野原小新

Decided to create a VIP group for the buddies who earned commissions~~~
I'll be sharing my trading strategies in the group~~~
Trading opinions~~~
Trading tactics~~~

Casual streamer~~~ not trading a lot~~
But I hope that the new buddies who earned commissions~~
Can make some profits in this market~~~

Group invite has already been sent~~~
If you missed it, you can check the group chat notifications~~
Or just DM me~~~

How to add the chat room on Binance homepage!!
1. Press and hold the recommended section on the homepage, a menu will pop up → Click on edit homepage
2. Click the little yellow plus sign at the bottom~~ to enter the addable modules interface
3. Choose to add the chat room module
4. To add friends, you can search by Binance ID: for example, my ID number is my commission invite code~~
You can search 1068237774 to add as a friend and then use the chat feature.

Nonfarm data is favorable~~ but that's about it~~~

BTC is back to 64,100, up 1.62%.

Don’t get too excited yet. A 1.62% move used to be called a sideways range three years ago; today it’s called a rebound. The whole crypto market has had its definition of “up” recalibrated once by the bear market.

But the thing you should really be watching today isn’t in the crypto space—it’s out there. Last week, tech stocks had a violent rebound: the Nasdaq 3x long gained 8.89% in one day, AMD rose 8.62%, and SanDisk jumped 11.61%. In the same period, BTC only rose 1.62%. Today it’s again 1.62%. If this number keeps showing up repeatedly, it won’t be coincidence anymore—it’s a sign that the anchoring effect is weakening.

What’s even more twisted is that gold is still rising. The day gold hit a new high at 4,075, I said that when tech stocks and gold rise at the same time, it’s like “schizophrenia” in markets. Now BTC is stuck in the middle—neither keeping pace with tech’s upside, nor catching the safe-haven glow from gold.

So today’s 64,100 isn’t a breakout signal. It’s saying one thing: BTC is turning into an asset that’s “of no benefit to either side.” It can’t rise with risk assets, and it can’t rise with safe-haven assets either.

The only thing that makes this feel a bit less bad is that this rebound happened after the market digested old news of the Iran deal, and before the Non-Farm Payrolls data landed—so it’s a spontaneous repair without new incremental narratives. It suggests that sell pressure in the 63,000–64,000 range has been temporarily absorbed; at least, nobody is rushing to dump from this level.

But don’t assume the direction is set just because it reached 64,100. The Non-Farm Payrolls are right around the corner. The moment the data comes out, this level can be broken just like that.

Haha~~~circle~~~has done the third wave already, it’s around the 62 area~~~~
This is the third time—each time there are surprises~~~
Great stuff~~~

Ever since I got into US stocks~~~
the crypto sector isn’t as appealing anymore~~~

Big bread and two pancakes have been going sideways for almost a month now, with no momentum in terms of making money~~

SanDisk—US stocks are completely going crazy~~~

Today gold also got a taste of it. I chased at 4096, but unfortunately it didn’t retrace, so I couldn’t get the position in!#韩股反弹外资净买入1.4万亿韩元

Will Iran and the U.S. reach a deal? Don’t rush to believe it—first, look at how the market is pricing things.

CNBC says the U.S. and Iran may reach an agreement. But the news flow is a complete tangle: one side says there’s progress, while the other says it hasn’t gone that far. Still, the market has already acted as if it’s happening—S&P 500 shares have surged to a new high with a market cap above 7 trillion, oil prices are moving lower, and expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen have flipped the supply-demand logic upside down.

This is the most important trading signal today: the market is pricing in “geopolitical easing,” regardless of whether an agreement is ultimately signed.

What does this mean for BTC? First the conclusion: don’t treat the 64,000 range consolidation as a lagging reaction to the favorable geopolitics. Geopolitical easing is good for traditional risk assets—U.S. stocks and sectors sensitive to oil prices. BTC has barely managed to track the rally this time, suggesting that investors don’t see it as the main character in this story.

When would this view fail? When U.S. stocks open tonight, check whether oil is truly continuing to fall and whether the Nasdaq is truly holding its ground. If oil keeps dropping and the Nasdaq rises, then if the sentiment pricing is confirmed, BTC can follow—that’s what matters. But if oil rebounds and the Nasdaq spikes then fades, then today is all about sentiment, and tomorrow it will likely all give back.

Don’t speculate about what’s happening at the negotiating table. Watch where the money actually goes.

August 5 ETH Market Analysis~~
Previously ETH rose higher than BTC~~~ The market moved faster, one step ahead of BTC~~~

Conversely~~~ when falling, it also lags BTC, one step behind~~~
So the current adjustment progress for ETH will require more time~~~

What it looks like on the chart is~~ weakness~~ and a lack of rebound strength~~~

BTC has already adjusted to the 6-hour timeframe~~ while “ersanbing” is still on the 4-hour timeframe~~

Key resistances above: 1881 1940. Only if it breaks through there~~ will there be hope to go above 2000~~~

Key supports below: 1855 1820 1806 1795

1847 can be taken as a very important dividing line~~~ if it doesn’t break down~~~ then the market isn’t considered weak~~~

From the current chart~· both low-buy and high-short setups can be done. There is a clear resistance zone~~ and support zone~~~ As long as the position size is safe~~ both sides can be profited from~~~$ETH #ETH

August 5th BTC market analysis~~
Today, BTC’s 2-day line has just opened new momentum~~~ and the close is not bad~~ but there still hasn’t been a small breakthrough above the resistance zone~~~ 642-645-650

Key support today: 63550-62860. If it breaks down: 62200-61500-60900

Recently, the rebound strength has been somewhat weak~~ and if you look at it the other way~~ the downside strength is also weak~~

So it’s still ranging, oscillating within a range~~ with support below and resistance above~~~ but liquidity is also lacking~~~ it’s basically not being played~ U.S. stock market volatility is so good~~ and it has drained quite a bit of blood~~

Personally, I still lean toward expecting a weak pullback followed by a decline~~~ and there’s a chance it could play out a rebound~~~

That’s why I’ve been looking for opportunities to add to spot positions~~~

But based on the current chart~~ unless you catch the needle-like entry point for a long at the low~~ and unless the market forms a breakout that clearly signals a reversal, it won’t come out so quickly~~~ it will need a long time to grind~~~

So for crypto lately, we still need patience—slowly wait~~~ #Bitcoin recovers the $64,000 level

The Nasdaq Technology ETF paused trading on August 5—and this is more serious than it looks.

The Invesco Nasdaq Technology ETF (Nasdaq Technology ETF) tracks a bunch of tech stocks that everyone knows well—Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and AMD. It’s not that one company has a problem; instead, a whole basket of stocks suddenly can’t be priced.

I haven’t seen any official explanation for the detailed reason behind the suspension, but what kind of day is August 5? It’s the three-day “blackout” period before the Non-Farm Payrolls report, when the market is waiting for direction. A technology ETF choosing to pause trading at this time likely has only two possibilities: either something is wrong with liquidity, or something that hasn’t been disclosed yet is starting to build momentum.

What concerns me most is the timing. If this were just a routine technical halt, why would it be scheduled to coincide with the trading session? And why here—especially in the context of U.S. stock index futures already weakening?

Put it in the context of BTC: this shouldn’t be treated like a side-note. In the past month, the short-term correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq Technology stocks has been absurdly high. On the day Nasdaq 3x long surged 8.89%, BTC only moved along passively by 1.62%. But if things go the other way—if there’s trouble in the tech sector—BTC’s selloff usually won’t be discounted.

My instinct is: this isn’t a Crypto-native negative catalyst, but if tonight U.S. tech stocks trigger panic selling because this ETF is suspended, BTC will most likely be dragged down too. The support around 63,000 is nothing in the face of liquidity-driven panic.

The only uncertainty is the scale. If it’s just an operational issue with the ETF and trading resumes normally within a day or two, that’s basically noise. But if behind the scenes a major institution is getting liquidated or there’s concentrated closing out across tech stocks, then it’s not that simple.

We’re still in a phase with insufficient information. My advice isn’t to bet on direction—it’s to watch the Nasdaq futures’ move tonight. If after the suspension news the futures clearly weaken, then tomorrow morning it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see BTC back below 63,000.

Not every burst of volatility is worth trading. In moments like this, it matters more whether you can withstand an unexpected low open with your current position than whether you can guess the direction.

The Nasdaq 3x leveraged long ETF rose 8.89% in one day. AMD rose 8.62%, and SanDisk (Flash) rose 11.61%.

You think the market is throwing a party. But gold is also up to 4075, hitting a recent high. That’s the strangest part of today’s trading.

On one side, there’s a violent rebound in semiconductors. On the other, safe-haven assets are making fresh highs. The nice way to call it is “divergence”; the harsh way to call it is “schizophrenia.” There’s only one explanation for this kind of tape: someone is using leverage to chase tech stocks, while someone else is buying gold to hedge uncertainty. Both sides aren’t wrong, but their logics contradict each other—eventually one side will get slapped.

Turning to BTC, there are three scenarios:

Scenario 1: This move in tech stocks is a rebound from oversold conditions, not a trend reversal. AMD and Intel fell too hard earlier, and today’s action is more about short-covering than new money flowing in. If the Nasdaq pushes up and then fades over the next day or two, BTC will likely follow back as well. Because BTC’s short-term correlation with the Nasdaq is currently too high—so high it doesn’t look like a genuine safe-haven asset.

Scenario 2: This rebound is real money entering—Nasdaq breaks above the prior high. Then BTC should be able to ride along somewhat passively, though the magnitude is hard to say. The problem is that in the previous two big tech rallies, BTC didn’t catch up with proportionate upside—its gains relative to the Nasdaq have been diminishing. If it’s the same again this time, it would suggest the “tech-stock anchor effect” on BTC is weakening, which is bad news for bulls.

Scenario 3: Gold keeps rising while tech stocks pull back. This is the scenario I’m most worried about: it would mean the market is truly trading not a tech recovery, but a hedge against the entire financial system risk. If it reaches that point, BTC would most likely rise alongside gold for a bit first, and then get “blood-drained” by liquidity.

Honestly, I can’t make sense of today’s market action for now. If I can’t figure it out, I won’t force a conclusion. The only certainty is that SanDisk is up 11% and gold is up to 4075 at the same time—this combination isn’t common. Either global liquidity suddenly got looser, or someone made a bad bet in one direction. We’ll know in a couple of days.

For now, I can only watch. With BTC at 64,000, in this tape, it means nothing.

BTC is back above 64,000—up 1.62%.

This number itself isn’t really anything to get excited about. In the past 48 hours, it just crawled back from below 63,000, landing right back on the boundary line I mentioned last time—64,000. With volume returning and reclaiming the level, the market is a bit stronger than I expected. Follow the logic, discard the old judgment—there’s nothing to stubbornly argue.

But what’s really worth watching isn’t this level, it’s how that 1.62% move happened.

If I remember the timeline correctly, this rebound took place in the window between geopolitical de-escalation and before the Non-Farm Payrolls release. The Iran deal was old news from the previous trading day, and the Non-Farm Payrolls is something that happened Friday night. So this rally can be understood as: the market neither treated geopolitics as a reason to buy, nor rushed to hedge ahead of the data. It simply repaired itself spontaneously during a vacuum period before a data print.

This kind of market action is the least interesting—and the most honest. It tells me one thing: without incremental narrative, 63,000–64,000 is the current equilibrium zone. There’s no reason to chase higher above it, and no basis for panic below it.

One more detail I’ve been watching—exchange net inflows. The last time I discussed the Coldcard incident, what I feared most was retail moving coins from cold wallets to exchanges—that’s the real, concrete sell pressure. Now that the price can get back to 64,000, it suggests that at least for now there hasn’t been large-scale moving. The self-custody panic has been digested, temporarily. But if inflows suddenly spike over the next few days, this rebound will be paper-thin.

As for the Non-Farm Payrolls—on Friday I already wrote three scenarios, so I won’t repeat them today. I’ll just say one thing: at the moment, 64,000 means nothing in the face of the data. Don’t think the direction is settled just because it reached that level. The second the data comes out, all technical levels have to step aside.

In one sentence, the current market condition: no breakdown, no breakout, no direction. Do what you should do.

Who can verify this?

Coldcard—this line has climbed to a new level again today—not because the wallet is still being attacked, but because Coinkite may be facing legal action.

Key word: “may.” It’s not been filed yet; there’s no formal complaint. At this point, it’s only media reports of “possible legal action.” But that doesn’t stop us from asking a question: when a hardware wallet company faces a class-action lawsuit over a vulnerability that has been hidden for five years, will the whole cold-storage industry’s “security narrative” end up in the defendant’s dock as well?

What’s interesting is that the last company the market collectively abandoned over a security issue was FTX. FTX is the antithesis of centralization; a cold wallet is the final stronghold of decentralization. Yet once a five-year-old vulnerability gets through, the stronghold turns into a sieve.

I’m not worried about that $89 million. What I’m worried about is this—if Coinkite is genuinely sued and the court rules, what does that mean for the entire hardware wallet industry? Will security audit standards be forced to be upgraded? Will more old wallets be dug up for similar “vulnerabilities hidden for years”? This chain reaction is worth more than the stolen BTC value.

But it’s not at that stage yet. “Possible” is just “possible,” not “already.” For now, just mark this line with a ⭐ and keep an eye on what happens next.

Friday 8:30 PM—global traders all have to stare at the same screen.

U.S. July Non-Farm Payrolls, Beijing time August 7 at 8:30 PM. Previous: +57,000. Market expectation: +83,000. I know many people see the forecast and think, “It’s basically locked in.” But let me say something that may not sound pleasant: this forecast itself comes with a seasonal adjustment filter. The real labor market is much uglier than the numbers suggest.

Let’s start with three scenarios, then discuss the truly important variable.

**Scenario 1: Better than expected, >150,000.** The U.S. dollar lifts off immediately, rate-cut expectations get pushed down, and BTC comes under pressure. Everyone will see this playbook. But what I want to remind you today is—don’t just watch the NFP figure. Watch the unemployment rate too. If NFP gets propped up by part-time and temporary workers, and the unemployment rate actually rises, then this “good news” is just paper-thin. The market may spike and then sharply pull back within half an hour—don’t chase longs.

**Scenario 2: In line with expectations, 80,000–100,000.** The market reads it as a soft landing, neutral to slightly positive. This is the scenario I think has the highest probability. But what does “neutral to slightly positive” mean? It means BTC will likely do little to nothing and just wait for the next catalyst. If you’re expecting the NFP to give you direction, you may be disappointed.

**Scenario 3: Worse than expected, <50,000.** Recession worries heat up right away, and rate-cut expectations skyrocket. Many people think that’s good for BTC—rate cuts mean liquidity, so it’s bullish. But in the short term, the playbook is likely: first down, then up—first trade recession panic and a broad risk-asset sell-off without discrimination, then once the market digests that “rate cuts are coming,” it pulls back up again. The drop in the “first down” move could be more than you imagine—don’t rush to bottom-pick. Wait for signs that the market has stabilized.

But what I really want to say is this: **the NFP numbers themselves have become increasingly unreliable.**

June was +57,000, well below the trend, with the official explanation blaming seasonal factors. July is expected to be +83,000 again—this time the market is effectively doing the official “adjustment” for them. The problem is that when markets get more and more used to explaining bad data with “seasonal distortion,” the information content of the data itself keeps falling. The real signal is hidden in hourly wages—if wage growth continues to run hot, even if employment data looks ugly, inflation stickiness will make the Fed less willing to cut rates casually. That is far bigger mid-term pressure on BTC than the NFP headline itself.

So my advice is simple: before 8:30 PM, don’t put heavy bets on direction. The noise in this data is much higher than the signal. Once the data is out, first look at hourly wages and the unemployment rate, then look at the NFP total itself—then make your move.

See you Friday night.

MSTR started tracking BTC’s 200-week moving average.

Not that vague kind of talk about “being related to BTC’s price action.” CoinDesk says it’s a precise technical indicator: the 200-week moving average—MSTR’s stock price trajectory is overlapping with BTC’s 200WMA.

What’s interesting is this: MSTR used to be a “premium proxy” for BTC. It held a large amount of bitcoin, and its stock price was more expensive than its net asset value—essentially, you could buy $1 worth of BTC for $1.2. The market was willing to pay that premium—buying MSTR was more convenient for institutions than directly opening a crypto account to buy BTC.

But now MSTR doesn’t trade on the premium logic anymore. It’s aligning with a technical indicator. The 200-week moving average has historically been a line in the sand for long-term trends in BTC—near this level, major turning points often occur.

MSTR has become a technical indicator of BTC itself.

This isn’t necessarily good or bad. But when a stock’s valuation shifts from “how much BTC it holds” to “where BTC’s 200-week moving average is,” the market stops looking at it as a company. It becomes a BTC derivative. Derivatives don’t need their own narrative—only the direction of the underlying. In the end, Saylor’s bitcoin empire, as far as pricing power goes, still returns to bitcoin itself.