野原小新

Decided to create a VIP group for the buddies who earned commissions~~~
I'll be sharing my trading strategies in the group~~~
Trading opinions~~~
Trading tactics~~~

Casual streamer~~~ not trading a lot~~
But I hope that the new buddies who earned commissions~~
Can make some profits in this market~~~

Group invite has already been sent~~~
If you missed it, you can check the group chat notifications~~
Or just DM me~~~

How to add the chat room on Binance homepage!!
1. Press and hold the recommended section on the homepage, a menu will pop up → Click on edit homepage
2. Click the little yellow plus sign at the bottom~~ to enter the addable modules interface
3. Choose to add the chat room module
4. To add friends, you can search by Binance ID: for example, my ID number is my commission invite code~~
You can search 1068237774 to add as a friend and then use the chat feature.

MicroStrategy stocks, the circle thing flew away~~~
Did BTC and ETH, didn’t do these two~~

Gold has reached 4442—up 1.54% over the past 24 hours, just barely missing 4445. The S&P is still climbing; the Nasdaq-100 is basically flat. The US market doesn’t look like it’s in a risk-off mood.

But MSTR is down 1.23%, Coinbase is down 0.14%, and RIOT, MARA, and CLSK are all slightly lower. For assets that also don’t “rely on central banks,” gold is rising while crypto-themed stocks are pulling back.

I don’t really understand the logic behind this gold move. It’s not a crisis—US stocks aren’t down. Maybe the dollar is weakening, or expectations for real interest rates are moving lower. In any case, crypto hasn’t caught up.

Optical communications is falling pretty oddly today. AAOI is down nearly 12%, Coherent 11.7%, and even Corning is down 7.7%. Two optical module ETFs are down 8.27 and 10.07 respectively—there’s no gap versus the individual stocks. This suggests it’s not one company’s earnings report that blew up; rather, money is pulling out of the entire sector, and passive funds are running too.

Optical modules have long been considered the most certain tool-seller within AI hardware—the more compute you stack, the stronger the interconnect demand. But now it’s also the first thing being cut. Once crowded trading loosens up, ETFs are even harder to run than individual stocks, because no one can distinguish who’s good and who’s bad—people cut first and ask questions later.

I haven’t seen any specific negative catalyst yet. Just looking at how it’s falling, it feels like someone is front-running.

Anthropic’s annual revenue fell short of expectations, and all three major U.S. stock indexes declined. But the Dow is down only 0.22%, the Nasdaq 1.32%—can this really be called “dragging down” the market? The drop is mainly in AI chips: Nvidia down 2.36%, AMD down 4.30%, Broadcom down 3.20%. Everything else in the market is basically unchanged.

More subtly, Anthropic isn’t even public. A private company missing on revenue can drag down the sentiment across the entire semiconductor sector, showing how much of this round’s AI pricing is expectation versus actual revenue. When revenue growth was faster before, no one questioned it; now that it’s slightly lower, everyone is pulling out.

SanDisk is also falling. Yesterday it said it would give back half of the chase; today, as memory price increases also retreat, that line of momentum has cooled too. In other words, the only AI sub-sector that had any real heat lately is also sputtering out.

Instead, I want to see whether BTC holds up. If U.S. stocks’ AI sentiment keeps cooling and crypto pretends nothing is happening, that would be true desensitization—but it won’t last long.

August 19, $BTC Market Outlook Analysis
Last night, when it rebounded to 65,000, I reduced my long position by some amount...~
You can regard this as a phase high.
Today, expect a pullback within the day. Key supports below: 64089-63900-63800.
It’s best not to break below~~~ Otherwise, the rebound scenario may continue.
If it breaks down, we need to look for a deeper pullback: 63200-63500-62800.

At present, the daily chart has closed with a bullish (green) candle, and the closing price is 64,600.

So today’s pullback will determine whether we can push up and form an even higher high.

The most important resistance level above is still 65,200. This is the dividing line for strength/weakness on the monthly chart.

There are also 13 days until a new monthly line opens.
If it opens higher and stays above 65,200, I think it will still rebound.

Personally, I reduced my long position. Today’s pullback will be added back.
I’ll keep holding spot—no changes.

August 19th $ETH market analysis

ETH rebounded, but 1920 still couldn’t effectively break through~~

Today, expect a small pullback intraday. Support levels have moved up: 1913-1906, 1899-1889, 1872

Key resistance above: 1920-1941

Personally, I’d still focus on going long on dips. If it breaks below 1870, cut it off.
The risk is that the 2-day line resistance at 1941 may hold. If it still doesn’t break, liquidity in August is generally poor.
So there’s always a possibility of re-testing deeper to find support.
But if the 1-day line has successfully formed a golden cross above right now, the chance of a breakout is high.
Even if the pullback here is relatively deep, it should rebound afterward.

So my personal bet is on a 1-day-line rebound setup—just manage your position size.

Tom Lee’s Bitmine bought another $19 million worth of ETH, saying it’s only 4% away from having 5% of the total supply. ETH is now 1895, up 0.11% in 24h. BTC is up 1.28%.

One institution said it’s almost holding 5% of the ETH, yet the price is showing absolutely no reaction. Either the buy orders were already absorbed, or nobody really believes it. I lean toward nobody believing it.

“The completion rate is 96%” sounds the strangest. Buying coins isn’t like hitting KPIs—why talk in a progress bar? It’s like reporting to someone.

I’m more curious about whether that 5% is being held down, or whether it will move. With a position of this size, the price somehow doesn’t get affected at all. I want to know whether it has ever moved.

Bloomberg Global Long-Term Government Bond Index yield is 4.2%, the highest since July 2008. After July 2008, what happened? Lehman. But BTC is now at 64,138, and over the past 24 hours it’s still up.

The market seems to be moving separately from history. Auctions are still able to be sold, and repo funding hasn’t stopped. OECD countries have $61 trillion in debt; next year they need to borrow $18 trillion. Once the low-interest old debt matures, only then will high yields truly become a pressure to pay interest. In other words, this isn’t a blowout—it’s a slow leak.

BTC isn’t reacting. I’m not sure whether it thinks it’s still too early, or whether it has become completely desensitized to long-term bond yields.

August 18, $ETH market analysis

The ETH order book is very simple.

Support below: 1862–1870. As long as it doesn’t break, look for a rebound.

This rebound is indicated on the 1-day chart.

The breakout is above the 2-day resistance: 1920–1941.

ETH’s 4-hour chart has already turned to the upside, while the 15-minute chart shows divergence. Therefore, for intraday trading, look for a pullback to the 1-hour support: 1895.

If it breaks down below the support: 1885, then 1855.

Personally, I will continue holding my ETH spot.
Yesterday, at around 1870, I added to my coin-margined position. When the rebound reached around 1890, I reduced some. I’ll keep the core position. If it pulls back today, I will consider buying back the reduced amount.

August 18th $BTC market analysis

BTC broke through yesterday’s key support at 63,500.

From the chart, the market on smaller timeframes is strengthening; today you can consider going long on pullbacks.

Support below: 63,620 63,215 62,700

Resistance above is still plentiful: 64,700 65,300 66,400

Today’s chart is much better than yesterday at least.

The key is how the 15-minute higher level digests/absorbs this move.

The 15-minute timeframe is a non-bearish (bullish) level, but it’s already in a high zone.

A pullback is needed for confirmation; the key supports are: 64,147 63,879

Right now there is support below and pressure above; intraday still follows the range-bound “up-and-down on the lower side” rhythm.

Personally, I’m still holding my spot position and won’t change it. I added longs at 62,700 below, but I’ve already reduced some position size.

Keep the core position unchanged. If there’s a pullback today, I’ll consider rebuilding the reduced portion depending on how things look.

Storage chain is drawing the most attention today. SK hynix closed near the highs, up 4.16%; Micron and SanDisk also rose, but Microsoft fell by more than 1 point, and Nvidia barely moved. This isn’t the AI sector rising—it’s money buying into the narrower line of rising memory prices.

SanDisk surged to 1772 during the session, but has since pulled back to 1705; that late-chasing jump has given back about half. Seeing three of them rising together, there’s also some hot air inside.

Even colder is the crypto side. Coinbase is down 1.04%, MicroStrategy (MSTR) is down 0.80%. The Nasdaq is still up for the moment, but these two are sliding. BTC is still doing the same slow grind. AI money is squeezing into a very narrow opening—so narrow that it seems to have little to do with crypto.

I honestly don’t get it: even U.S. stock AI platform shares can’t move on their own—so why would money spill over into BTC?

Binance futures launches a bunch of TradFi perpetuals, using USDT as margin. My first reaction wasn’t to look at which instruments they are, but to feel that crypto exchanges are starting to admit there’s no “story” left on their side.

BTC has been hovering around 63,324, while ETH is only 1,893. The spot market isn’t moving, retail traders aren’t making moves, and the exchange has to find something to keep you trading here. With no crypto market momentum, they bring stocks, gold, and FX in, offer 7x24 leverage, and people holding USDT don’t need to leave the market—they can keep gambling.

This is more direct than high-yield wealth management. Wealth management locks you in so you can’t go; TradFi perpetuals give you a reason to keep trading, and they still collect fees.

I’m just curious: when the money in the crypto market can directly do traditional finance inside the exchange, is BTC itself still important? Right now it feels like a prop.

August 17 ETH Market Analysis

“Second Bing” filled a long order at 1870. Around 1895, the position has already been partially reduced; the core position is being held and not moved.
ETH’s key support is at: 1862-1855-1806
Key resistance is at: 1920 2023

From the chart, ETH is stronger than BTC.
The key is the daily line: whether it can cross above after-hours (a golden cross), meaning 1860 must not close below on a body basis.
Right now it’s moving low on the hourly chart. If today can close above 1855, the market will show strength.

Personally, I’m still holding spot and haven’t moved, because my cost basis was built up from below; I also did some T trades in the middle.
So we’re still far from my entry cost.

In this pullback, I’ve been continuously taking longs relative to the “base” (比本位), doing several rounds of T.
Currently, it’s still in the positioning/building stage relative to the “base.”

From the chart, the pullback hasn’t confirmed the end yet—it needs time.

If it breaks below 1862, pay attention to 1785 below; if both break, I will consider reducing the position and watching. $ETH