volatility stories might not be able to pull people back the way they used to.

I’m a bit unsure—maybe the thing that steals crypto liquidity in the future won’t be regulation, but this kind of more convenient compliant casino instead. Let’s wait and see.

Kraken’s parent company, Payward, reported adjusted revenue of $508 million in the second quarter, up 17% year over year. Deposit accounts surged to 6.6 million, up 42%. However, trading volume fell to 310 billion, down 13%.

The biggest misalignment is right in front of you: accounts are up by nearly half, yet trading is down.

What does that mean? Retail hasn’t left—it’s just that once they came in, they don’t know what to do. There’s no story in the market that gives them a reason to take action. Registration, adding funds, and waiting can all happen at the same time, but the final step didn’t follow through. For traders, these new accounts are potential fuel—but not yet actual trading.

And since Kraken’s revenue can still grow, it shows that the way it makes money has already decoupled from trading volume. Staking, wealth management, and institutional services are what drive revenue. The less an exchange depends on trading, the colder it tends to be toward retail market activity—it won’t randomly push coins just to inflate volume.

So don’t treat an exchange’s revenue growth as a direct bull-market signal. User numbers are genuinely higher, but so is the fact that they’re not trading. The market is stuck in a rather dull spot right now: more people want to enter, but no one is willing to fire the first shot.

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Everyone is waiting for rate cuts, but the commodity market has already hammered those assumptions into the ground: over the past year, heating oil is up 92%, silver 72%, gasoline 52%, and copper 47%. Such extreme gains don’t look like the eve of a recession—they look like a repricing on the cost side. Meanwhile, the market is still betting that the Federal Reserve will pivot toward easing; that’s a rate-cut expectation that lags the curve—black humor.

Look closely at the structure: this isn’t a broad-based commodity bull market. Cocoa and lean hogs are still falling, which suggests global demand hasn’t overheated. What’s really surging is energy and industrial metals—more like supply constraints plus restocking. This is the most troublesome kind of inflation: rate cuts won’t cure it, and may even add fuel for upstream producers. The looser the central bank, the more companies dare to replenish inventories, making copper and oil harder to fall. The result is a feedback loop: the more the market bets on rate cuts, the higher commodities rise, and the harder it becomes for rate-cut expectations to come true.

On the crypto side, there are signs of unease. BTC is now at $62,792, down 1.45% over the past 24 hours, and ETH is also stuck near $1,874. It’s not treating BTC as an inflation hedge; rather, it’s treating it like a risk asset as liquidity expectations tighten—pulling back first. What to watch for is this: if commodities rally again and rate-cut expectations get knocked down, risk assets will be repriced first. At this level, don’t comfort yourself with the idea of “stagflation being good for BTC.”

Don’t rush to say, “Crypto winter is here.” The current situation isn’t that no one is telling stories—it’s that capital isn’t willing to price most stories. The market has shifted from “buying narratives” to “buying only certainty.”

I’ll break it down into five points.

First, liquidity is shrinking. In Q2, the total crypto market cap kept falling. Spot trading volume clearly declined, and even the total supply of stablecoins contracted. Stablecoins are this market’s most honest “water faucet.” If they aren’t rising, it means no incremental capital has come in. Without new money, rotation is just insiders cannibalizing each other’s positions, and it can’t spark a big run.

Second, macro conditions are still weighing on risk appetite. Rate expectations, geopolitics, oil prices—everything keeps rattling around. Capital would rather sit in cash, gold, and large-cap U.S. stocks than touch high-volatility small coins first. Digital-asset products have seen net outflows for weeks in a row—that’s capital voting with its feet.

Third, institutional money only recognizes BTC and ETH. ETFs can hold up major assets, but that doesn’t mean it’s “alt season” just because an ETF exists. The market is choosing projects, not buying an entire sector blindly.

Fourth, there are too many old narratives and too little realization. AI, RWA, L2, DeFi, MEME—everyone is talking about them. But many tokens still carry unlock schedules and selling pressure, and real revenue is close to zero. Capital is only willing to underwrite a small set of assets that actually have income, buybacks, user growth, and clear event-driven catalysts.

Fifth, trading heat is being diverted. U.S. stocks, AI, precious metals, prediction markets, tokenized U.S. stocks—everyone is competing for the same batch of high-risk capital. Within crypto, there isn’t a single super-mainline narrative strong enough to lift the entire market.

So the conclusion isn’t “a stagnant dead pond.” It’s a “selective market”: projects with real cash flow or strong catalysts will move, while most coins just trade sideways with BTC and then go nowhere.

In one sentence: it’s not that crypto investors aren’t here—it’s that the market has changed from “buying narratives” to “buying only certainty.” When trading now, first ask how much “certainty” the target has, then talk about what story it tells.

The invalidation conditions are also straightforward: when the total stablecoin supply starts rising again, when alts relative to BTC resume outperforming, and when new narratives can lift an entire sector rather than just sending individual coins into random frenzy—if any one of these appears, you’ll need to reassess the logic of “only buying certainty.” Until then, don’t add extra drama to yourself with “the bull market is coming.”

sndk People have been asking about it a lot lately #SNDK

The rebound height is 1580—I've mentioned it last night too. Even though I didn't dare to chase too much, I really didn't expect it to spike up to this point so fast.

They say that the US stock market’s movement in a day basically covers a year of BTC’s行情—that’s a very big truth!

1581 is a relatively key resistance level. If we push up from here, the next target is 1680.

From the order book, here we can only look for a small pullback—still within the bullish trend. The rebound may not necessarily be over yet.

1581 is also worth gambling on a short position. But judging from the chart, we need to wait for a larger timeframe to form a top-range “short” setup; that short is probably the one that will be smooth. $SNDKB

August 14 ETH market analysis

ETH’s market is relatively simple.

1860–1841: try going long. If the price does not break down below 1785 decisively, you can look for a rebound.

Key resistance above: 1941. If price breaks through decisively and holds, forming a bullish daily crossover, the rebound may continue.

Key resistance above: 1930, 1950, 1988, 2040.
Key support below: 1861, 1841, 1820, 1806.

Personally, I will continue to hold my spot position. I’ll add in batches at support levels, relative to my plan.
$ETH

BTC Market Analysis on August 14

Last night there was a spike down to 62,800. I placed an order at 62,860 and got filled.

The additional position has been reduced; the core position is still being held.

From today’s chart, the support zone below and the resistance zone above are both relatively clear.

So today you can do both: long at lows and short at highs.

Support levels: 63,000–62,800; 61,800–61,500; 61,080–60,800

Trading plan:
At support you can consider opening the first, second, and third tranches.

For the larger part of the position, only do short-term trades; the core position can be kept depending on how things develop.

Resistance levels: 64,043; 64,200; 64,780; 65,200

For intraday shorting, only consider short-term trades—take profit when price reaches support.

Personally, I think doing a longer-term short at this price is too low and doesn’t offer good value. $BTC

The cryptocurrency exchange Bullish, supported by Peter Thiel (a well-known investor), reported a net loss of $280 million in Q2, while digital asset sales fell 44%. However, adjusted revenue rose by 62%. BTC is currently trading at $63,489, up 0.07% over the past 24 hours—basically unchanged. With losses this big, the market didn’t even seem to notice.

The key mismatch in these figures is this: coin-sale revenue is down by half, yet fee and market-making revenue is up by 60%. This suggests it’s not that they have no business; rather, the business has changed—from making money primarily through selling digital assets to charging tolls based on trading volume. If revenue is up but they still lost $280 million, where did the money go? My guess is that it’s largely due to impairment of proprietary holdings or one-time provisions. If that portion has already been reflected in the Q2 price declines, then the chart doesn’t really need to move. But if they still need to replenish liquidity afterward, that would create new selling pressure.

The market is currently completely immune to this kind of news—not because it’s unimportant, but because Bullish’s scale and background wouldn’t trigger a bank-run. Still, the figure “digital asset sales down 44%” is worth watching: if even top exchanges’ coin-sale revenue is nearly cut in half, that indicates the most profitable part of the industry—token sales and listing fees—is drying up. This isn’t just a problem for Bullish; it reflects that the whole market lacks new capital, so it can only keep propping itself up with trading fees.

My take: Bullish’s loss isn’t a trading signal for today, but it highlights one thing—stop using exchange news to judge the BTC direction. BTC is consolidating around 63,000. It’s not that no one is losing money; it’s that where losses show up is on the balance sheet, not in the price.

The invalidation conditions are straightforward: if Bullish—or any other exchange—discloses large-scale crypto asset sell-offs, then the market would reprice; otherwise, this is just background noise. Don’t overinterpret it.

SanDisk (SNDK) is up tonight. What the market is buying isn’t “NAND prices are rising again”—it’s an action of tearing off labels. It wants to strip the phrase “memory-cycle stocks” from its own identity.

Break it down into three things. First, the Aug 5 earnings report was already strong: quarterly revenue was about US$9.97 billion, up 51% quarter over quarter. But the company itself said that roughly two-thirds of the growth came from “higher pricing.” In other words, most of this quarter’s profits were generated by price increases, not by shipping volume. Second, the Investor Day on Aug 13 delivered the key blow: it provided a financial model for FY2028 through FY2030, and it also promised that after its investment business, excess cash would be returned to shareholders at 100%. Third, SanDisk and Kioxia also released a new generation of QLC flash aimed at AI and data-intensive scenarios.

So the funding trade is essentially this mix: performance delivery, the AI storage narrative, and expectations for long-term buybacks. The logic behind cyclical stocks is “when price hikes top out, it crashes.” But the market is now willing to re-rate it as a “high-margin infrastructure company.”

One vulnerability you should pay most attention to: that two-thirds growth driven by higher pricing is the softest spot in this entire revaluation. Once NAND prices peak and start to fall, this “not a cyclical stock” filter will be the first thing to crack. Chasing it now is basically buying the premise that “prices are no longer subject to cyclical volatility.”

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The U.S. aircraft carrier is mobilizing… …Let’s fight!!

SanDisk is going crazy~~~#SNDK

Mr. Bai is getting cooler and cooler~

PPI data favorable~~a little bit~~